10-30-2023, 02:08 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2023, 02:21 PM by OCcardinal.)
(10-29-2023, 06:50 PM)81alum Wrote: Is there anyone prepared to comment on the 1-1 draw against UCLA? Inquiring minds want to know.... Apparently this means UCLA wins the final Pac 12 title. We are 4-0-3 against ranked opponents. That strikes me as good...but not exactly excellent.I'm not as pessimistic about the outcome as others. A few thoughts:
1) UCLA has been on fire. They had outscored opponents 23-1 in their past 7 conference games. And Stanford's defense held up quite well given the lack of experience playing together in that formation. Stanford is only the 3rd team to have held UCLA to 1 goal this season (UCLA hasn't been shut out). UCLA also had their 3rd fewest shots and shots on goal for the season and their leading scorer Reilyn Turner was held without a shot on goal. We clinched 2nd in the conference, which is where we thought we'd be.
2) Stanford's defense has been historically great this season. The season's not over, but they haven't allowed more than 1 goal in any game. You'd have to go back to Ali Riley's 2008 team to find a Stanford defense that had not allowed more than 1 goal in any game over the whole season.
3) Ryan Campbell was great in goal again and gives me a lot of confidence heading into the tournament. I'd say she won the battles against her former So Cal Blues teammates (Simone Jackson of USC and UCLA's Reilyn Turner) as neither scored on her (Campbell saved 3 of Jackson's shots on goal).
4) It's interesting that with Aikey on the back line we generated more of an offense than we did vs USC (where we failed to generate even a single shot on goal). There are some things that worked about yesterday's formation. A 1-1 tie seemed fair. Both teams seemed to have a similar number of genuine goalscoring opportunities.
5) I'm a little worried that we haven't seen Samantha Williams since the Oregon game (when she was subbed out due to some sort of injury). She's not a top goal scorer but gives us speed that no one else on the squad can replicate (except maybe Evans, but she's a defender). Hopefully she'll be back at 100% for the tournament. Allie Montoya is back but doesn't seem in top form yet.
6) The formation was indeed weird, but I don't think Ratcliffe was experimenting for future games. It just seemed like he was trying to match our top athletes up against UCLA's best. And with a 1-1 tie on the road vs the #2 team in the country I'd say it worked.
7) 4-0-3 vs ranked opponents is more than good this season. I think the UCLA tie should improve our standing with the committee. I assume we are at least #2 seed no matter what happens vs Cal this week. Massey has us as #3 in the country. See Massey D1 WSoc Rankings. And the NCAA guy still has us as #2 in his power 5: Power 5 Rankings We are kind of like the USWNT in the World Cup. We have the defense to go all the way but will need a little luck to beat the best teams.
8) North Carolina lost to Pitt in the ACC tournament so they are probably a 3 seed. Knowing our bad luck with seeding recently they'll surely end up in our bracket.
9) There are 5 teams I don't want to have to play before the College Cup:
-UCLA (championship contender)
-North Carolina (though they only have 10 wins, they had the 2nd hardest schedule in the country and did not lose any game in 90 minutes; they also have a Hall of Fame coach and are always dangerous in the tournament)
-USC (have only allowed 3 goals in their last 11 games)
-BYU (beat UCLA; had some letdowns this season but still a very dangerous team; nevertheless they have a stronger offense than defense so not the worst match up for us)
-Florida State (the best team I've seen play this season)
