02-24-2021, 03:56 PM
Here are the Pac-12 standings as of Wednesday:
USC 13-3
UCLA 12-3
Oregon 9-4
Colorado 11-6
Stanford 10-7
(Arizona) 9-8
Oregon State 7-9
Washington State 7-10
Utah 6-9
Arizona State 5-8
Washington 4-14
Cal 3-15
The #5 seed/first-round bye is still the most likely outcome, IMO. If the season ended today that would put us in a second-round game vs Colorado, which is a bad matchup, or Oregon, which may not be much better. A #4 seed still means we play either Colorado or Oregon. And if we win that game we likely face #1 USC. Depending on how the regular season ends, Stanford may need to win both of those games to secure a bid to the NCAA tournament.
There is a narrow path to the #3 seed and a first-round matchup versus #6/#11:
Stanford wins vs. Oregon, vs. Oregon State and @ USC to finish 13-7/.650
Oregon loses @ Stanford and two more of its remaining four @ Cal, vs. Arizona, vs. UCLA or @ OSU to finish 11-7/.611
Colorado loses two of its remaining three vs. USC, vs. UCLA or vs. ASU to finish 12-8/.600
If Stanford does not win out, it cannot finish #3 according to my calculations. On top of that, Colorado has its remaining three games at home, where the Buffs are 8-1 this season. Obviously, Stanford's come-from-ahead loss to WSU really hurts.
I was hoping that the return of Davis, Wills and Williams would result in consistently better results. Hasn't happened yet, but maybe this is the week the team turns the corner...
USC 13-3
UCLA 12-3
Oregon 9-4
Colorado 11-6
Stanford 10-7
(Arizona) 9-8
Oregon State 7-9
Washington State 7-10
Utah 6-9
Arizona State 5-8
Washington 4-14
Cal 3-15
The #5 seed/first-round bye is still the most likely outcome, IMO. If the season ended today that would put us in a second-round game vs Colorado, which is a bad matchup, or Oregon, which may not be much better. A #4 seed still means we play either Colorado or Oregon. And if we win that game we likely face #1 USC. Depending on how the regular season ends, Stanford may need to win both of those games to secure a bid to the NCAA tournament.
There is a narrow path to the #3 seed and a first-round matchup versus #6/#11:
Stanford wins vs. Oregon, vs. Oregon State and @ USC to finish 13-7/.650
Oregon loses @ Stanford and two more of its remaining four @ Cal, vs. Arizona, vs. UCLA or @ OSU to finish 11-7/.611
Colorado loses two of its remaining three vs. USC, vs. UCLA or vs. ASU to finish 12-8/.600
If Stanford does not win out, it cannot finish #3 according to my calculations. On top of that, Colorado has its remaining three games at home, where the Buffs are 8-1 this season. Obviously, Stanford's come-from-ahead loss to WSU really hurts.
I was hoping that the return of Davis, Wills and Williams would result in consistently better results. Hasn't happened yet, but maybe this is the week the team turns the corner...
If there's one thing people have learned in Berkeley, it's that you can't put "Cal football" and "Rose Bowl" in the same sentence. The words just don't fit. You'd be better off linking "covered wagons" with "Mars travel." (Bruce Jenkins, Cal '70, SF Chronicle, Nov. 11, 2017)