[needle]

I'm sure most of you are probably aware that Kentucky (the State of my birth) has produced one of its better teams and are properly celebratory. It's an interesting team - the starting PG, Savir Wheeler, is a transfer from Georgia. One of the two forwards (the team has a three guard, two forward lineup) Oscar Tshiebwe, is a fourth year junior transfer from West Virginia, is one of the more ferocious rebounders college basketball has seen. The team has a dead-eye three point shooter, Kellen Grady, a fifth year senior from Davidson (broke Curry's records). One of the major players off the bench, Davion Mintz, is a graduate transfer from Creighton, who turned down the NBA last year to return to UK. Another, Jacob Toppin, is a transfer from Rhode Island. The only freshman who actually matriculated to Kentucky, Tyty Washington, will be gone at the end of the year to the NBA, as has been typical of Calipari's recruiting for ten years now.

So what's going on here? The transfer portal has been very, very good to Kentucky, and the reason is the NIL rules. The fan base is gigantic, and fanatic. The opportunities for perfectly legal remuneration extend well into five figure stuff, and - with a real collegiate star (Tshiebwe) - may get into  six. For the first time, as a matter of money, it may make more sense for a player to stay in school than go pro, particularly if he is a lower round or G-League type. (Tshiebwe is a classic NBA 'tweener'. ) Kentucky has been buying players for years - who's kidding who - but now it's legal. 

There is no way an average school (Stanford) can compete with this. And this is tame compared to the advantage the football crazy schools of the SEC have. Basketball is not capital intensive, and one or two outliers who choose Stanford for their own reasons make a of immense proportions difference. Football?  Not even close. We are going to see a monotonous procession of SEC schools to the Final Four, with occasional ACC outliers. Even traditional powerhouses like Notre Dame need not apply, and get creamed on the occasions when they luck into the finals.

How do you cope with this? I've advocated for years junking the amateur rule altogether and simply letting promising athletes take money from whatever source is available. You restrict NCAA enforcement to academic eligibility and related issues. This permits NFL, NBA, and MLB franchises to draft in place, so to speak, contracting for the rights to the future services of an athlete, while permitting him (sic - these considerations don't affect women athletes at present) to matriculate to the school of his choice. Most colleges do a fine job of developing athletes, as well as contributing to their maturation. The option money is a fraction compared to salaries for full time players, but extremely important to the athlete. 

Pro money dwarfs NIL.  We can return to a level playing field.

I've run into all spurious objections to simply tossing the rule, too many to list here. A few years ago, I wrote a fictional dialog between an NBA GM and a Stanford recruit who was also a potential first round draft choice. I wanted to illustrate the common sense, give-and-take, dialog  that might take place.

Here it is. I hope you find it food for thought.

I still believe that the first great NIL scandal will involve gambling, with a non-star player getting paid for delivering inside info. I don't know to what degree my concerns are unfounded, or if the idea of allowing players to take earning from all sources would exacerbate any similar concerns that may exist.

[needle]

I'm sure most of you are probably aware that Kentucky (the State of my birth) has produced one of its better teams and are properly celebratory. It's an interesting team - the starting PG, Savir Wheeler, is a transfer from Georgia. One of the two forwards (the team has a three guard, two forward lineup) Oscar Tshiebwe, is a fourth year junior transfer from West Virginia, is one of the more ferocious rebounders college basketball has seen. The team has a dead-eye three point shooter, Kellen Grady, a fifth year senior from Davidson (broke Curry's records). One of the major players off the bench, Davion Mintz, is a graduate transfer from Creighton, who turned down the NBA last year to return to UK. Another, Jacob Toppin, is a transfer from Rhode Island. The only freshman who actually matriculated to Kentucky, Tyty Washington, will be gone at the end of the year to the NBA, as has been typical of Calipari's recruiting for ten years now.

So what's going on here? The transfer portal has been very, very good to Kentucky, and the reason is the NIL rules. The fan base is gigantic, and fanatic. The opportunities for perfectly legal remuneration extend well into five figure stuff, and - with a real collegiate star (Tshiebwe) - may get into  six. For the first time, as a matter of money, it may make more sense for a player to stay in school than go pro, particularly if he is a lower round or G-League type. (Tshiebwe is a classic NBA 'tweener'. ) Kentucky has been buying players for years - who's kidding who - but now it's legal. 

There is no way an average school (Stanford) can compete with this. And this is tame compared to the advantage the football crazy schools of the SEC have. Basketball is not capital intensive, and one or two outliers who choose Stanford for their own reasons make a of immense proportions difference. Football?  Not even close. We are going to see a monotonous procession of SEC schools to the Final Four, with occasional ACC outliers. Even traditional powerhouses like Notre Dame need not apply, and get creamed on the occasions when they luck into the finals.

How do you cope with this? I've advocated for years junking the amateur rule altogether and simply letting promising athletes take money from whatever source is available. You restrict NCAA enforcement to academic eligibility and related issues. This permits NFL, NBA, and MLB franchises to draft in place, so to speak, contracting for the rights to the future services of an athlete, while permitting him (sic - these considerations don't affect women athletes at present) to matriculate to the school of his choice. Most colleges do a fine job of developing athletes, as well as contributing to their maturation. The option money is a fraction compared to salaries for full time players, but extremely important to the athlete. 

Pro money dwarfs NIL.  We can return to a level playing field.

I've run into all spurious objections to simply tossing the rule, too many to list here. A few years ago, I wrote a fictional dialog between an NBA GM and a Stanford recruit who was also a potential first round draft choice. I wanted to illustrate the common sense, give-and-take, dialog  that might take place.

Here it is. I hope you find it food for thought.

I still believe that the first great NIL scandal will involve gambling, with a non-star player getting paid for delivering inside info. I don't know to what degree my concerns are unfounded, or if the idea of allowing players to take earning from all sources would exacerbate any similar concerns that may exist.