[skip75]

So far the SEC/ACC challenge is not going well for our new conference; the SEC went 5-0 in the first set of games and is leading in all but the Kentucky Clemson game.

So far #3 Tennessee crushed Syracuse, South Carolina handily beat BC, Missouri beat Cal, Georgia beat Notre Dame and Arkansas beat Miami, LSU is up on Florida State, Ole Miss is beating Louisville, Texas A&M is up on Wake Forest, and Oklahoma is beating Georgia Tech. Clemson up on #4 Kentucky is the only game that the ACC is leading.  Not good for our RPI.

BC

And that’s how it ended.  Aside from the big time upset of Kentucky, the ACC went 1-9 against the SEC.  I thought we were supposed to be a basketball conference.

BC

Not all that surprising.  Can't find the point spreads anymore now that the games are over, but I think the SEC teams were favored in just about every game - I think Louisville was a slight favorite.  We might think of the ACC as a basketball conference, but whether you put any stock in Massey, KenPom, ESPN BPI, or the good old AP poll, pretty much across the board, the ACC doesn't seem to have any high end teams beyond Duke, UNC, Pitt, & Clemson.  Just looking at KenPom, the SEC has 13 of the top 50 teams, while the ACC has 4.  Big 12 has 8, Big 10 has 13.

That's one reason why I've been more optimistic than some others about the prospects for Stanford's season.  If Stanford can come out of the Dead Week/Finals break with a win vs. Merrimack, they can finish 8-3 in non-league games even with a loss to Oregon.  So an 8-12 league record would put them at 16-15 - a winning record "as good"(?) as any of the past 4 seasons.  Breaking even in ACC games would raise it to 18-13, which I think would make most of us ecstatic.

Looking at their ACC schedule, let's figure they go 0-4 vs. that top ACC tier (Duke, UNC, Pitt & Clemson - all on the road).  Using the ratings above as a guide, it looks like a bottom tier might include Georgia Tech (road game), BC (home), VaTech (home) & Cal (2 games). Optimistically, maybe we go 4-1 in those, including a split with the Weenies.  A second tier could include Louisville (road), SMU (2 games), FSU (home), & NC St (home).  Maybe Stanford gets 1 or 2 wins out of those 3 home games, so 1-4 or 2-3.  Then the 3rd tier would include Wake (2 games), ND (road), Syracuse (home), UVa (home), Miami (home), & Stanford.  Let's figure Stanford goes 4-2, winning at home & losing on the road.  That "cardinal-colored glasses" view gets the ACC record to 9-11 or 10-10.

I'm not predicting any of this - still too early based on the easy schedule so far.  But I look at it as a roadmap to how we are progressing on getting past that .500 barrier.  In the near term, I would hope for, a competitive game at Cal (possible win?), a win vs Merrimack, and a competitive game vs Oregon (too much to ask?).  Further out, the New Year starts with a tough road trip to Clemson & Pitt.  So even in my optimistic scenario, we start out 0-3 in the ACC.

My hope is that Stanford can step up in competitiveness & especially consistency through these next 5 games and be ready go toe-to-toe with at least half of the ACC opponents by the time of the first ACC home game - Jan 8 vs Va Tech.  If I'm reading the ACC post-season tourney schedule correctly, 15 teams (out of 18) qualify, #5-9 get byes to the 2nd round, and #1-4 get byes to the quarterfinals.  Stanford would exceed the media preseason poll by just qualifying (they were tabbed for 17th, ahead of only BC).  So maybe a worthy goal is getting to the 2nd round, either by finishing in the top 9 or by winning a first round game.

[skip75]

So far the SEC/ACC challenge is not going well for our new conference; the SEC went 5-0 in the first set of games and is leading in all but the Kentucky Clemson game.

So far #3 Tennessee crushed Syracuse, South Carolina handily beat BC, Missouri beat Cal, Georgia beat Notre Dame and Arkansas beat Miami, LSU is up on Florida State, Ole Miss is beating Louisville, Texas A&M is up on Wake Forest, and Oklahoma is beating Georgia Tech. Clemson up on #4 Kentucky is the only game that the ACC is leading.  Not good for our RPI.

BC

And that’s how it ended.  Aside from the big time upset of Kentucky, the ACC went 1-9 against the SEC.  I thought we were supposed to be a basketball conference.

BC

Not all that surprising.  Can't find the point spreads anymore now that the games are over, but I think the SEC teams were favored in just about every game - I think Louisville was a slight favorite.  We might think of the ACC as a basketball conference, but whether you put any stock in Massey, KenPom, ESPN BPI, or the good old AP poll, pretty much across the board, the ACC doesn't seem to have any high end teams beyond Duke, UNC, Pitt, & Clemson.  Just looking at KenPom, the SEC has 13 of the top 50 teams, while the ACC has 4.  Big 12 has 8, Big 10 has 13.

That's one reason why I've been more optimistic than some others about the prospects for Stanford's season.  If Stanford can come out of the Dead Week/Finals break with a win vs. Merrimack, they can finish 8-3 in non-league games even with a loss to Oregon.  So an 8-12 league record would put them at 16-15 - a winning record "as good"(?) as any of the past 4 seasons.  Breaking even in ACC games would raise it to 18-13, which I think would make most of us ecstatic.

Looking at their ACC schedule, let's figure they go 0-4 vs. that top ACC tier (Duke, UNC, Pitt & Clemson - all on the road).  Using the ratings above as a guide, it looks like a bottom tier might include Georgia Tech (road game), BC (home), VaTech (home) & Cal (2 games). Optimistically, maybe we go 4-1 in those, including a split with the Weenies.  A second tier could include Louisville (road), SMU (2 games), FSU (home), & NC St (home).  Maybe Stanford gets 1 or 2 wins out of those 3 home games, so 1-4 or 2-3.  Then the 3rd tier would include Wake (2 games), ND (road), Syracuse (home), UVa (home), Miami (home), & Stanford.  Let's figure Stanford goes 4-2, winning at home & losing on the road.  That "cardinal-colored glasses" view gets the ACC record to 9-11 or 10-10.

I'm not predicting any of this - still too early based on the easy schedule so far.  But I look at it as a roadmap to how we are progressing on getting past that .500 barrier.  In the near term, I would hope for, a competitive game at Cal (possible win?), a win vs Merrimack, and a competitive game vs Oregon (too much to ask?).  Further out, the New Year starts with a tough road trip to Clemson & Pitt.  So even in my optimistic scenario, we start out 0-3 in the ACC.

My hope is that Stanford can step up in competitiveness & especially consistency through these next 5 games and be ready go toe-to-toe with at least half of the ACC opponents by the time of the first ACC home game - Jan 8 vs Va Tech.  If I'm reading the ACC post-season tourney schedule correctly, 15 teams (out of 18) qualify, #5-9 get byes to the 2nd round, and #1-4 get byes to the quarterfinals.  Stanford would exceed the media preseason poll by just qualifying (they were tabbed for 17th, ahead of only BC).  So maybe a worthy goal is getting to the 2nd round, either by finishing in the top 9 or by winning a first round game.