[BostonCard]

The ESPN scoreboard had 53 NCAA MBB games on it.  Each of those games at some point had one of the teams reaching a 95% probability of winning; the majority of them actually won the game, but you wouldn’t expect them all to win.

If you do the math, the probability of at least one team today that is down to a 5% chance of winning pulling through is 93% (or the flip side, the chances that all 53 teams that got up to a 95% probability of winning all winning is only 7%).  There’s actually a higher probability that at least 4 teams down to their last 5% winning probability pull it off (12%) than there is that 0 do.  Even the TCU/Kansas scenario (with probability down to 1.4% has about an even chance of happening in at least one game when 53 are played. 

BC

[BostonCard]

The ESPN scoreboard had 53 NCAA MBB games on it.  Each of those games at some point had one of the teams reaching a 95% probability of winning; the majority of them actually won the game, but you wouldn’t expect them all to win.

If you do the math, the probability of at least one team today that is down to a 5% chance of winning pulling through is 93% (or the flip side, the chances that all 53 teams that got up to a 95% probability of winning all winning is only 7%).  There’s actually a higher probability that at least 4 teams down to their last 5% winning probability pull it off (12%) than there is that 0 do.  Even the TCU/Kansas scenario (with probability down to 1.4% has about an even chance of happening in at least one game when 53 are played. 

BC