[CTcard]

But "didn't turn out to make a difference" isn't really the best judge of whether or not something is a good decision, right? 

In this case, that it wasn't likely to make a difference was obvious at the time the decision was made.
In fact, presumably Yikes thought that the only chance of some kind of miracle come-back was a shake up in the offense.
And, to the extent it did make any difference, it at least coincided with c.a.l.'s offense perking up a tad.



p.s. I also disagree with the standard board parsing of whether a decision is good or not by multiplying together a bunch of percentages that not only are unknown, but are unknowable. Nobody bothers propagating the uncertainty in these numbers, which in most cases of interest are going to make all decisions equal.

[CTcard]

But "didn't turn out to make a difference" isn't really the best judge of whether or not something is a good decision, right? 

In this case, that it wasn't likely to make a difference was obvious at the time the decision was made.
In fact, presumably Yikes thought that the only chance of some kind of miracle come-back was a shake up in the offense.
And, to the extent it did make any difference, it at least coincided with c.a.l.'s offense perking up a tad.



p.s. I also disagree with the standard board parsing of whether a decision is good or not by multiplying together a bunch of percentages that not only are unknown, but are unknowable. Nobody bothers propagating the uncertainty in these numbers, which in most cases of interest are going to make all decisions equal.