[washingtonismoney]

WIM, you are absolutely right, of course.  But it turns out that if you are trying to maximize your chance of winning, you should go for the higher beta (I'm using beta in the financial sense, to mean risk) strategy with an inferior team, and the lower beta strategy with superior teams.

No question about it. But the psychology is tough for people to overcome -- even among people who know better. (This is your periodic plug for Thinking Fast and Slow)

[washingtonismoney]

WIM, you are absolutely right, of course.  But it turns out that if you are trying to maximize your chance of winning, you should go for the higher beta (I'm using beta in the financial sense, to mean risk) strategy with an inferior team, and the lower beta strategy with superior teams.

No question about it. But the psychology is tough for people to overcome -- even among people who know better. (This is your periodic plug for Thinking Fast and Slow)