[Farm93]

On the one hand, he’s a superior recruiter and an outstanding defensive mind, so if there is a coordinator who you might predíct would do well, I think it would be Lanning.  On the flip side, I wonder if he would bolt for a better job back in the SEC if successful, making him the fourth Oregon coach to leave Oregon for a supposedly better job.

BC

Of course he will bolt.   That's D1 college football in 2021.   He likely believes he can get a 10 win season in the first year or two.   Then he can use that CFP/NY6 appearance to return to the SEC for one of those upper mid-tier SEC jobs and get $9 or $10 million per year.  He has no history in Oregon, but likely believes it will be easier to get that first NY6/CFP game at Oregon than other places.

If anyone asks why Oregon he will say he is impressed with Oregon's resources and history.  He will say he is happy at Oregon right until the day he leaves.  If he has any level of success, he will leave before the 2025 season.

FWIW when Shaw is ultimately replaced as the coach, Stanford will likely have a similar hiring strategy.   If they have any success in year one or two, they too will bolt ASAP for more prestigious roles.

Even with that perspective I think it is better to go the Oregon route than the SC route.  The Oregon route implies they wanted to find a coach capable of building a winner focused on the skills of the players.   The USC route implies they wanted a big name to sell more tickets, pacify alums that remember better times decades ago, and get a bit of media attention in a market that really no longer cares about college football.

[Farm93]

On the one hand, he’s a superior recruiter and an outstanding defensive mind, so if there is a coordinator who you might predíct would do well, I think it would be Lanning.  On the flip side, I wonder if he would bolt for a better job back in the SEC if successful, making him the fourth Oregon coach to leave Oregon for a supposedly better job.

BC

Of course he will bolt.   That's D1 college football in 2021.   He likely believes he can get a 10 win season in the first year or two.   Then he can use that CFP/NY6 appearance to return to the SEC for one of those upper mid-tier SEC jobs and get $9 or $10 million per year.  He has no history in Oregon, but likely believes it will be easier to get that first NY6/CFP game at Oregon than other places.

If anyone asks why Oregon he will say he is impressed with Oregon's resources and history.  He will say he is happy at Oregon right until the day he leaves.  If he has any level of success, he will leave before the 2025 season.

FWIW when Shaw is ultimately replaced as the coach, Stanford will likely have a similar hiring strategy.   If they have any success in year one or two, they too will bolt ASAP for more prestigious roles.

Even with that perspective I think it is better to go the Oregon route than the SC route.  The Oregon route implies they wanted to find a coach capable of building a winner focused on the skills of the players.   The USC route implies they wanted a big name to sell more tickets, pacify alums that remember better times decades ago, and get a bit of media attention in a market that really no longer cares about college football.