(10-04-2015, 02:17 PM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=winflop link=topic=13023.msg132570#msg132570 date=1443968786]
[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=13023.msg132336#msg132336 date=1443922794]
The key thing Utah has that Low APR U doesn't is offensive balance.
BC
Well there's that - and that thing called DEFENSE
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While Utah has a better defense than c.a.l., some of the comments on Utah's defense seem to be more from last year than this.
Currently, Utah ranks #8 in the Pac 12 in total defense yds/play, #5 in yds/game, #11 in tackles for loss/game (their signature last year), #4 in S&P+ (Football Outsiders).
Utah's development is a little like Stanford's - a defense that doesn't seem quite as good as last year and an offense that seems better. However, it's not THAT much better (#9 in conference in yds/play, #10 yds/game, #7 in S&P+. This combination is a reason I'm not totally sold on the Utes yet despite their impressive wins over Oregon and Michigan.
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I actually think Utah is ripe for Ca.l to beat them. Their defense and offense aren't as great as people are giving them credit for being. They are going to be so full of themselves this week, totally distracted, and think they have this one in the bag. Ca.l played pretty poorly the last two weeks, put some bad stuff on video, but they did play very well at Texas. Before you dismiss the Texas win because it was 45-44 to a bad Texas team, consider this...
1. Ca.l lost Safety Demariay Drew in the first half of that game. He is the best play making Safety they have; fast, physical, and made the two big interceptions that allowed them to beat UW and WSU. His replacement was small, slow, and a terrible tackler. Heard ran by him multiple times in the second half.
2. Ca.l was the first team to play Heard as a starting QB. They weren't ready for what he can do. Oklahoma State and TCU benefitted from seeing
3. When Ca.l goes fast, they are tough to stop. They tried to run the ball when Texas was ready for it when up 21. Went into "protect the lead" mode. Had they not done this, they beat Texas by 2 TDs+.Â
Utah hasn't faced a QB and passing attack like Ca.l has. Michigan and Oregon are not very sophisticated passing teams and their QBs are mediocre. Yes, Utah has a strong DL and can create pressure, but Goff throws better under pressure than any QB I've ever seen. Ca.l's ability to pressure QBs (leads Pac-12 with 18 sacks), and force turnovers makes their defense dangerous.
The one area Utah has a clear advantage over Ca.l is Special Teams, specifically kicking and punting. I have a bad feeling Ca.l will lose this game by missing a 42 yard FG at the final gun or something like that.