(03-25-2024, 05:58 PM)msqueri Wrote:(03-25-2024, 03:29 PM)BillBradley Wrote: Let me be clear: I am thrilled that Kyle Smith is our coach. BUT, he's basically just a solid coach. At USF he was 28-24 in the WCC and at WSU he was 49-48. His past performance isn't really much to brag about.
San Francisco Dons (West Coast Conference) (2016–2019)
2016–17 San Francisco 20–13 10–8 T–4th CBI First Round
2017–18 San Francisco 22–17 9–9 T–4th CBI Runner-Up
2018–19 San Francisco 21–10 9–7 4th
San Francisco: 63–40 (.612) 28–24 (.538)
Washington State Cougars (Pac-12 Conference) (2019–2024)
2019–20 Washington State 16–16 6–12 11th
2020–21 Washington State 14–13 7–12 10th
2021–22 Washington State 22–15 11–9 T–5th NIT Semifinals
2022–23 Washington State 17–17 11–9 T–5th NIT First Round
2023–24 Washington State 25–10 14–6 2nd NCAA Division I Round of 32
Washington State: 94–71 (.570) 49–48 (.505)
This is a misleading way to look at it. Smith has coached at schools that have historically had a lot of trouble stringing together wins. A better way to look at it:
Columbia ranks pre-Smith, with Smith (2011-2016), and post-Smith:
2002: #239
2003: #316
2004: #267
2005: #250
2006: #297
2007: #206
2008: #262
2009: #280
2010: #297
2011: #214
2012: #184
2013: #196
2014: #119
2015: #165
2016: #113
2017: #235
2018: #231
2019: #215
2020: #299
2021: #286
2022: #351
2023: #341
2024: #235
Columbia median without Smith: #267
Columbia median under Smith: #165/#184
San Francisco ranks pre-Smith, with Smith (2017-2019), and post-Smith:
2002: #156
2003: #118
2004: #174
2005: #125
2006: #152
2007: #157
2008: #254
2009: #244
2010: #204
2011: #148
2012: #145
2013: #134
2014: #88
2015: #144
2016: #205
2017: #111
2018: #158
2019: #67
2020: #74
2021: #93
2022: #23 (tournament)
2023: #101
2024: #70
San Francisco median without Smith: #144/#145
San Francisco median under Smith: #111
Washington State ranks pre-Smith and with Smith (2020-2024):
2002: #216
2003: #208
2004: #126
2005: #79
2006: #99
2007: #27 (tournament)
2008: #10 (tournament)
2009: #49
2010: #115
2011: #60
2012: #99
2013: #90
2014: #190
2015: #186
2016: #186
2017: #193
2018: #186
2019: #207
2020: #127
2021: #78
2022: #44
2023: #67
2024: #39 (tournament)
Washington State median without Smith: #115/#126
Washington State median under Smith: #67
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The right way to think about this is that Smith always coaches at places that face tough rows to hoe and, so far, he has always coached them far better than their norm.
Now he is coming to Stanford, a program qualitatively different than he's ever experienced in terms of ceiling. This century, the three programs Smith has coached have combined to make four NCAA tournaments and one Sweet Sixteen. In that span, Stanford alone, despite a lost last eight years, has made eight NCAA tournaments and three Sweet Sixteens. Smith is coming to a totally different level of program than he's ever coached at. The optimistic way to look at it is that he showed what he could do at deeply limited programs and now will have a much higher ceiling at a program with much greater advantages. The pessimistic way to look at it is that he's moving a step up in expectations and at some point some coaches find their level and can't keep leveling up. I think there may be something to both but I think there is more reason to be optimistic about Smith than practically any coach we've hired in a major sport in my lifetime, which is 40 years and counting. (Yes, Bob, Montgomery and Harbaugh turned out great, but at time of hire they were not even remotely close to as accomplished and obviously qualified as Smith is)
P.S. For perspective, Stanford's median is #66.
In 14 years, he's made the tournament once. That's the baseline we're working off of here. The men's team is in a dark spot, but if improvement entails just being slightly better in rank while making the tournament just once or none during an 8 year tenure - it will be a bad hire.