(03-09-2016, 01:58 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:[quote author=Boston Card link=topic=14712.msg158188#msg158188 date=1457556013]
[quote author=stupac2 link=topic=14712.msg158173#msg158173 date=1457547400]
$11M is absolutely enough to retire on, unless you want to lead a stupidly extravagent lifestyle. My wife and I have calculated it and our number, including our house in the crazy-expensive Bay Area, is around $2.5M. Assuming you get ~5% annual real returns (which isn't insane), $11M is giving you over half a million dollars a year. You can't live on that? I sure could!
Granted, he's probably got less than that, but say he has $5M in the bank, that's still ~$250k a year! My wife and I make a bit over half that. It's plenty to live on.
Remember 5% returns have to be above inflation, or you start eating into your principle. These days, that a minimal concern, with inflation running at about 1%, but it won't be that low forever. And returns aren't what they used to be, what with negative interest rates being all the rage.
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But of course this is a contradictory claim. If inflation goes up, interest rates will go up and returns will too.
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Yes and no. Taking the S&P 500, nominal returns of course do go up as inflation increases. Real returns, however, tend to do best when there is a moderate amount of inflation (2 - 3%). Returns tend to be lower when inflation is higher because of the expectation that interest rates will rise to take on inflation. And when inflation is very low, returns tend to be low because it is usually a sign that the economy is sputtering.
The correlation between bonds and inflation is much stronger, of course, since bond yields reflect inflation expectations going forward.
BC