[here4WBB]

I agree with your predicted timing and priorities for who would be the first to be vaccinated.  I don't know if just being at risk because my husband and I are old qualify us for early vaccination.  I think not, and both of us can conduct our work from home.  There might be some benefit in waiting out the first rounds of vaccination and how the science improves. One concern is that vaccination may not work as well on the elderly.  

https://www.scientificamerican.com/artic...ange-that/

If the vaccine was commercially available in late 2020 it is hard to imagine those outside of the highly and moderately paid essential workers (medical, fire, police) would see the vaccine prior to spring 2021.

I don't fall in the first group.   If the vaccine doesn't kill or harm many of those essential workers in the first wave I would guess the vaccine would then become available to lower paid essential workers (public transit, food service, and sanitation) and higher risk groups. 

That would leave me and the rest of the lower priority types eligible for a vaccine in the summer of 2021.   If the groups noted above are doing OK I would have no problem getting vaccinated prior to the potential timing of the 3rd wave, fall 2021.

If only one vaccine is available to me in 2021 I would take it.   If multiple options are likely to become available at roughly the same time I could imagine not taking a vaccine in May 2021 if a better vaccine was likely to be commercially available in the USA in September or October 2021.

Oh - one more caveat - I would want to travel internationally in 2021 or 2022, so I would prefer to take a vaccine that would allow me to travel to Asia and Europe without needing to quarantine for 14 days upon entry.   If the available vaccine is a POTUS-45 "What do you have to lose" type thing that only the USA is using then I would wait for a different vaccine seen as safe AND effective by the EU that would allow me to travel to the world without multi-week quarantines.

[here4WBB]

I agree with your predicted timing and priorities for who would be the first to be vaccinated.  I don't know if just being at risk because my husband and I are old qualify us for early vaccination.  I think not, and both of us can conduct our work from home.  There might be some benefit in waiting out the first rounds of vaccination and how the science improves. One concern is that vaccination may not work as well on the elderly.  

https://www.scientificamerican.com/artic...ange-that/

If the vaccine was commercially available in late 2020 it is hard to imagine those outside of the highly and moderately paid essential workers (medical, fire, police) would see the vaccine prior to spring 2021.

I don't fall in the first group.   If the vaccine doesn't kill or harm many of those essential workers in the first wave I would guess the vaccine would then become available to lower paid essential workers (public transit, food service, and sanitation) and higher risk groups. 

That would leave me and the rest of the lower priority types eligible for a vaccine in the summer of 2021.   If the groups noted above are doing OK I would have no problem getting vaccinated prior to the potential timing of the 3rd wave, fall 2021.

If only one vaccine is available to me in 2021 I would take it.   If multiple options are likely to become available at roughly the same time I could imagine not taking a vaccine in May 2021 if a better vaccine was likely to be commercially available in the USA in September or October 2021.

Oh - one more caveat - I would want to travel internationally in 2021 or 2022, so I would prefer to take a vaccine that would allow me to travel to Asia and Europe without needing to quarantine for 14 days upon entry.   If the available vaccine is a POTUS-45 "What do you have to lose" type thing that only the USA is using then I would wait for a different vaccine seen as safe AND effective by the EU that would allow me to travel to the world without multi-week quarantines.