[qwertyuiop]

This game is really simple.
[...]
By every measure of Offense vs. Defense, ASU is superior to Stanford. There is basically no chance Stanford can win, even without counting the fact it is a short week road game.

I don't think the stats are all that comparable.

ASU has played Southern Utah, UNLV, and Colorado, three hideously awful teams.  We have played only one hideously awful team.

ASU has played two good teams and went 1-1.  We've played one common opponent, but anything can happen in one game against a common opponent.

Granted, we are below ASU in every statistically based ranking system, but all systems have ASU's strength of schedule much lower than ours.  If you need stats to feel better about our chances, Sagarin ranks ASU's schedule to date as 98th, while ours is ranked 7th.  

https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/coll...ings-2021/

We may lose this game, possibly badly, but any bold proclamations such as "there is basically no chance" are just about always exaggerated in the Conference of Parity.  There is a chance, and it's far greater than "basically no chance."  Sagarin gives us a 30% chance, and in my opinion, it's even higher.

Longtime lurker, registered to echo this exact point. Statistical rankings, especially at this point in the season, are totally useless, since they don't equate for strength of schedule. You can get the absolute best offense and defense in the country if you play against terrible opponents.

Now, I'm not saying that we'll win. Obviously, the common opponent doesn't look great for us. But trying to use "yards per rush" vs "yards allowed per rush" or some such comparison is totally meaningless if you're not comparing against the same competition. Come late November when most of conference play has happened, I'll feel differently. Until then, don't think that Southern Utah is comparable to KSU.

[qwertyuiop]

This game is really simple.
[...]
By every measure of Offense vs. Defense, ASU is superior to Stanford. There is basically no chance Stanford can win, even without counting the fact it is a short week road game.

I don't think the stats are all that comparable.

ASU has played Southern Utah, UNLV, and Colorado, three hideously awful teams.  We have played only one hideously awful team.

ASU has played two good teams and went 1-1.  We've played one common opponent, but anything can happen in one game against a common opponent.

Granted, we are below ASU in every statistically based ranking system, but all systems have ASU's strength of schedule much lower than ours.  If you need stats to feel better about our chances, Sagarin ranks ASU's schedule to date as 98th, while ours is ranked 7th.  

https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/coll...ings-2021/

We may lose this game, possibly badly, but any bold proclamations such as "there is basically no chance" are just about always exaggerated in the Conference of Parity.  There is a chance, and it's far greater than "basically no chance."  Sagarin gives us a 30% chance, and in my opinion, it's even higher.

Longtime lurker, registered to echo this exact point. Statistical rankings, especially at this point in the season, are totally useless, since they don't equate for strength of schedule. You can get the absolute best offense and defense in the country if you play against terrible opponents.

Now, I'm not saying that we'll win. Obviously, the common opponent doesn't look great for us. But trying to use "yards per rush" vs "yards allowed per rush" or some such comparison is totally meaningless if you're not comparing against the same competition. Come late November when most of conference play has happened, I'll feel differently. Until then, don't think that Southern Utah is comparable to KSU.