12-03-2014, 04:15 AM
I hope Peat stays, but IF he is guaranteed (i.e. 2-3 "promises" from those holding 25-32 1st round picks) to be a low 1st rounder and even if he (and the scouts) think he can be a 1-8 1st rounder next year, it is a no-brainer to go into the draft. Why?
1. If he goes this year he most likely goes to a solid team (excluding bottom feeders who might have traded down). A solid team will more likely develop him rather than throw him into the fire prematurely.
2. If he goes low 1st round he will spend 2015 practising with and learning from professionals, rather than student athletes. Come 2016 he should be far better prepared to play significant minutes with a good team than if he stayed at the Farm.
3. If he waits and goes high next year he will most likely be drafted by a bottom-feeder (i.e. somebody with dire needs and poorer overall squad talent), and may be thrown into the fire before he is ready.
4. I doubt if the package he would get in 2015 (assuming 25-32 1st round) would be significantly worse than what he would get in 2016 (assuming 1-8 1st round).
5. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Stymie
1. If he goes this year he most likely goes to a solid team (excluding bottom feeders who might have traded down). A solid team will more likely develop him rather than throw him into the fire prematurely.
2. If he goes low 1st round he will spend 2015 practising with and learning from professionals, rather than student athletes. Come 2016 he should be far better prepared to play significant minutes with a good team than if he stayed at the Farm.
3. If he waits and goes high next year he will most likely be drafted by a bottom-feeder (i.e. somebody with dire needs and poorer overall squad talent), and may be thrown into the fire before he is ready.
4. I doubt if the package he would get in 2015 (assuming 25-32 1st round) would be significantly worse than what he would get in 2016 (assuming 1-8 1st round).
5. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Stymie
All models are wrong; some models are useful......
George Box
