10-23-2022, 10:03 AM
7. I talked earlier about what won the game but in a one point home win against a bad team what was bad enough to lose the game is just as salient. The defense, because of the edge defenders, was good enough to keep the Sun Devils to almost a point per drive below their average (despite giving up worse than average yards per play, a sign of that bend but don't break) but got victimized by big plays disturbingly often. We gave up four 30+ yard plays and were inches from giving up another to lose the game. In the previous six games Arizona State only had gotten seven 30+ plays, so we did a terrible job stopping chunk plays against a team practically incapable of them. Ultimately I think we got saved as much by facing a bad team that couldn't capitalize on facing one of the softest defenses on its schedule.
8. But the bigger thing that almost lost the game was of course our putrid offense. We were the first FBS offense to get less than five yarss a play against Arizona State and we scored a whopping 2.32 points fewer per drive (even with Karty as a weapon!!!!!) than the Sun Devils give up on average. In other words, Shawfense made the #128 points per drive defense look like the #8 points per drive defense in the nation (again, even with the benefit of Karty). Not an exaggeration. That's how bad scoring 15 points on Arizona State is. We are the first FBS school to score less than 30 points on them and we only scored half that!
9. Such awful offense took a village of crap. It was an odd game plan to be so imbalanced in favor of the pass from the start against a very bad run defense. Arizona State is #89 in yards per carry allowed and Stanford has run blocked better than pass blocked this season, yet we never even tried to establish the run. I suspect two factors. First, this was a reaction to Filkins' high work rate last week and we were trying to preserve him (making it ironic that this is the game we lose him to injury, making self-fulfilling that the offense is imbalanced going forward). Second, this may be a tell we're essentially abandoning the conceit that we have balance in our offense. This is now the fourth time in six FBS games we haven't even broken 100 yards rushing. In fact, we're the first FBS team to fail to break four yards a carry against Arizona State's pitiful run defense and we barely brokee three yards a carry. Filkins has his defenders and Smith his critics, but it's notable that our only games with either 150+ rushing yards or 4+ yards per carry were the two Smith played. Even before Filkins got injured it's been clear we can't run. Without him, it's hopeless and we become an air raid team.
10. But here's where the village of crap came in. Coming into the season some wanted Stanford to just air it out this year given our personnel strengths. But are they strengths? The receivers dropped a million passes and honestly Higgins, Tremayne, and Yurosek have been mediocre all year. [Yurosek, Higgins, and Humphreys did have nice days yesterday. This week's moving the chains (first downs) leader board: Humphreys (6), Yurosek (5), Higgins (5), Tremayne (4), Filkins (4)] The pass proection/McKee's pocket presence was a calamity: Arizona State game into the game with four sacks on the season in six games, easily the worst in the nation, and we let them double their season total in one afternoon. And McKee struggled in this game, which was a great example of what a misleading stat yards can be. This was clearly our worst passing game of the season - the worst passer rating, completion percentage, and touchdowns, and second worst yards per attempt, and we got stifled by a bad team: it was the worst any FBS passing team has done against them (we did worse than Eastern Michigan!). I see fans have more and more started to have a conversation about McKee and, sadly, I think that's fair. On the season he is #76 in Total QBR (#7 in the Pac-12) and #73 in traditional passer rating (#8). On the four major components of Total QBR (pass, run, sacks, penalties), avoiding penalties is the only thing he's top 50 in and he is woeful in two of the four, #118 of 124 in running and #94 in sacks. None of this is to say McKee won't be drafted. I still suspect he'll declare for the draft and be a Jacob Eason-type prospect. But he is potentially playing himself into another year and, in any case, joins everything else but Drake Nugent as one of the problems in our offense.
11. Game balls: Humphreys, Cooper, Karty, Anderson
12. Based on all evidence to date this season I expect UCLA to expose us again for the team it's clear we are. The Oregon State, Notre Dame, and Arizona State games have been moderate upticks in our quality of play but the main reason we are now winning games rather than losing uncompetitively is that we're playing more mediocre teams. Beating UCLA would take something we haven't shown ourselves capable of in quite a while, or UCLA laying an egg (which could happen, though their own uncompetitive loss yesterday and Rose Bowl hopes makes a focused Bruin team likely). Nonetheless, the coaches and players have resiliently bounced back such that they deserve to shoot for a redeemeed season. In my opinion, it will take a bowl and the Oregon State loss continues to make than an uphill climb, but we have a chance. As such, I think the remaining weeks of the season will continue to be that battle between heart and head for Stanford fans.
8. But the bigger thing that almost lost the game was of course our putrid offense. We were the first FBS offense to get less than five yarss a play against Arizona State and we scored a whopping 2.32 points fewer per drive (even with Karty as a weapon!!!!!) than the Sun Devils give up on average. In other words, Shawfense made the #128 points per drive defense look like the #8 points per drive defense in the nation (again, even with the benefit of Karty). Not an exaggeration. That's how bad scoring 15 points on Arizona State is. We are the first FBS school to score less than 30 points on them and we only scored half that!
9. Such awful offense took a village of crap. It was an odd game plan to be so imbalanced in favor of the pass from the start against a very bad run defense. Arizona State is #89 in yards per carry allowed and Stanford has run blocked better than pass blocked this season, yet we never even tried to establish the run. I suspect two factors. First, this was a reaction to Filkins' high work rate last week and we were trying to preserve him (making it ironic that this is the game we lose him to injury, making self-fulfilling that the offense is imbalanced going forward). Second, this may be a tell we're essentially abandoning the conceit that we have balance in our offense. This is now the fourth time in six FBS games we haven't even broken 100 yards rushing. In fact, we're the first FBS team to fail to break four yards a carry against Arizona State's pitiful run defense and we barely brokee three yards a carry. Filkins has his defenders and Smith his critics, but it's notable that our only games with either 150+ rushing yards or 4+ yards per carry were the two Smith played. Even before Filkins got injured it's been clear we can't run. Without him, it's hopeless and we become an air raid team.
10. But here's where the village of crap came in. Coming into the season some wanted Stanford to just air it out this year given our personnel strengths. But are they strengths? The receivers dropped a million passes and honestly Higgins, Tremayne, and Yurosek have been mediocre all year. [Yurosek, Higgins, and Humphreys did have nice days yesterday. This week's moving the chains (first downs) leader board: Humphreys (6), Yurosek (5), Higgins (5), Tremayne (4), Filkins (4)] The pass proection/McKee's pocket presence was a calamity: Arizona State game into the game with four sacks on the season in six games, easily the worst in the nation, and we let them double their season total in one afternoon. And McKee struggled in this game, which was a great example of what a misleading stat yards can be. This was clearly our worst passing game of the season - the worst passer rating, completion percentage, and touchdowns, and second worst yards per attempt, and we got stifled by a bad team: it was the worst any FBS passing team has done against them (we did worse than Eastern Michigan!). I see fans have more and more started to have a conversation about McKee and, sadly, I think that's fair. On the season he is #76 in Total QBR (#7 in the Pac-12) and #73 in traditional passer rating (#8). On the four major components of Total QBR (pass, run, sacks, penalties), avoiding penalties is the only thing he's top 50 in and he is woeful in two of the four, #118 of 124 in running and #94 in sacks. None of this is to say McKee won't be drafted. I still suspect he'll declare for the draft and be a Jacob Eason-type prospect. But he is potentially playing himself into another year and, in any case, joins everything else but Drake Nugent as one of the problems in our offense.
11. Game balls: Humphreys, Cooper, Karty, Anderson
12. Based on all evidence to date this season I expect UCLA to expose us again for the team it's clear we are. The Oregon State, Notre Dame, and Arizona State games have been moderate upticks in our quality of play but the main reason we are now winning games rather than losing uncompetitively is that we're playing more mediocre teams. Beating UCLA would take something we haven't shown ourselves capable of in quite a while, or UCLA laying an egg (which could happen, though their own uncompetitive loss yesterday and Rose Bowl hopes makes a focused Bruin team likely). Nonetheless, the coaches and players have resiliently bounced back such that they deserve to shoot for a redeemeed season. In my opinion, it will take a bowl and the Oregon State loss continues to make than an uphill climb, but we have a chance. As such, I think the remaining weeks of the season will continue to be that battle between heart and head for Stanford fans.