11-23-2014, 10:35 PM
To be fair to CTCard, he's a physicist if I recall, and they (well, his particle physics cousins), require have a five-sigma requirement before they can announce the finding of a new particle. That's a p-value of 0.0000003 for those of you keeping track at home. Sample sizes in football are never that big.
But I think CTCard does bring up a good point about the error inherent in our calculations. It's there and it is probably much larger than we are willing to admit. But if we completely succumb to the tendency to say that any inference, statistical or otherwise, is within the limits of noise, and any prediction is worthless kind of takes the fun out of things. To the extent that I put up numbers in support of my points, it is usually either a) to overcome cognitive biases that are clearly present in this game and b) to either support or refute the "what do your eyes tell you?" argument, which can be helpful but can also be risky. Without wishing to re-litigate the whole kick/punt debate, I wish Shaw were a bit more aggressive in those situations, but in the end, I judge him on his larger body of work over four years as head coach, and not based on a couple plays.
But getting back to the dual-quarterback thing, I think Dykes could have gotten the spark he was looking for by inserting Rubenzer in to run the wildcat a few times. I thought 9 pass attempts was probably 7 too many (it was certainly 2 too many, lol).
BC
But I think CTCard does bring up a good point about the error inherent in our calculations. It's there and it is probably much larger than we are willing to admit. But if we completely succumb to the tendency to say that any inference, statistical or otherwise, is within the limits of noise, and any prediction is worthless kind of takes the fun out of things. To the extent that I put up numbers in support of my points, it is usually either a) to overcome cognitive biases that are clearly present in this game and b) to either support or refute the "what do your eyes tell you?" argument, which can be helpful but can also be risky. Without wishing to re-litigate the whole kick/punt debate, I wish Shaw were a bit more aggressive in those situations, but in the end, I judge him on his larger body of work over four years as head coach, and not based on a couple plays.
But getting back to the dual-quarterback thing, I think Dykes could have gotten the spark he was looking for by inserting Rubenzer in to run the wildcat a few times. I thought 9 pass attempts was probably 7 too many (it was certainly 2 too many, lol).
BC