[Maple Leaf]

Preview:

We take on USC for the Pac 12 Tournament Championship Sunday, 2pm.   The game is televised on ESPN.

USC survived double overtime against UCLA on Friday, and phenom Juju Watkins tweeked an ankle, to advance.  We survived a dismal first half and came from 16 points behind to defeat Oregon State to advance.

Ranking:  AP Stanford 2, USC 5.  Coaches Stanford 2, USC 8.
NET:  Stanford 2 USC 13
Massey: Stanford 2 USC 12
Records: Stanford 28-4  USC 25-5

Our last preview and thread on the (only) USC game we played this year can be found here:

https://thecardboard.org/board/showthrea...#pid407835

To review, we lost at Maples 58-67 in a game that was winnable despite Juju Watkins hitting 51 points.  So much attention was focused on her phenomenal night that our own anemic offense against the USC defense was overlooked.  Tara said as much in the presser, words to the effect that "we could have survived Juju's night if we had run our own offense efficiently."

This is important to remember, because Watkins might (or might not) be hobbled.  She tweaked an ankle in the UCLA win, went out, came back in, and helped them to win, but was noticeably limping after the game.  But if Watkins does not score 51 this will create opportunities for other talented USC players to score, so a USC without Watkins at 100% is not necessarily going to lose a dramatic amount of offense--some yes, but it is not like you can subtract 51 from their final score.

But if we score only 58 points against their defense, we will lose, no matter what Watkins does or does not do.  So getting our offense on track against yet another overly physical, athletic, and talented defense is critical.  Here are a few Tara quotes about that first game:

"It is early enough in the season that our team can learn and listen and improve.  We cannot expect to beat a really good team taking the shots that we took, turning the ball over the way we turned it over, not getting O-boards, and not keeping THEM off the glass....We did not give ourselves a chance....It's disappointing.  We are better than that....I think you will see a much more competitive game on Sunday."

"Once you start taking bad shots then even your good ones don't go in."

"We could have survived her 51 points if we are running offense and we are not turning the ball over and we are getting on the O-boards and we are playing the way we are capable of."

So, our priority has to be to defend Watkins as well as possible but to get our own offense into high gear to outscore Watkins and company.  That is easier said than done.  USC is the team I least wanted to play in the finals--and we could face them again in the NCAAs if both teams keep winning.  But somehow it is fitting and just that we do face them.  A victory will be redemptive, if it comes.

Watkins is such a versatile player that she defies scouting report defense.  For example, when we played USC at Maples the vast majority of her 51 points were jump shots--often with a hand in her face.  Yes, she got open some of the time, but she was draining perfect net-only jumpers even when well defended.  She is tall enough that none of our guards bother her on jumpshots, but athletic enough to drive around any player her own size or taller.  Against us, she really did not need to drive.

But last night, the vast majority of her shots were on drives to the basket and free throws.  Just like Kelsey Plum, Juju drives and leaps into defenders while shooting acrobatic shots that almost always go in, or that generating fouls and free throws.  Some of the best body control in the game.  Last night, 14 of her 33 points game on free throws.  Against us last time, 17 of her points came on free throws.  So she does not only score, she knocks opposing players out of games.

I have no idea what we can do to defend her.  Agara is the right height to defender her, but cannot keep up with her lateral speed.  Lepolo has the lateral speed but gives up 7 inches.  Not quite as much as Londyn Jones gave up trying to defend her at times last night.  Charisma Osborne did a very creditable job last night but gives up 5 inches, and even her excellent defense did not stop 33 points.  I think we will be lucky to keep Watkins in the 30s, unless her injury prevents her from playing.

Something we can control more is our own offense, and what we do against the USC defense.  We were pretty cold against USC last time out.  We did not take that many three point shots and missed those we did.  And Brink and Iriafen were not efficient inside, going 10/32 collectively.  USC tied us in rebounding and had more O-boards than we did.  Rayah Marshall fouled out but not before she messed up our inside game sufficiently.  Watkins was the offense (Forbes had 12, no one else on USC more than 2) and that left 4 players free to concentrate on defense.  And we wound up shootings a miserable 32% on offense.  We will need more than the 3 offensive threats of Brink, Iriafen, and Jump.  We will need some genuine production out of Lepolo, Bosgana, and the bench if we expect to win.  We may need to score close to 80 points, and the USC defense is not a sieve.

All in all, a great opportunity for us to redeem ourselves.  But a very tough task ahead.

Oregon State did a very good job in defending Watkins and that was without Beers playing.  It seemed that OSU did a good job of getting a hand up in her face when she started to shoot.  OSU has two guards that are 6'-1" each who played 23 and 31 minutes and one that is 6'-2" who played 17 minutes.  Don't know how much time they spent guarding Watkins.  The OSU coach is know for his ability to develop a defensive game plan to slow down the other team's best shooters.

[Maple Leaf]

Preview:

We take on USC for the Pac 12 Tournament Championship Sunday, 2pm.   The game is televised on ESPN.

USC survived double overtime against UCLA on Friday, and phenom Juju Watkins tweeked an ankle, to advance.  We survived a dismal first half and came from 16 points behind to defeat Oregon State to advance.

Ranking:  AP Stanford 2, USC 5.  Coaches Stanford 2, USC 8.
NET:  Stanford 2 USC 13
Massey: Stanford 2 USC 12
Records: Stanford 28-4  USC 25-5

Our last preview and thread on the (only) USC game we played this year can be found here:

https://thecardboard.org/board/showthrea...#pid407835

To review, we lost at Maples 58-67 in a game that was winnable despite Juju Watkins hitting 51 points.  So much attention was focused on her phenomenal night that our own anemic offense against the USC defense was overlooked.  Tara said as much in the presser, words to the effect that "we could have survived Juju's night if we had run our own offense efficiently."

This is important to remember, because Watkins might (or might not) be hobbled.  She tweaked an ankle in the UCLA win, went out, came back in, and helped them to win, but was noticeably limping after the game.  But if Watkins does not score 51 this will create opportunities for other talented USC players to score, so a USC without Watkins at 100% is not necessarily going to lose a dramatic amount of offense--some yes, but it is not like you can subtract 51 from their final score.

But if we score only 58 points against their defense, we will lose, no matter what Watkins does or does not do.  So getting our offense on track against yet another overly physical, athletic, and talented defense is critical.  Here are a few Tara quotes about that first game:

"It is early enough in the season that our team can learn and listen and improve.  We cannot expect to beat a really good team taking the shots that we took, turning the ball over the way we turned it over, not getting O-boards, and not keeping THEM off the glass....We did not give ourselves a chance....It's disappointing.  We are better than that....I think you will see a much more competitive game on Sunday."

"Once you start taking bad shots then even your good ones don't go in."

"We could have survived her 51 points if we are running offense and we are not turning the ball over and we are getting on the O-boards and we are playing the way we are capable of."

So, our priority has to be to defend Watkins as well as possible but to get our own offense into high gear to outscore Watkins and company.  That is easier said than done.  USC is the team I least wanted to play in the finals--and we could face them again in the NCAAs if both teams keep winning.  But somehow it is fitting and just that we do face them.  A victory will be redemptive, if it comes.

Watkins is such a versatile player that she defies scouting report defense.  For example, when we played USC at Maples the vast majority of her 51 points were jump shots--often with a hand in her face.  Yes, she got open some of the time, but she was draining perfect net-only jumpers even when well defended.  She is tall enough that none of our guards bother her on jumpshots, but athletic enough to drive around any player her own size or taller.  Against us, she really did not need to drive.

But last night, the vast majority of her shots were on drives to the basket and free throws.  Just like Kelsey Plum, Juju drives and leaps into defenders while shooting acrobatic shots that almost always go in, or that generating fouls and free throws.  Some of the best body control in the game.  Last night, 14 of her 33 points game on free throws.  Against us last time, 17 of her points came on free throws.  So she does not only score, she knocks opposing players out of games.

I have no idea what we can do to defend her.  Agara is the right height to defender her, but cannot keep up with her lateral speed.  Lepolo has the lateral speed but gives up 7 inches.  Not quite as much as Londyn Jones gave up trying to defend her at times last night.  Charisma Osborne did a very creditable job last night but gives up 5 inches, and even her excellent defense did not stop 33 points.  I think we will be lucky to keep Watkins in the 30s, unless her injury prevents her from playing.

Something we can control more is our own offense, and what we do against the USC defense.  We were pretty cold against USC last time out.  We did not take that many three point shots and missed those we did.  And Brink and Iriafen were not efficient inside, going 10/32 collectively.  USC tied us in rebounding and had more O-boards than we did.  Rayah Marshall fouled out but not before she messed up our inside game sufficiently.  Watkins was the offense (Forbes had 12, no one else on USC more than 2) and that left 4 players free to concentrate on defense.  And we wound up shootings a miserable 32% on offense.  We will need more than the 3 offensive threats of Brink, Iriafen, and Jump.  We will need some genuine production out of Lepolo, Bosgana, and the bench if we expect to win.  We may need to score close to 80 points, and the USC defense is not a sieve.

All in all, a great opportunity for us to redeem ourselves.  But a very tough task ahead.

Oregon State did a very good job in defending Watkins and that was without Beers playing.  It seemed that OSU did a good job of getting a hand up in her face when she started to shoot.  OSU has two guards that are 6'-1" each who played 23 and 31 minutes and one that is 6'-2" who played 17 minutes.  Don't know how much time they spent guarding Watkins.  The OSU coach is know for his ability to develop a defensive game plan to slow down the other team's best shooters.