[needle]

Re: the Georgia Tech spread, Sagarin would have us as 5.5 point underdogs using a historically normal home field advantage and 3.5 point underdogs using the home field advantage that has evinced in college football so far this season, as low as a 2.5 point spread using some models from the last few years. SP+ looks like we should be a 4.5 to 6.5 point underdog. In other words, it seems to me that Vegas is currently pegging that Stanford will play Georgia Tech something like an average of how we've played so far in 2026. In terms of probability, this means that we have about a 37 percent chance of winning, with models varying between 32-39 percent.

Through two games, Duke's defense gave up 5.16 ypp while Georgia Tech's gave up 5.31 ypp. I think the quality of defense Stanford sees in the upcoming game will be comparable to what Duke put on the field. 

It's up to Stanford to show that last game was an aberration and score some touchdowns (emphasis on the plural). Or, it will, in fact, be time to give up hope on the season, imo.

[needle]

Re: the Georgia Tech spread, Sagarin would have us as 5.5 point underdogs using a historically normal home field advantage and 3.5 point underdogs using the home field advantage that has evinced in college football so far this season, as low as a 2.5 point spread using some models from the last few years. SP+ looks like we should be a 4.5 to 6.5 point underdog. In other words, it seems to me that Vegas is currently pegging that Stanford will play Georgia Tech something like an average of how we've played so far in 2026. In terms of probability, this means that we have about a 37 percent chance of winning, with models varying between 32-39 percent.

Through two games, Duke's defense gave up 5.16 ypp while Georgia Tech's gave up 5.31 ypp. I think the quality of defense Stanford sees in the upcoming game will be comparable to what Duke put on the field. 

It's up to Stanford to show that last game was an aberration and score some touchdowns (emphasis on the plural). Or, it will, in fact, be time to give up hope on the season, imo.