[81alum]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=10788.msg101075#msg101075 date=1412563410]
Picking up on this thread a bit, I would be curious as to why Hogan is not performing as he was last year and the year before.  My suspicion is that the inability for us to truly establish the running game as we have the last several years, coupled with the inability of the offensive line to give him enough time to develop the long play action pass that were the signature of his play last year (especially). 

I think it's a couple of things. As you say, the ineffectiveness of the run places Hogan in more unfavorable positions.

But I think another factor is that Hogan is very effective as a complementary piece but not-so-effective as the leading piece. The stats between 2012 and 2014 are quite similar in many ways -- Hogan's averaging 27 passes/game this year, versus 25 passes/game in 2012, with similar YPA. (Though Hogan is much less effective when running the ball in 2014.) I suspect that a high volume of passing plays means Hogan has to *carry* the offense, as opposed to picking his spots where he can be most effective.

By contrast Hogan threw 21 times/game in 2013.

The lack of an offensive line, plus the middling effectiveness of the running backs, means the focus is on the passing offense, and I'm not sure Hogan can deliver. In that sense calling for a new QB is rational. But QBs who can carry offenses are pretty rare, so I suspect the hope is forlorn.
[/quote]

I think WIM has got it nailed.

Last year and before, the running back loomed so large in the minds of the opponents that we nearly always faced 8 or 9 in the box.  Sometimes this frustrated our running game, but it also made Hogan a far more effective passer off of play action or down the field with one on one coverage on Monty and Rector.  This year teams can bracket Monty and play more zone pass protection since they do not feel the need to keep 8 or 9 in the box.  The fact that our running game is averaging somewhere in the vicinity of last year's averages means it is actually quite inferior, since we are running much more against normal defenses than against stacked boxes.

In short, Hogan was far more effective when he had a dominant running game to keep the focus off of him.  Telegraphing throws is not so bad against man-on-man coverage--it is dangerous against zone and especially when you have extra safeties that can read the QB's eyes break and on the ball.  But if those safeties are up in run defense....

[81alum]

[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=10788.msg101075#msg101075 date=1412563410]
Picking up on this thread a bit, I would be curious as to why Hogan is not performing as he was last year and the year before.  My suspicion is that the inability for us to truly establish the running game as we have the last several years, coupled with the inability of the offensive line to give him enough time to develop the long play action pass that were the signature of his play last year (especially). 

I think it's a couple of things. As you say, the ineffectiveness of the run places Hogan in more unfavorable positions.

But I think another factor is that Hogan is very effective as a complementary piece but not-so-effective as the leading piece. The stats between 2012 and 2014 are quite similar in many ways -- Hogan's averaging 27 passes/game this year, versus 25 passes/game in 2012, with similar YPA. (Though Hogan is much less effective when running the ball in 2014.) I suspect that a high volume of passing plays means Hogan has to *carry* the offense, as opposed to picking his spots where he can be most effective.

By contrast Hogan threw 21 times/game in 2013.

The lack of an offensive line, plus the middling effectiveness of the running backs, means the focus is on the passing offense, and I'm not sure Hogan can deliver. In that sense calling for a new QB is rational. But QBs who can carry offenses are pretty rare, so I suspect the hope is forlorn.
[/quote]

I think WIM has got it nailed.

Last year and before, the running back loomed so large in the minds of the opponents that we nearly always faced 8 or 9 in the box.  Sometimes this frustrated our running game, but it also made Hogan a far more effective passer off of play action or down the field with one on one coverage on Monty and Rector.  This year teams can bracket Monty and play more zone pass protection since they do not feel the need to keep 8 or 9 in the box.  The fact that our running game is averaging somewhere in the vicinity of last year's averages means it is actually quite inferior, since we are running much more against normal defenses than against stacked boxes.

In short, Hogan was far more effective when he had a dominant running game to keep the focus off of him.  Telegraphing throws is not so bad against man-on-man coverage--it is dangerous against zone and especially when you have extra safeties that can read the QB's eyes break and on the ball.  But if those safeties are up in run defense....