[MV72018]

I think similarly about this topic. I don't think anyone can even fathom AI's net effect on the economy, jobs, types of jobs, new products and other innovations. I just hope that we're smart enough as a society to put up the right guardrails along the way. 

I can recall an article published by Time Magazine many years ago about the effects on society of the washing machine. I can't find it online, so I'll attempt to summarize in hopes that I remembered it correctly :> The electric washing machine was introduced in the early 1900's. At that time, people owned a few "everyday outfits". Washing was done by hand a few times/week and was very laborious - buckets of water/soap, scrubbing boards, rinsing, hanging to dry. Clothes were thicker and made to last. When the electric washing machine was introduced, not everyone could afford one. Hence, the laundromat was born. Because of the efficiency gains, much less time was spent on laundry in the next few decades. However, a study was done in the 80's showing that the amount of time spent on laundry had actually increased compared to the early 1900's. The reason was that people recognized the decrease in "clothes maintenance" time, so they bought more clothes. Different types of clothing material (e.g. polyester) gave birth to different styles and price points. The fashion industry took off. And then houses were designed with walk-in closets. What was initially an invention to simply save time doing laundry actually became a catalyst for an entire new industry of clothing companies and other innovations. That story has always stuck with me whenever I read about things like these predictions that AI will obliterate our workforce.

Re your sentence, "I just hope that we're smart enough as a society to put up the right guardrails along the way", as long as "Mr. Anti-Guardrails" controls the government and seeks to ingratiate himself to deep-pockets Silicon Valley AI leaders, then I believe your "hope" is little more than a pipedream. The dominant approach that our society takes to potentially problematic new technologies in this society I call the "bandaid" approach. The massive assumption is made that we should let the technology development and diffusion process proceed unfettered since, it is held, if anything goes wrong downstream in terms of its effects, we can always come up with a suitable "bandaid"/fix in time to stop/prevent/substantially mitigate or reverse those disturbing effects. I regard that assumption as naive since by the time the significant problematic effects reveal themselves to a critical mass of  people, the technology will likely be so entrenched in society and so much will have been invested in it that it will be effectively impossible to stop or brake it.

[MV72018]

I think similarly about this topic. I don't think anyone can even fathom AI's net effect on the economy, jobs, types of jobs, new products and other innovations. I just hope that we're smart enough as a society to put up the right guardrails along the way. 

I can recall an article published by Time Magazine many years ago about the effects on society of the washing machine. I can't find it online, so I'll attempt to summarize in hopes that I remembered it correctly :> The electric washing machine was introduced in the early 1900's. At that time, people owned a few "everyday outfits". Washing was done by hand a few times/week and was very laborious - buckets of water/soap, scrubbing boards, rinsing, hanging to dry. Clothes were thicker and made to last. When the electric washing machine was introduced, not everyone could afford one. Hence, the laundromat was born. Because of the efficiency gains, much less time was spent on laundry in the next few decades. However, a study was done in the 80's showing that the amount of time spent on laundry had actually increased compared to the early 1900's. The reason was that people recognized the decrease in "clothes maintenance" time, so they bought more clothes. Different types of clothing material (e.g. polyester) gave birth to different styles and price points. The fashion industry took off. And then houses were designed with walk-in closets. What was initially an invention to simply save time doing laundry actually became a catalyst for an entire new industry of clothing companies and other innovations. That story has always stuck with me whenever I read about things like these predictions that AI will obliterate our workforce.

Re your sentence, "I just hope that we're smart enough as a society to put up the right guardrails along the way", as long as "Mr. Anti-Guardrails" controls the government and seeks to ingratiate himself to deep-pockets Silicon Valley AI leaders, then I believe your "hope" is little more than a pipedream. The dominant approach that our society takes to potentially problematic new technologies in this society I call the "bandaid" approach. The massive assumption is made that we should let the technology development and diffusion process proceed unfettered since, it is held, if anything goes wrong downstream in terms of its effects, we can always come up with a suitable "bandaid"/fix in time to stop/prevent/substantially mitigate or reverse those disturbing effects. I regard that assumption as naive since by the time the significant problematic effects reveal themselves to a critical mass of  people, the technology will likely be so entrenched in society and so much will have been invested in it that it will be effectively impossible to stop or brake it.