[teejers1]

My hypothesis is that it is that colder weather is pushing people indoors, where the virus is spreading more efficiently.  If you look at the regional pattern of infections, the first wave hit in the New York area, where there was the greatest travel to and from Europe, where the pandemic was raging.  The second wave hit sun belt states (Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California) in the summer, where warm temperatures pushed people indoors.  The third wave is concentrated in the Midwest and Mountain West (Wyoming, Alaska, Montana), which are areas that were spared previously and where dropping temperatures have pushed people indoors.

BC

My theory:  states hit hard early tend NOT to get hit that hard subsequently, perhaps as a result of vulnerable communities being tagged already, or some form of immunity.  And in all events, the second "wave" isn't nearly as deadly as the first (again, maybe vulnerable communities have already taken prior brunt or virus less damaging or whatever).  States/places relatively unscathed to date, of course, are subject to first-wave damage seen in other places (though perhaps better medical treatment knowledge or less damaging virus may cap things). This is also why I think it possible that, with no vaccine, the numbers of many countries will trend toward each other. Of course, as medical treatment (even without a vaccine) improves, then fatalities should go down over time (hopefully, anyway).

And again, increase in cases where colleges/universities have welcomed kids back is not surprising - and imo, not particularly alarming.

It could well be that more indoor ==> more infections.  But a lot of us are spending an inordinate amount of time indoors now . . . (or maybe it's not inordinate, but just seems that way!).

Dabig, appreciate your updates from SoCal.  If hospitalizations have bottomed out and are rising, well that is concerning.

[teejers1]

My hypothesis is that it is that colder weather is pushing people indoors, where the virus is spreading more efficiently.  If you look at the regional pattern of infections, the first wave hit in the New York area, where there was the greatest travel to and from Europe, where the pandemic was raging.  The second wave hit sun belt states (Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California) in the summer, where warm temperatures pushed people indoors.  The third wave is concentrated in the Midwest and Mountain West (Wyoming, Alaska, Montana), which are areas that were spared previously and where dropping temperatures have pushed people indoors.

BC

My theory:  states hit hard early tend NOT to get hit that hard subsequently, perhaps as a result of vulnerable communities being tagged already, or some form of immunity.  And in all events, the second "wave" isn't nearly as deadly as the first (again, maybe vulnerable communities have already taken prior brunt or virus less damaging or whatever).  States/places relatively unscathed to date, of course, are subject to first-wave damage seen in other places (though perhaps better medical treatment knowledge or less damaging virus may cap things). This is also why I think it possible that, with no vaccine, the numbers of many countries will trend toward each other. Of course, as medical treatment (even without a vaccine) improves, then fatalities should go down over time (hopefully, anyway).

And again, increase in cases where colleges/universities have welcomed kids back is not surprising - and imo, not particularly alarming.

It could well be that more indoor ==> more infections.  But a lot of us are spending an inordinate amount of time indoors now . . . (or maybe it's not inordinate, but just seems that way!).

Dabig, appreciate your updates from SoCal.  If hospitalizations have bottomed out and are rising, well that is concerning.