[Roberton3]

The good news is the crowd above Stanford includes a lot of teams from one conference, and a school that is ineligible for bowl games.

Stanford still has a clear, though unlikely, path to the Pac-12 championship.  And in the likely event of a loss to Oregon, a clear path to the #2 Pac-12 slot and a possible BCS at-large invite.

It is stunningly clear that the Pac-12 North is better than the Pac-12 South.  It is possible/probable that the Pac-12 South winner will not be in the BCS 14 before the Pac-12 CG.  Hard to see that team winning that game, so the Pac-12 South is unlikely to have a team in the BCS 14 after the conference title games.  Therefore, Oregon State vs. Stanford is probably going to determine the second highest ranked Pac-12 team.  And that Pac-12 North team will likely slide into the BCS 14 if their only loss going forward is to Oregon.

The SEC clogs up the BCS 14 with teams that will not be able to get BCS invites.  Ohio State clogs up a slot too.  And the ultra desirable BigTen seems unlikely to have two teams in the BCS 14.  The ACC's two best both must play better SEC teams at the end of the year and play in a very weak conference.  It is not out of the question that the ACC only has one BCS 14 team in the end.

It really is possible that the winner of the Oregon State vs. Stanford game finishes 12th, 13th, or 14th in the final BCS standings and because of the crowd of SEC teams in the top 14 that Pac-12 team might be in a place where it must get an invite.

Northern Indiana Parochial College's almost lost to Stanford.  That sounds better for Stanford as the year progresses.  If Stanford can get at least a similar claim with Oregon and a 9-3 record that really might be enough.

You're wrong about one thing: because they're ineligible, Ohio State doesn't show up in the BCS rankings at all, so they don't take up a BCS 14 slot.  Otherwise, though, your analysis seems correct to me.

[Roberton3]

The good news is the crowd above Stanford includes a lot of teams from one conference, and a school that is ineligible for bowl games.

Stanford still has a clear, though unlikely, path to the Pac-12 championship.  And in the likely event of a loss to Oregon, a clear path to the #2 Pac-12 slot and a possible BCS at-large invite.

It is stunningly clear that the Pac-12 North is better than the Pac-12 South.  It is possible/probable that the Pac-12 South winner will not be in the BCS 14 before the Pac-12 CG.  Hard to see that team winning that game, so the Pac-12 South is unlikely to have a team in the BCS 14 after the conference title games.  Therefore, Oregon State vs. Stanford is probably going to determine the second highest ranked Pac-12 team.  And that Pac-12 North team will likely slide into the BCS 14 if their only loss going forward is to Oregon.

The SEC clogs up the BCS 14 with teams that will not be able to get BCS invites.  Ohio State clogs up a slot too.  And the ultra desirable BigTen seems unlikely to have two teams in the BCS 14.  The ACC's two best both must play better SEC teams at the end of the year and play in a very weak conference.  It is not out of the question that the ACC only has one BCS 14 team in the end.

It really is possible that the winner of the Oregon State vs. Stanford game finishes 12th, 13th, or 14th in the final BCS standings and because of the crowd of SEC teams in the top 14 that Pac-12 team might be in a place where it must get an invite.

Northern Indiana Parochial College's almost lost to Stanford.  That sounds better for Stanford as the year progresses.  If Stanford can get at least a similar claim with Oregon and a 9-3 record that really might be enough.

You're wrong about one thing: because they're ineligible, Ohio State doesn't show up in the BCS rankings at all, so they don't take up a BCS 14 slot.  Otherwise, though, your analysis seems correct to me.