09-20-2026, 11:48 AM
5. The brightest spot was our run game. While it was our lowest rushing output and efficiency of the season, that was a function of the four sacks allowed. A silver lining may be that seeing what our run game looks like when the line completely collapses in the face of a pass rush (remember that college does the goofy thing of counting sacks as run losses) arguably shows signs of improvement in the designed run play game. Not only were our run stats better than eight games last year, Duke may have a respectable run defense: the Blue Devils gave both Tulane and Illinois run games their biggest punches in the mouth on the young season. Pass defense was the next least bad phase, with fairly typical efficiency stats, below average in yards per attempt allowed and above average in opponent passer rating due to the interception. We defended the pass better than Illinois and worse than Tulane. This is pretty cold comfort though. Eget is one of the worst QBs in the country this year. Georgia Tech, Elon, and Cal are the only games remaining that don't have clearly difficult QB matchups (and pundits might argue otherwise on Cal). In the disaster category was our own passing game - the worst passing efficiency stats of our last seven games and the worst anybody has done against Duke in the last 20 games (falling just shy of Elon's efficiency) - and run defense, which was dominated on the ground the worst it has been since the 2024 NC State game. I am a really big fan of Sheppard and think he could be a Doak Walker finalist, but there are some indications that these early stats overrate the Duke run game. I don't want to chalk this up too much to the enemy gets a vote as Tulane did as badly against the run against Kansas State as they did against Duke and Illinois couldn't stop UAB either (and again neither the Wildcats nor Illini got carved like we did).
6. We probably should have known Warren would have a regression toward the mean. He had a very weak Total QBR, 106th of 127 QBs nationally this week. For him personally, it ranked 10th among his 12 career QB1 starts (so I would call this bad but not an outlier, a sobering reminder). Compared to last year's abysmal Stanford QB play, it was worse than 10 Gulbranson/Brown performances and better than only three (comparable to one). Warren is clearly capable of not looking very good out there, especially when he comes under pressure, and our PFF #127 pass blocking on the year is probably a better predictor of protection to come than our #89 sacks allowed (which is itself bad). We should measure our expectations of what we expect Warren to do this year. He is currently 78th of 140 QBs in Total QBR on the year. I would take that if he could go the whole year at that level, that's how bad I think we are. It would be stabilizing for us if Warren could have three games like these last three three more times. Sad but true. By the way, for those inclined to defend Warren on the basis of drops, Total QBR accounts for drops. Nonetheless, drops have been an utter killer on our ability to sustain drives. PFF views Warren's drop percentage as 147th of 150 QBs in the nation (for those asking, that's 16 of Warren's passes dropped, with LaNorris Sellers' 11 the next closest in the nation). Warren definitely deserves a share of the blame for not putting balls on target but receivers are not doing him any favors. There are 406 receivers with at least nine targets and we have three guys 380th or worse (Hall, Robinson, High). Drops are killing the offense. It's been an every game thing so this is a thing.
7. It really sucked to see the afflicted welcome to their ranks Caden High (who I would say aside from those drops has been the best player on the roster this year....but drops count so he's only top three along with Warren and Nicholson). He's the least of my worries long-term, one of the only players on our roster who looks like he would start for most good power teams. I can only imagine where we would have been in this game were it not for High and Ford, who had the fourth highest yards from scrimmage of his career and third best career game on a per touch basis. I am relieved Hall had two catches moving the chains and for once didn't drop any. [Moving the chains (first down) leaderboard: Ford (5), High (4), Hall (2), Blackburn (2), Irvin, Hampton] Many have lamented Nico Brown only playing 15 snaps and then having one of the plays of the year in garbage time. I think it's pretty obvious he was on the same recovery reintroduction as High the previous game and will be one of our key guys next week. That will be nice to see Warren with his full receiver complement, which is good timing because Georgia Tech has a good pass defense. Regarding the line play, the eye test was ugly and PFF didn't miss the obvious, that House was brutalized, Hoitink was a weak link, and no linemen were good.
6. We probably should have known Warren would have a regression toward the mean. He had a very weak Total QBR, 106th of 127 QBs nationally this week. For him personally, it ranked 10th among his 12 career QB1 starts (so I would call this bad but not an outlier, a sobering reminder). Compared to last year's abysmal Stanford QB play, it was worse than 10 Gulbranson/Brown performances and better than only three (comparable to one). Warren is clearly capable of not looking very good out there, especially when he comes under pressure, and our PFF #127 pass blocking on the year is probably a better predictor of protection to come than our #89 sacks allowed (which is itself bad). We should measure our expectations of what we expect Warren to do this year. He is currently 78th of 140 QBs in Total QBR on the year. I would take that if he could go the whole year at that level, that's how bad I think we are. It would be stabilizing for us if Warren could have three games like these last three three more times. Sad but true. By the way, for those inclined to defend Warren on the basis of drops, Total QBR accounts for drops. Nonetheless, drops have been an utter killer on our ability to sustain drives. PFF views Warren's drop percentage as 147th of 150 QBs in the nation (for those asking, that's 16 of Warren's passes dropped, with LaNorris Sellers' 11 the next closest in the nation). Warren definitely deserves a share of the blame for not putting balls on target but receivers are not doing him any favors. There are 406 receivers with at least nine targets and we have three guys 380th or worse (Hall, Robinson, High). Drops are killing the offense. It's been an every game thing so this is a thing.
7. It really sucked to see the afflicted welcome to their ranks Caden High (who I would say aside from those drops has been the best player on the roster this year....but drops count so he's only top three along with Warren and Nicholson). He's the least of my worries long-term, one of the only players on our roster who looks like he would start for most good power teams. I can only imagine where we would have been in this game were it not for High and Ford, who had the fourth highest yards from scrimmage of his career and third best career game on a per touch basis. I am relieved Hall had two catches moving the chains and for once didn't drop any. [Moving the chains (first down) leaderboard: Ford (5), High (4), Hall (2), Blackburn (2), Irvin, Hampton] Many have lamented Nico Brown only playing 15 snaps and then having one of the plays of the year in garbage time. I think it's pretty obvious he was on the same recovery reintroduction as High the previous game and will be one of our key guys next week. That will be nice to see Warren with his full receiver complement, which is good timing because Georgia Tech has a good pass defense. Regarding the line play, the eye test was ugly and PFF didn't miss the obvious, that House was brutalized, Hoitink was a weak link, and no linemen were good.