[needle]

For better or worse (mostly worse), here are the preseason win probabilities for each of Stanford's games according to something called ESPN Analytics:

Hawaii (home) 60.6%
Miami  (home) 5.9%
Duke (away) 22.5%
Georgia Tech (home) 39.7%
Wake Forest (away) 20%
Notre Dame (away) 1.6%
Elon (home) 95.5%
NC State (home) 38%
Louisville (away) 9.8%
Virginia Tech (away) 15.2%
Cal (away) 32.1%
SMU (home) 20.6%

I'm sticking to my "optimistic" prediction of 4 wins: Hawaii, Elon, Cal (because I must) and an upset somewhere along the way.

I like Stanford's chances against Duke. The biggest reason is that the team has a bye week after Miami, so there will be two weeks to gameplan. 

Also, Duke starts out with two tough games, Tulane (in the CFP last year) and Illinois (No. 9 in B1G pre-season media poll), and it's tough to get fired up and play your best three weeks in a row. 

Finally, Duke's starting QB is very possibly Walker Eget, who Stanford played last year (his stat line as a San Jose State Spartan in that game: 36/58 473, 3 TDs and 0 INTs). Familiarity with a QB should only help, even if he will be playing in a different offensive system.

[needle]

For better or worse (mostly worse), here are the preseason win probabilities for each of Stanford's games according to something called ESPN Analytics:

Hawaii (home) 60.6%
Miami  (home) 5.9%
Duke (away) 22.5%
Georgia Tech (home) 39.7%
Wake Forest (away) 20%
Notre Dame (away) 1.6%
Elon (home) 95.5%
NC State (home) 38%
Louisville (away) 9.8%
Virginia Tech (away) 15.2%
Cal (away) 32.1%
SMU (home) 20.6%

I'm sticking to my "optimistic" prediction of 4 wins: Hawaii, Elon, Cal (because I must) and an upset somewhere along the way.

I like Stanford's chances against Duke. The biggest reason is that the team has a bye week after Miami, so there will be two weeks to gameplan. 

Also, Duke starts out with two tough games, Tulane (in the CFP last year) and Illinois (No. 9 in B1G pre-season media poll), and it's tough to get fired up and play your best three weeks in a row. 

Finally, Duke's starting QB is very possibly Walker Eget, who Stanford played last year (his stat line as a San Jose State Spartan in that game: 36/58 473, 3 TDs and 0 INTs). Familiarity with a QB should only help, even if he will be playing in a different offensive system.