[FarmBoy]

Assuming WIM's estimates are accurate, I used Excel to run thousands of simulations of the seasons. Here is our distribution of wins:

OVERALL:
4 0.3%
5 2.0%
6 7.5%
7 16.8%
8 26.5%
9 26.3%
10 15.0%
11 4.8%
12 0.6%

Pac-12
1 0.1%
2 0.5%
3 3.3%
4 10.9%
5 23.4%
6 30.4%
7 21.9%
8 8.4%
9 1.1%

Pac-12 North
0 0.5%
1 5.5%
2 21.0%
3 37.8%
4 28.8%
5 6.5%

So a 20% chance of winning 10 or more games, 53% chance of winning 8-9, 24% 6-7, and 2.4% chance of being bowl-ineligible.

There's only a 31% chance of winning 7+ games in the league. 6-3 or 5-4 is pretty likely.

[FarmBoy]

Assuming WIM's estimates are accurate, I used Excel to run thousands of simulations of the seasons. Here is our distribution of wins:

OVERALL:
4 0.3%
5 2.0%
6 7.5%
7 16.8%
8 26.5%
9 26.3%
10 15.0%
11 4.8%
12 0.6%

Pac-12
1 0.1%
2 0.5%
3 3.3%
4 10.9%
5 23.4%
6 30.4%
7 21.9%
8 8.4%
9 1.1%

Pac-12 North
0 0.5%
1 5.5%
2 21.0%
3 37.8%
4 28.8%
5 6.5%

So a 20% chance of winning 10 or more games, 53% chance of winning 8-9, 24% 6-7, and 2.4% chance of being bowl-ineligible.

There's only a 31% chance of winning 7+ games in the league. 6-3 or 5-4 is pretty likely.