10-31-2022, 10:21 AM
A fact that I've been highlighting in my summaries is that we haven't had a single FBS game that surpassed the national average for points per game since October 16, 2021. Not one single game that was even above average. Many fans have an image in their head that 30 points is the threshold for good offense. That is an antiquated notion. 30 points is exactly average in modern college football (this year the median is 29.4). If you're good you're scoring 38+ points per game. Stanford's offense is actually worse than many fans assume.
To me the way to meaningfully visualize this in an apples-to-apples way is to look at what percentile we rank in FBS. That way you're accounting for evolution in the game. Here is the major college football scoring offense percentile for every Stanford offense since 1960 (I realize I'm doing percentiles backwards here but doing it this way saved me A LOT of math and this is just a quick exercise):
1. 2011 (5.8)
2. 1969 (7.4)
3. 2010 (7.5)
4. 1999 (7.9)
5. 1980 (8.0)
6. 1975 (8.8)
7. 2009 (10.0)
8. 2001 (10.3)
9. 1982 (11.5)
10. 1981 (11.7)
11. 2015 (14.1)
12. 1978 (14.5)
13. 1970 (16.3)
14. 1991 (17.8)
15. 1968 (21.8)
16. 1994 (25.2)
17. 1972 (26.8)
18. 1979 (28.6)
19. 2017 (29.2)
20. 1995 (29.6)
21. 1977 (30.3)
22. 1993 (34.9)
23. 1976 (35.8)
24. 2013 (36.0)
25. 1971 (36.7)
26. 1992 (39.3)
27. 1987 (43.3)
28. 1973 (43.4)
29. 2020 (43.8)
30. 2008 (45.4)
31. 1990 (47.7)
32. 1964 (48.3)
33. 1985 (49.1)
34. 1986 (49.5)
35. 1963 (50.0)
35. 1984 (50.0)
37. 1997 (53.6)
38. 1998 (55.4)
39. 1988 (56.2)
39. 2018 (56.2)
41. 2012 (58.1)
42. 2005 (60.0)
43. 2000 (61.2)
44. 1965 (61.7)
45. 2014 (62.5)
46. 1966 (63.9)
47. 1974 (64.3)
48. 2016 (65.6)
49. 1967 (68.6)
50. 1996 (71.2)
51. 1962 (71.7)
52. 2004 (75.0)
53. 2022 (75.6)
54. 1960 (79.6)
55. 1961 (81.1)
56. 2002 (82.9)
57. 2019 (83.8)
58. 1989 (84.9)
59. 2021 (86.9)
60. 2007 (89.1)
61. 1983 (92.0)
62. 2003 (92.3)
63. 2006 (99.2)
Observations:
* Historically, the 1964 offense is our median scoring offense. To baseline the discussion, that means that middle of the road is scoring more than 51.7 percent of offenses nationally. In 2022, that would be scoring 30.1 points per game.
* Unsurprisingly, the all-time Stanford median is right around that 50 percent mid-point. The 50 percent mid-point in 2022 is 29.8/29.4 points per game.
* In terms of the sea level of Shawfense, across the last seven Stanford offenses we have five below the median, one right around the median, and a grand total of one good scoring offense in seven years.
* I'm the one who always talks about context and comparing apples-to-apples but even I was shocked to not see the 2015 Stanford offense crack the top ten. That's a testament to the evolution in college football. 37.8 points per game just doesn't mean what it used to.
* in terms of the immediate recent past, last year's Stanford offense and this year's Stanford offense are both in our historical bottom 16 percent. The 2021 offense was reminiscent of the Steve Smith/Brian Johnson 1989 offense and the TC Ostrander/Tavita Pritchard 2007 offense. The current offense is reminiscent of the 2004 offense that got Buddy Teevens fired and the Jack Curtice 1960 offense that went 0-10.
DSMG. QED.
To me the way to meaningfully visualize this in an apples-to-apples way is to look at what percentile we rank in FBS. That way you're accounting for evolution in the game. Here is the major college football scoring offense percentile for every Stanford offense since 1960 (I realize I'm doing percentiles backwards here but doing it this way saved me A LOT of math and this is just a quick exercise):
1. 2011 (5.8)
2. 1969 (7.4)
3. 2010 (7.5)
4. 1999 (7.9)
5. 1980 (8.0)
6. 1975 (8.8)
7. 2009 (10.0)
8. 2001 (10.3)
9. 1982 (11.5)
10. 1981 (11.7)
11. 2015 (14.1)
12. 1978 (14.5)
13. 1970 (16.3)
14. 1991 (17.8)
15. 1968 (21.8)
16. 1994 (25.2)
17. 1972 (26.8)
18. 1979 (28.6)
19. 2017 (29.2)
20. 1995 (29.6)
21. 1977 (30.3)
22. 1993 (34.9)
23. 1976 (35.8)
24. 2013 (36.0)
25. 1971 (36.7)
26. 1992 (39.3)
27. 1987 (43.3)
28. 1973 (43.4)
29. 2020 (43.8)
30. 2008 (45.4)
31. 1990 (47.7)
32. 1964 (48.3)
33. 1985 (49.1)
34. 1986 (49.5)
35. 1963 (50.0)
35. 1984 (50.0)
37. 1997 (53.6)
38. 1998 (55.4)
39. 1988 (56.2)
39. 2018 (56.2)
41. 2012 (58.1)
42. 2005 (60.0)
43. 2000 (61.2)
44. 1965 (61.7)
45. 2014 (62.5)
46. 1966 (63.9)
47. 1974 (64.3)
48. 2016 (65.6)
49. 1967 (68.6)
50. 1996 (71.2)
51. 1962 (71.7)
52. 2004 (75.0)
53. 2022 (75.6)
54. 1960 (79.6)
55. 1961 (81.1)
56. 2002 (82.9)
57. 2019 (83.8)
58. 1989 (84.9)
59. 2021 (86.9)
60. 2007 (89.1)
61. 1983 (92.0)
62. 2003 (92.3)
63. 2006 (99.2)
Observations:
* Historically, the 1964 offense is our median scoring offense. To baseline the discussion, that means that middle of the road is scoring more than 51.7 percent of offenses nationally. In 2022, that would be scoring 30.1 points per game.
* Unsurprisingly, the all-time Stanford median is right around that 50 percent mid-point. The 50 percent mid-point in 2022 is 29.8/29.4 points per game.
* In terms of the sea level of Shawfense, across the last seven Stanford offenses we have five below the median, one right around the median, and a grand total of one good scoring offense in seven years.
* I'm the one who always talks about context and comparing apples-to-apples but even I was shocked to not see the 2015 Stanford offense crack the top ten. That's a testament to the evolution in college football. 37.8 points per game just doesn't mean what it used to.
* in terms of the immediate recent past, last year's Stanford offense and this year's Stanford offense are both in our historical bottom 16 percent. The 2021 offense was reminiscent of the Steve Smith/Brian Johnson 1989 offense and the TC Ostrander/Tavita Pritchard 2007 offense. The current offense is reminiscent of the 2004 offense that got Buddy Teevens fired and the Jack Curtice 1960 offense that went 0-10.
DSMG. QED.