[FarmBoy]

Anyone talking about either of these players are locks to succeed or likely superstars, are ignoring NFL history. Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Alex Smith, Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Matt Leinart, and Joey Harrington were all players that many people thought had star potential and just didn't pan out. Hindsight is 20/20, and everyone now claims they were laughing at the comparisons of Leaf to Manning, but it was a real discussion and debate at the time. The truth is, you just don't know. On top of the fundamental question of whether a player's college career translates to the NFL, you also have the uncertainty of team ownership, coaching, personal injuries, team dynamics, and any number of factors outside the QB's control that will determine who has a great career and who is a bust. Just look at Alex Smith. Had a great college career. People thought he would be great in the NFL, but it took until his sixth year and the right coach, system, and team chemistry for him to start to flourish.

I'm sure everyone has reasons why Luck (and RGIII) can't be compared to any of the above sad tales. But I'm personally skeptical of any college QB until they've started playing against the big boys. I've love Luck for what he's done for Stanford. He was an incredible college QB. I hope his skills translate to the next level, but I hate all of the comparisons made to Elway and Manning before he's played a down in the NFL.

I just hope that 15 years from now, the Luck/Griffin story has evolved into an argument  be similar to Elway vs. Marino, and not a cautionary tale like Manning/Leaf.

[FarmBoy]

Anyone talking about either of these players are locks to succeed or likely superstars, are ignoring NFL history. Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Alex Smith, Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Matt Leinart, and Joey Harrington were all players that many people thought had star potential and just didn't pan out. Hindsight is 20/20, and everyone now claims they were laughing at the comparisons of Leaf to Manning, but it was a real discussion and debate at the time. The truth is, you just don't know. On top of the fundamental question of whether a player's college career translates to the NFL, you also have the uncertainty of team ownership, coaching, personal injuries, team dynamics, and any number of factors outside the QB's control that will determine who has a great career and who is a bust. Just look at Alex Smith. Had a great college career. People thought he would be great in the NFL, but it took until his sixth year and the right coach, system, and team chemistry for him to start to flourish.

I'm sure everyone has reasons why Luck (and RGIII) can't be compared to any of the above sad tales. But I'm personally skeptical of any college QB until they've started playing against the big boys. I've love Luck for what he's done for Stanford. He was an incredible college QB. I hope his skills translate to the next level, but I hate all of the comparisons made to Elway and Manning before he's played a down in the NFL.

I just hope that 15 years from now, the Luck/Griffin story has evolved into an argument  be similar to Elway vs. Marino, and not a cautionary tale like Manning/Leaf.