[Austroturf]

That ESPN predictor number is more bullish on us than the spread. That spread translates to an essentially zero percent chance of winning. The Sagarin differential (about 20 points when you account for home field advantage) is about a zero to one percent chance.

Yes, I think the predictor doesn't include new and recent information.  The line always does.  Unless Utah shows up late for the game, our chances are effectively nil.

[Austroturf]

That ESPN predictor number is more bullish on us than the spread. That spread translates to an essentially zero percent chance of winning. The Sagarin differential (about 20 points when you account for home field advantage) is about a zero to one percent chance.

Yes, I think the predictor doesn't include new and recent information.  The line always does.  Unless Utah shows up late for the game, our chances are effectively nil.