[Goose]

1.  They really are in a tough position, inasmuch as they are flying blind on what really limits transmission and what doesn't.  They know they need to do something, so they take some wide swings.

At this point there's really no excuse to "flying blind." There has been more than ample time to gather and analyze contact tracing and other data to better understand what is causing COVID spread - and equally more important what is not causing it.

In an ideal world the contact tracing data would have be gathered and analyzed. However, in the USA we have very poor compliance. Many people refuse to cooperate at all or do not give any contacts. That part of the picture is therefore denied us. In addition, much contact reporting lacks data about where the contact happened. The contact tracers are just glad to get names and hopefully some way to find the contact. Data beyond that isn't a priority. On top of that, the amount of analysis being done is pretty limited. Quoting Dr. Scott Morrow from August 6, 2020

Where are the case-control studies (something most localities are not capable of performing, but the State is) that would actually tell us what’s happening in our state and allow us to design and implement appropriate interventions?

I don't expect those studies ever got done. I expect everyone has been told STFU, as I have heard no more about it.

There is undoubtedly academic research going on that will eventually make it into print, but probably too late to do us any good next week. If the data existed in Europe, we could possibly gain some information there, although it may not apply in the USA in general or to California in particular. Unfortunately, I don't think that data source is prolific either. We are getting some data about spread in schools (or lack thereof), but even that is a bit patchy. In short, it is a hard problem that nobody so far has really "solved". Everybody is guessing. If we are lucky, we will beat this virus with a vaccine before we gather enough data to analyze the problem. At the rate we are going, it could take a while.

[Goose]

1.  They really are in a tough position, inasmuch as they are flying blind on what really limits transmission and what doesn't.  They know they need to do something, so they take some wide swings.

At this point there's really no excuse to "flying blind." There has been more than ample time to gather and analyze contact tracing and other data to better understand what is causing COVID spread - and equally more important what is not causing it.

In an ideal world the contact tracing data would have be gathered and analyzed. However, in the USA we have very poor compliance. Many people refuse to cooperate at all or do not give any contacts. That part of the picture is therefore denied us. In addition, much contact reporting lacks data about where the contact happened. The contact tracers are just glad to get names and hopefully some way to find the contact. Data beyond that isn't a priority. On top of that, the amount of analysis being done is pretty limited. Quoting Dr. Scott Morrow from August 6, 2020

Where are the case-control studies (something most localities are not capable of performing, but the State is) that would actually tell us what’s happening in our state and allow us to design and implement appropriate interventions?

I don't expect those studies ever got done. I expect everyone has been told STFU, as I have heard no more about it.

There is undoubtedly academic research going on that will eventually make it into print, but probably too late to do us any good next week. If the data existed in Europe, we could possibly gain some information there, although it may not apply in the USA in general or to California in particular. Unfortunately, I don't think that data source is prolific either. We are getting some data about spread in schools (or lack thereof), but even that is a bit patchy. In short, it is a hard problem that nobody so far has really "solved". Everybody is guessing. If we are lucky, we will beat this virus with a vaccine before we gather enough data to analyze the problem. At the rate we are going, it could take a while.