03-31-2014, 07:23 AM
Background:
North Carolina was a perennial final four team, much like Stanford has been lately, in the mid 2000s. Stanfords return to prominence on the national stage since the 2008 season coincided with North Carolina entering into a drought in recent final 4 appearances. In fact, the last time we played them was in 2011 in the sweet sixteen, when Nneka, Chiney, Toni, Jeanette, Kayla, and Lindy sent them home after a very physical and tough fight played in Spokane. That game was tied with 2 minutes left in the game. Chiney was 8/14 in that game and Ruef played just a couple of minutes. Toni hurt her ankle in that game, if I recall correctly, which hurt us down the stretch when she could play only 4 minutes against A&M. There is no one left on the North Carolina team that played that daythey do not have a single senior.
This year, North Carolinas beloved coach Sylvia Hatchell has been battling leukemia, and the team has been led by Associate Head Coach Andrew Calder. The team has been on an emotional crusade to play for Hatchell, as Diamond DeShields said yesterday after the win over South Carolina. Recently Hatchell announced that she is in remission but has one last chemo treatment to go, and that she hoped she could return to coach if her team made the final four. Wow, talk about an emotional motivator for her team!
http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basket...ery-doable
This year the story for North Carolinaalthough it pales besides Hatchell-- has been its superb class of frosh players who seem to have turned its fortunes for the better. They have been starting 3 frosh, a sophomore, and a junior. This had led to some inconsistent play, but also some high-level play. Nothing could exemplify that more than the NCAAs. In round one, UT Martin nearly knocked them off and was up 18 with 11 minutes left. UNC stormed back from that near-defeat and then dominated Michigan State and led South Carolina from beginning to end.
Record and Ranking:
North Carolina is 24-9 on the season, and 10-6 in the ACC conference. They finished tied for fifth in that conference behind Notre Dame, Duke, Maryland, and North Carolina State. They were knocked out of the ACC tournament in the semifinals by Duke, who they had beaten during the regular season.
Their wins over ranked teams have been over South Carolina (twice), Duke (they split their two games with Duke a week apart), Maryland, North Carolina State (twice), Florida State, and Nebraska.Â
Their losses have come from Tennessee, Arizona State, Maryland, Syracuse, Miami and Georgetown (the last three all in one week in January), Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Duke.Â
Sagarin has them ranked 13.Â
While Stanfords RPI was 3rd, NCs was 21st.
Stats:
Stat categories in which NC is in the top fifty nationally:
Scoring is 19th (Stanford 30th)
Scoring margin 14th (Stanford 9th)
FG% 31st (Stanford 8th)
FG% defense 31st (Stanford 10th)
Blocked shots 31st
Steals per game 6th
3 pt FG% defense 23th
Turnover margin 43rd
Common Opponents:
We actually have a lot of common opponents, but none since January:
Tennessee (NC -16, Stanford +6)
UCLA (NC +10, Stanford +17, +9)
Arizona State (NC -13 in overtime, Stanford +26)
Florida State (NC +4, Stanford +19)
Boston College (NC +17, Stanford +12)
With most common opponents, we have done better than NC. But keep in mind that NC is very dependent on its terrific freshman class, and is playing much better in the months since we had these common opponents.
Players:
Diamond DeShields (27.5) a 6'1" freshman guard. The daughter of major league baseball player Delino DeShields, she was the 2014 Naismith high school player of the year. She is UNCs leading scorer at 18 ppg. While she has taken the most three point shots for her team she makes only 28%. On the other hand, she has excellent ball control skills and poses a match up problem with her 6'1" height against much smaller guards. She can slash to the basket and grabs rebounds, and she has 91 assists on the season. I am not sure how we should defend her. Lili and Amber are probably too short, but I dont know if Bonnie or Taylor can keep up with her.
Allisha Gray (25.5) a 6'0" a freshman guard. Allisha is their second leading scorer at 14 ppg. She is their deadliest three point shooter at 42% and she shoots a lot of them. She gets a lot of offensive rebounds for a guard. Again, a 6' guard will pose some problems for Lili and Amber to guard on the perimeter.
Xylina McDaniel (26.4) a 6'2" sophomore forward. She averages 11 ppg, making 48% of her shots. She also hits 40% of her three pointers, although she takes about half as many as the guards.
Stephanie Mavunga (24.6) a 6'3" freshman forward. Mavunga is their big inside presence, averaging 11 ppg at 52%. She is only a 59% free throw shooter. She leads the team in blocks (90 on the year) and with rebounds with 8pg and gets almost as many offensive rebounds as defensive. She also leads the team in fouls and has fouled out 4 times this year.Â
Latifah Coleman (23.3) a 5'9" junior guard. Latifah is their starting point guard and handles the ball. She scores about 5 ppg. She has taken about 50 three point shots this year at 29% and scores about 39% overall. She has a positive assist/turnover ratio but nothing astronomical.
Brittany Rountree (20.2) a 5'9" junior guard. She is the back up point guard, but when UNC was ahead of South Carolina at the end and SC began to press, she was inserted to become the principle ball handler due to her 85% free throw shooting.
Thoughts:
One big question mark is how banged up Diamond DeShields is. South Carolina treated her very roughly and she had to leave the game twice to tape up. News stories have her aggravating a left knee injury and taping up her ankle "as tightly as possible." But she did come back in the game and played well both times.
On defense, the problem seems to be how to contain their perimeter players. They do have a couple of players who shoot the three very well, but they all seem to love to drive the ball fearlessly into the paint--the kind of guards that have given us problems this season. Amber can certainly handle Coleman or Rountree, Ruef can handle Mavunga, and Chiney could handle McDaniel. But who will match up with DeShields and with Gray, their two leading scorers? At 6' and 6'1", and with the ability to shoot and drive, I worry whether our guards are tall enough or our wings athletic enough. And the problem with a zone like we used against Florida State is that UNC can shoot the three much better than Florida State.
On offense, we simply have to make our shots. I don't think Mavunga or McDaniel could possibly handle Chiney one-on-one, so we are going to see some openings elsewhere. What I do think UNC does much better than other teams we have played is to box out and grab defensive rebounds. I don't see Chiney and Ruef getting many O-boards this game. Also, UNC loves the transition game and is fast. Since Tara hates to be beaten outside the half court, my guess is that she will be sending multiple players back on defense rather than keeping them in for O-boards. This will put a premium on shooting accuracy.
North Carolina was a perennial final four team, much like Stanford has been lately, in the mid 2000s. Stanfords return to prominence on the national stage since the 2008 season coincided with North Carolina entering into a drought in recent final 4 appearances. In fact, the last time we played them was in 2011 in the sweet sixteen, when Nneka, Chiney, Toni, Jeanette, Kayla, and Lindy sent them home after a very physical and tough fight played in Spokane. That game was tied with 2 minutes left in the game. Chiney was 8/14 in that game and Ruef played just a couple of minutes. Toni hurt her ankle in that game, if I recall correctly, which hurt us down the stretch when she could play only 4 minutes against A&M. There is no one left on the North Carolina team that played that daythey do not have a single senior.
This year, North Carolinas beloved coach Sylvia Hatchell has been battling leukemia, and the team has been led by Associate Head Coach Andrew Calder. The team has been on an emotional crusade to play for Hatchell, as Diamond DeShields said yesterday after the win over South Carolina. Recently Hatchell announced that she is in remission but has one last chemo treatment to go, and that she hoped she could return to coach if her team made the final four. Wow, talk about an emotional motivator for her team!
http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basket...ery-doable
This year the story for North Carolinaalthough it pales besides Hatchell-- has been its superb class of frosh players who seem to have turned its fortunes for the better. They have been starting 3 frosh, a sophomore, and a junior. This had led to some inconsistent play, but also some high-level play. Nothing could exemplify that more than the NCAAs. In round one, UT Martin nearly knocked them off and was up 18 with 11 minutes left. UNC stormed back from that near-defeat and then dominated Michigan State and led South Carolina from beginning to end.
Record and Ranking:
North Carolina is 24-9 on the season, and 10-6 in the ACC conference. They finished tied for fifth in that conference behind Notre Dame, Duke, Maryland, and North Carolina State. They were knocked out of the ACC tournament in the semifinals by Duke, who they had beaten during the regular season.
Their wins over ranked teams have been over South Carolina (twice), Duke (they split their two games with Duke a week apart), Maryland, North Carolina State (twice), Florida State, and Nebraska.Â
Their losses have come from Tennessee, Arizona State, Maryland, Syracuse, Miami and Georgetown (the last three all in one week in January), Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Duke.Â
Sagarin has them ranked 13.Â
While Stanfords RPI was 3rd, NCs was 21st.
Stats:
Stat categories in which NC is in the top fifty nationally:
Scoring is 19th (Stanford 30th)
Scoring margin 14th (Stanford 9th)
FG% 31st (Stanford 8th)
FG% defense 31st (Stanford 10th)
Blocked shots 31st
Steals per game 6th
3 pt FG% defense 23th
Turnover margin 43rd
Common Opponents:
We actually have a lot of common opponents, but none since January:
Tennessee (NC -16, Stanford +6)
UCLA (NC +10, Stanford +17, +9)
Arizona State (NC -13 in overtime, Stanford +26)
Florida State (NC +4, Stanford +19)
Boston College (NC +17, Stanford +12)
With most common opponents, we have done better than NC. But keep in mind that NC is very dependent on its terrific freshman class, and is playing much better in the months since we had these common opponents.
Players:
Diamond DeShields (27.5) a 6'1" freshman guard. The daughter of major league baseball player Delino DeShields, she was the 2014 Naismith high school player of the year. She is UNCs leading scorer at 18 ppg. While she has taken the most three point shots for her team she makes only 28%. On the other hand, she has excellent ball control skills and poses a match up problem with her 6'1" height against much smaller guards. She can slash to the basket and grabs rebounds, and she has 91 assists on the season. I am not sure how we should defend her. Lili and Amber are probably too short, but I dont know if Bonnie or Taylor can keep up with her.
Allisha Gray (25.5) a 6'0" a freshman guard. Allisha is their second leading scorer at 14 ppg. She is their deadliest three point shooter at 42% and she shoots a lot of them. She gets a lot of offensive rebounds for a guard. Again, a 6' guard will pose some problems for Lili and Amber to guard on the perimeter.
Xylina McDaniel (26.4) a 6'2" sophomore forward. She averages 11 ppg, making 48% of her shots. She also hits 40% of her three pointers, although she takes about half as many as the guards.
Stephanie Mavunga (24.6) a 6'3" freshman forward. Mavunga is their big inside presence, averaging 11 ppg at 52%. She is only a 59% free throw shooter. She leads the team in blocks (90 on the year) and with rebounds with 8pg and gets almost as many offensive rebounds as defensive. She also leads the team in fouls and has fouled out 4 times this year.Â
Latifah Coleman (23.3) a 5'9" junior guard. Latifah is their starting point guard and handles the ball. She scores about 5 ppg. She has taken about 50 three point shots this year at 29% and scores about 39% overall. She has a positive assist/turnover ratio but nothing astronomical.
Brittany Rountree (20.2) a 5'9" junior guard. She is the back up point guard, but when UNC was ahead of South Carolina at the end and SC began to press, she was inserted to become the principle ball handler due to her 85% free throw shooting.
Thoughts:
One big question mark is how banged up Diamond DeShields is. South Carolina treated her very roughly and she had to leave the game twice to tape up. News stories have her aggravating a left knee injury and taping up her ankle "as tightly as possible." But she did come back in the game and played well both times.
On defense, the problem seems to be how to contain their perimeter players. They do have a couple of players who shoot the three very well, but they all seem to love to drive the ball fearlessly into the paint--the kind of guards that have given us problems this season. Amber can certainly handle Coleman or Rountree, Ruef can handle Mavunga, and Chiney could handle McDaniel. But who will match up with DeShields and with Gray, their two leading scorers? At 6' and 6'1", and with the ability to shoot and drive, I worry whether our guards are tall enough or our wings athletic enough. And the problem with a zone like we used against Florida State is that UNC can shoot the three much better than Florida State.
On offense, we simply have to make our shots. I don't think Mavunga or McDaniel could possibly handle Chiney one-on-one, so we are going to see some openings elsewhere. What I do think UNC does much better than other teams we have played is to box out and grab defensive rebounds. I don't see Chiney and Ruef getting many O-boards this game. Also, UNC loves the transition game and is fast. Since Tara hates to be beaten outside the half court, my guess is that she will be sending multiple players back on defense rather than keeping them in for O-boards. This will put a premium on shooting accuracy.