[BostonCard]

My theory:  states hit hard early tend NOT to get hit that hard subsequently, perhaps as a result of vulnerable communities being tagged already, or some form of immunity.  And in all events, the second "wave" isn't nearly as deadly as the first (again, maybe vulnerable communities have already taken prior brunt or virus less damaging or whatever).  States/places relatively unscathed to date, of course, are subject to first-wave damage seen in other places (though perhaps better medical treatment knowledge or less damaging virus may cap things).  This is also why I think it possible that, with no vaccine, the numbers of many countries will trend toward each other.  Of course, as medical treatment (even without a vaccine) improves, then fatalities should go down over time (hopefully, anyway).







And again, increase in cases where colleges/universities have welcomed kids back is not surprising - and imo, not particularly alarming.


It could well be that more indoor ==> more infections.  But a lot of us are spending an inordinate amount of time indoors now . . . (or maybe it's not inordinate, but just seems that way!).




Dabig, appreciate your updates from SoCal.  If hospitalizations have bottomed out and are rising, well that is concerning.

Thew New York Hassidic community is trying to disprove your hypothesis.  New cases in New York are still well below the peak in April, but are about twice the trough.  Texas is well off its summer peak, but cases are rising again, having never fallen to the pre-summer levels.  Montana had an almost step-jump in the summer, and had cases remained elevated for a while, then has had another big step-jump since then.  Currently, Rt is estimated to be above 1 in 41/51 states + DC (all but MS, DE, ME, TX, WA, OR, CA, GA, DC, WV)



I should have been clearer; it's not being indoors per se, it's being indoors in public.  If you stay isolated in your house, obviously whether you are indoors or outdoors doesn't matter.  But if you are out eating at a restaurant, then it matters if you had dinner in the outdoor tables set up on the sidewalk when the weather was nice, or are forced to eat indoors because the weather has turned south.  Likewise, there's a difference between spending your Saturday playing golf outdoors (very low risk) versus going to a movie theater (moderate risk).



BC

[BostonCard]

My theory:  states hit hard early tend NOT to get hit that hard subsequently, perhaps as a result of vulnerable communities being tagged already, or some form of immunity.  And in all events, the second "wave" isn't nearly as deadly as the first (again, maybe vulnerable communities have already taken prior brunt or virus less damaging or whatever).  States/places relatively unscathed to date, of course, are subject to first-wave damage seen in other places (though perhaps better medical treatment knowledge or less damaging virus may cap things).  This is also why I think it possible that, with no vaccine, the numbers of many countries will trend toward each other.  Of course, as medical treatment (even without a vaccine) improves, then fatalities should go down over time (hopefully, anyway).







And again, increase in cases where colleges/universities have welcomed kids back is not surprising - and imo, not particularly alarming.


It could well be that more indoor ==> more infections.  But a lot of us are spending an inordinate amount of time indoors now . . . (or maybe it's not inordinate, but just seems that way!).




Dabig, appreciate your updates from SoCal.  If hospitalizations have bottomed out and are rising, well that is concerning.

Thew New York Hassidic community is trying to disprove your hypothesis.  New cases in New York are still well below the peak in April, but are about twice the trough.  Texas is well off its summer peak, but cases are rising again, having never fallen to the pre-summer levels.  Montana had an almost step-jump in the summer, and had cases remained elevated for a while, then has had another big step-jump since then.  Currently, Rt is estimated to be above 1 in 41/51 states + DC (all but MS, DE, ME, TX, WA, OR, CA, GA, DC, WV)



I should have been clearer; it's not being indoors per se, it's being indoors in public.  If you stay isolated in your house, obviously whether you are indoors or outdoors doesn't matter.  But if you are out eating at a restaurant, then it matters if you had dinner in the outdoor tables set up on the sidewalk when the weather was nice, or are forced to eat indoors because the weather has turned south.  Likewise, there's a difference between spending your Saturday playing golf outdoors (very low risk) versus going to a movie theater (moderate risk).



BC