[Roberton3]

We'll beat Colorado.

While I would love to be wrong, my view is that the Ducks will handle us with ease.  Our offense is not productive enough to keep theirs off of the field.  The Duck defense is also very stout.  Our defense is exceptional, but won't be able to keep up because our offense clearly can't hold up its end of the deal.

I don't like our matchups at all versus OSU.  They have two outstanding corners to cover our receivers, are strong against the run, and will be able to load the box.  They have the personnel to do what the Huskies did to us, except do it much better.  We can win this game, but it will be tough to do so.  I think the Beavs have the upper hand in this one.

I see UCLA's spread offense as a real problem for us (think Arizona or a Cougar team that could run in addition to pass).  Again, I have no confidence that our O can hold up its end of the deal on the road.  Again, a winnable game, but based on what I have seen on the road, we will be fortunate to beat the Bruins.

So, like I said, we'll be fortunate to win 2 of 4.

You're overestimating both Oregon State and UCLA.  Stanford will probably be a slight favorite in each of those games.  But more importantly, even if you're right about the odds for each game, Stanford will probably still win one of the two.  For the sake of argument, suppose OSU and UCLA each have a 70% chance of beating Stanford (which is a substantial overestimate in each case) -- then Stanford would still have slightly over a 50% chance of winning at least one of those games (assuming that they're independent events, which is approximately true). 

[Roberton3]

We'll beat Colorado.

While I would love to be wrong, my view is that the Ducks will handle us with ease.  Our offense is not productive enough to keep theirs off of the field.  The Duck defense is also very stout.  Our defense is exceptional, but won't be able to keep up because our offense clearly can't hold up its end of the deal.

I don't like our matchups at all versus OSU.  They have two outstanding corners to cover our receivers, are strong against the run, and will be able to load the box.  They have the personnel to do what the Huskies did to us, except do it much better.  We can win this game, but it will be tough to do so.  I think the Beavs have the upper hand in this one.

I see UCLA's spread offense as a real problem for us (think Arizona or a Cougar team that could run in addition to pass).  Again, I have no confidence that our O can hold up its end of the deal on the road.  Again, a winnable game, but based on what I have seen on the road, we will be fortunate to beat the Bruins.

So, like I said, we'll be fortunate to win 2 of 4.

You're overestimating both Oregon State and UCLA.  Stanford will probably be a slight favorite in each of those games.  But more importantly, even if you're right about the odds for each game, Stanford will probably still win one of the two.  For the sake of argument, suppose OSU and UCLA each have a 70% chance of beating Stanford (which is a substantial overestimate in each case) -- then Stanford would still have slightly over a 50% chance of winning at least one of those games (assuming that they're independent events, which is approximately true).