[washingtonismoney]

Well, to be fair, there's a pretty decent way to justify 10-11. The average team losing a QB who's a top 5 draft pick loses about 8.5 points per game. That puts our margin of victory at around 13 points per game. Now, you can make the case that we'll be harder hit by erosion than other teams due to the quality departing our offense--but then again I expect the defense to be better, perhaps even considerably better, than in 2011.

Anyway, if you average around 13 points per game margin of victory, you will likely win...10 or 11 games. Basically I think this season is extremely high variance.

[washingtonismoney]

Well, to be fair, there's a pretty decent way to justify 10-11. The average team losing a QB who's a top 5 draft pick loses about 8.5 points per game. That puts our margin of victory at around 13 points per game. Now, you can make the case that we'll be harder hit by erosion than other teams due to the quality departing our offense--but then again I expect the defense to be better, perhaps even considerably better, than in 2011.

Anyway, if you average around 13 points per game margin of victory, you will likely win...10 or 11 games. Basically I think this season is extremely high variance.