01-31-2026, 12:03 PM
Can Stanford get a split on the road trip? Florida State is favored by 2.5, over/under is 150.5 - so the implied score is 76.5-74. The Seminoles are 9-12, 2-6 in ACC play (including wins at Miami & vs. Cal among their three most recent games), and 8-4 at home. Records by Quads are 1-7, 1-4, 0-1, & 7-0. They have suffered some blow-out losses, but only lost to Duke by 4 points.
I was quite surprised to hear Joe Lunardi name Stanford among the "next 4 out" in his NCAA tourney bracketology during the Miami game. I've seen them listed in NIT brackets, but never that close to the NCAA bracket. And I think most of us agree - that's not happening. But games like this one will go a long way to determining their place in the ACC tourney (as of now they would be in, but without a 1st round bye) and potentially the NIT (after the Miami loss, I've seen Stanford as the #20 team in an NIT bracket projection).
FSU is #17 in the ACC in scoring defense at 79.6 ppg. They are also #17 in FG% at 42.0% - Stanford is #16 at 43%. In opponents FG%, the Noles are #16 (45.1%), while Stanford is dead last at 45.9%. So at both ends of the court this could be the resistible force against the movable object. They are #16 in rebound margin (-1.6). Threes were a big part of their offense for much of the season - they are 4th in the ACC with 10.4/game. But they are 17th in 3s% at 32.1%. Part of their recent success has been a result of taking fewer shots from beyond the arc.
Stanford beat FSU at Maples last year 78-71. But only one player who got into that game for the Noles (Alier Maluk) is even on their roster this year - and he has been a bit player who did not see any action vs. Cal. They have a new young coach, Luke Loucks, an FSU grad who was on the Golden State Warriors staff during two of their championship seasons. Another player who is unlikely to play today is the most appropriate guy on the FSU roster - Xavier Osceola, whose grandfather was President/Vice Chair of the Seminole tribe. Xavier is the great-great-great-great-great grandson of Chief Osceola himself.
Likely starters include:
#6 Robert McCray (6'4 188 Sr G) 2 years at Wake Forest, 2 at Jacksonville where he was All-Atlantic Sun 1st team. Top 25 in ACC in: scoring (14.1ppg); FG% (44.6); assists (#2 with 6.4apg); assist/TO ratio (1.6); & steals (1.3/game).
#7 Chauncey Wiggins (6'10/225 Sr F) 3 years at Clemson - he started against Stanford last year and got 17 pts & 5 rebounds. A big who likes to shoot the 3 - scores 14.0ppg, including 1.9 3s/game.
#10 Lajae Jones (6'7/220 Sr G) Another 4/4 guy - 4 schools (or should I say 4 teams) in 4 years. 11.0 ppg, #17 in ACC with 1.0 blocks/game
#25 Alex Steen (6'9/230 Sr F) 3 years at Div II Florida Southern. #23 in ACC with 5.9 rebounds/game
#3 Thomas Bassong (6'8/203 Fr F)
FSU relies on a deep rotation (9 players average 14-28 minutes per game, none are in the ACC top 25) including Martin Somerville (their leading 3-point shooter) and AJ Swinton, who they claim is "one of the most athletic players in the ACC".
Since losing Okpara, Stanford has lacked depth of players who provide a significant contribution. Seems like the model for wins at this point might be like in the UNC game - a super-human effort by Okorie with strong support from a couple others (Agarwal & Dent-Smith in that case). It would be nice to share the load with consistency up & down the roster, but I'm not sure if that's a reasonable expectation at this point.
I was quite surprised to hear Joe Lunardi name Stanford among the "next 4 out" in his NCAA tourney bracketology during the Miami game. I've seen them listed in NIT brackets, but never that close to the NCAA bracket. And I think most of us agree - that's not happening. But games like this one will go a long way to determining their place in the ACC tourney (as of now they would be in, but without a 1st round bye) and potentially the NIT (after the Miami loss, I've seen Stanford as the #20 team in an NIT bracket projection).
FSU is #17 in the ACC in scoring defense at 79.6 ppg. They are also #17 in FG% at 42.0% - Stanford is #16 at 43%. In opponents FG%, the Noles are #16 (45.1%), while Stanford is dead last at 45.9%. So at both ends of the court this could be the resistible force against the movable object. They are #16 in rebound margin (-1.6). Threes were a big part of their offense for much of the season - they are 4th in the ACC with 10.4/game. But they are 17th in 3s% at 32.1%. Part of their recent success has been a result of taking fewer shots from beyond the arc.
Stanford beat FSU at Maples last year 78-71. But only one player who got into that game for the Noles (Alier Maluk) is even on their roster this year - and he has been a bit player who did not see any action vs. Cal. They have a new young coach, Luke Loucks, an FSU grad who was on the Golden State Warriors staff during two of their championship seasons. Another player who is unlikely to play today is the most appropriate guy on the FSU roster - Xavier Osceola, whose grandfather was President/Vice Chair of the Seminole tribe. Xavier is the great-great-great-great-great grandson of Chief Osceola himself.
Likely starters include:
#6 Robert McCray (6'4 188 Sr G) 2 years at Wake Forest, 2 at Jacksonville where he was All-Atlantic Sun 1st team. Top 25 in ACC in: scoring (14.1ppg); FG% (44.6); assists (#2 with 6.4apg); assist/TO ratio (1.6); & steals (1.3/game).
#7 Chauncey Wiggins (6'10/225 Sr F) 3 years at Clemson - he started against Stanford last year and got 17 pts & 5 rebounds. A big who likes to shoot the 3 - scores 14.0ppg, including 1.9 3s/game.
#10 Lajae Jones (6'7/220 Sr G) Another 4/4 guy - 4 schools (or should I say 4 teams) in 4 years. 11.0 ppg, #17 in ACC with 1.0 blocks/game
#25 Alex Steen (6'9/230 Sr F) 3 years at Div II Florida Southern. #23 in ACC with 5.9 rebounds/game
#3 Thomas Bassong (6'8/203 Fr F)
FSU relies on a deep rotation (9 players average 14-28 minutes per game, none are in the ACC top 25) including Martin Somerville (their leading 3-point shooter) and AJ Swinton, who they claim is "one of the most athletic players in the ACC".
Since losing Okpara, Stanford has lacked depth of players who provide a significant contribution. Seems like the model for wins at this point might be like in the UNC game - a super-human effort by Okorie with strong support from a couple others (Agarwal & Dent-Smith in that case). It would be nice to share the load with consistency up & down the roster, but I'm not sure if that's a reasonable expectation at this point.