[BostonCard]

As best I can tell from people who have crunched the data, it is difficult to differentiate an ability to "win close games" from being lucky.  The probability of winning 8/10 "close games" based on the binomial distribution, which assumes that each "close win" is no different than a coin flip, is .054.  Thus, if all Pac-12 teams played 10 close games every year, you would expect on average one to win at least 8 of them every other year.

Generally the mark of excellent teams is winning most games decisively, so it minimizes the potential for an unlucky bounce to make a "close win" into a "close loss".

BC

[BostonCard]

As best I can tell from people who have crunched the data, it is difficult to differentiate an ability to "win close games" from being lucky.  The probability of winning 8/10 "close games" based on the binomial distribution, which assumes that each "close win" is no different than a coin flip, is .054.  Thus, if all Pac-12 teams played 10 close games every year, you would expect on average one to win at least 8 of them every other year.

Generally the mark of excellent teams is winning most games decisively, so it minimizes the potential for an unlucky bounce to make a "close win" into a "close loss".

BC

[fullmetal]

Generally the mark of excellent teams is winning most games decisively, so it minimizes the potential for an unlucky bounce to make a "close win" into a "close loss".

And by decisively, we mean by points on the scoreboard, not just in time of possession  ::)

[fullmetal]

Generally the mark of excellent teams is winning most games decisively, so it minimizes the potential for an unlucky bounce to make a "close win" into a "close loss".

And by decisively, we mean by points on the scoreboard, not just in time of possession  ::)

[dabigv13]

Wondo really earning his spot here  ::)

[dabigv13]

Wondo really earning his spot here  ::)

[washingtonismoney]

Wondo really earning his spot here  ::)

U.S. could really use some speed and aggression to push back the Argentine backline.

One wonders where that could come from. Hmmmmmmmmm.......

[washingtonismoney]

Wondo really earning his spot here  ::)

U.S. could really use some speed and aggression to push back the Argentine backline.

One wonders where that could come from. Hmmmmmmmmm.......

[dabigv13]

Guzan and Dempsey lucky to not be booked let alone shown red.

Morris wouldn't really make a difference here, Argentina playing a different game altogether. Still clearly would be an upgrade over Wondo. I think garvin would be an upgrade over Wondo, at least he would have some cutting remarks for the Argentina back line.

[dabigv13]

Guzan and Dempsey lucky to not be booked let alone shown red.

Morris wouldn't really make a difference here, Argentina playing a different game altogether. Still clearly would be an upgrade over Wondo. I think garvin would be an upgrade over Wondo, at least he would have some cutting remarks for the Argentina back line.

[washingtonismoney]

Guzan and Dempsey lucky to not be booked let alone shown red.

Morris wouldn't really make a difference here, Argentina playing a different game altogether. Still clearly would be an upgrade over Wondo. I think garvin would be an upgrade over Wondo, at least he would have some cutting remarks for the Argentina back line.

Yeah, I think the U.S. has been sent out in a really dismally ill-conceived lineup. So hard of me to disentangle that from Argentina's effectiveness. Anyone who's followed the team knows:

1) Beckerman has lost a step and is too slow for this level now
2) Wondo has always sucked at the international level
3) Zardes is better as a forward than a winger
4) Johnson better as a winger than a fullback

Could list more, but the roster was screwed up and the lineup screwed up even more as a consequence. A perfectly set out lineup is still an underdog, but who knows.

[washingtonismoney]

Guzan and Dempsey lucky to not be booked let alone shown red.

Morris wouldn't really make a difference here, Argentina playing a different game altogether. Still clearly would be an upgrade over Wondo. I think garvin would be an upgrade over Wondo, at least he would have some cutting remarks for the Argentina back line.

Yeah, I think the U.S. has been sent out in a really dismally ill-conceived lineup. So hard of me to disentangle that from Argentina's effectiveness. Anyone who's followed the team knows:

1) Beckerman has lost a step and is too slow for this level now
2) Wondo has always sucked at the international level
3) Zardes is better as a forward than a winger
4) Johnson better as a winger than a fullback

Could list more, but the roster was screwed up and the lineup screwed up even more as a consequence. A perfectly set out lineup is still an underdog, but who knows.

[FarmBoy]

http://www.starsandstripesfc.com/2016/6/...-argentina

[FarmBoy]

http://www.starsandstripesfc.com/2016/6/...-argentina

[dabigv13]

No shame in losing to a team with perhaps the best player ever. The problem is that the Argentinian 4th choice squad would beat this team, Morris or no.

USMNT doesn't have the players. Until 1) MLS pumps in enough money to bring over lots of international players in their prime or 2) more young US players develop in top European leagues, they won't have the players to win these sorts of games.

[dabigv13]

No shame in losing to a team with perhaps the best player ever. The problem is that the Argentinian 4th choice squad would beat this team, Morris or no.

USMNT doesn't have the players. Until 1) MLS pumps in enough money to bring over lots of international players in their prime or 2) more young US players develop in top European leagues, they won't have the players to win these sorts of games.

[North Woods]

Morris wouldn't have changed the outcome. Maybe the score looks slightly better because he doesn't give the ball away and then pull Messi down at the top of the box and/or because Argentina might have thought occasionally about his speed. Still, I would have thought having him on the roster would have been good for his development, if only by being a part of a major tournament, and a better bet than having Wondo who isn't going to contribute much to the future of the team.

Overall the team just looked timid and disorganized. No leadership on the field to calm everyone down. The few times we touched the ball, we looked rushed in getting rid of it and thus gave the ball away too easily or passed the ball backwards. 0 shots and 32% of possession... Yeesh.

[North Woods]

Morris wouldn't have changed the outcome. Maybe the score looks slightly better because he doesn't give the ball away and then pull Messi down at the top of the box and/or because Argentina might have thought occasionally about his speed. Still, I would have thought having him on the roster would have been good for his development, if only by being a part of a major tournament, and a better bet than having Wondo who isn't going to contribute much to the future of the team.

Overall the team just looked timid and disorganized. No leadership on the field to calm everyone down. The few times we touched the ball, we looked rushed in getting rid of it and thus gave the ball away too easily or passed the ball backwards. 0 shots and 32% of possession... Yeesh.

[washingtonismoney]

Morris wouldn't have changed the outcome. Maybe the score looks slightly better because he doesn't give the ball away and then pull Messi down at the top of the box and/or because Argentina might have thought occasionally about his speed. Still, I would have thought having him on the roster would have been good for his development, if only by being a part of a major tournament, and a better bet than having Wondo who isn't going to contribute much to the future of the team.

Overall the team just looked timid and disorganized. No leadership on the field to calm everyone down. The few times we touched the ball, we looked rushed in getting rid of it and thus gave the ball away too easily or passed the ball backwards. 0 shots and 32% of possession... Yeesh.

Yeah, I agree -- Morris on his own wouldn't be that much of a difference. And, to be honest, he wouldn't be on my top-five list of suggested changes. Still, it's symbolic of the muddled thinking on Klinsmann's part.

[washingtonismoney]

Morris wouldn't have changed the outcome. Maybe the score looks slightly better because he doesn't give the ball away and then pull Messi down at the top of the box and/or because Argentina might have thought occasionally about his speed. Still, I would have thought having him on the roster would have been good for his development, if only by being a part of a major tournament, and a better bet than having Wondo who isn't going to contribute much to the future of the team.

Overall the team just looked timid and disorganized. No leadership on the field to calm everyone down. The few times we touched the ball, we looked rushed in getting rid of it and thus gave the ball away too easily or passed the ball backwards. 0 shots and 32% of possession... Yeesh.

Yeah, I agree -- Morris on his own wouldn't be that much of a difference. And, to be honest, he wouldn't be on my top-five list of suggested changes. Still, it's symbolic of the muddled thinking on Klinsmann's part.

[zedcom]

Not a student of the game but tuned in last night....thought Bradley seemed more a liability than an asset. Messi...wow!

[zedcom]

Not a student of the game but tuned in last night....thought Bradley seemed more a liability than an asset. Messi...wow!

[OutsiderFan]

I don't know what it is, but International soccer just really appeals to me.  I can watch some of the Premier League games, but the UEFA Champions League Final didn't interest me as much as Spain-Croatia yesterday in pool play of Euro 2106.  So given we have Copa America and Euro going on now, it makes me think about U.S. Soccer when I ordinarily wouldn't.

Watching Argentina toy with the U.S. team, and how dominant Messi is, it got me wondering if the U.S. could ever have such a talent.  My immediate thinking was that though more kids play soccer than any other sport, the best athletes are playing football and basketball.  I wondered what if guys like Christian McCaffrey or Demetris Robertson were playing soccer, would they develop into guys with amazing touch and ball skills like permeate Argentina?  If Germany can field an elite international team, there is no way the United States shouldn't be able to field one with the athletes the U.S. produces.

Given all the health concerns over football in the U.S. and the insane money the top players make, when might we see more of the elite 6-4 and under athletes that choose football over soccer start deciding to play soccer over football?  Jordan Morris may be a great soccer player, but is he a better athlete than CMac?

[OutsiderFan]

I don't know what it is, but International soccer just really appeals to me.  I can watch some of the Premier League games, but the UEFA Champions League Final didn't interest me as much as Spain-Croatia yesterday in pool play of Euro 2106.  So given we have Copa America and Euro going on now, it makes me think about U.S. Soccer when I ordinarily wouldn't.

Watching Argentina toy with the U.S. team, and how dominant Messi is, it got me wondering if the U.S. could ever have such a talent.  My immediate thinking was that though more kids play soccer than any other sport, the best athletes are playing football and basketball.  I wondered what if guys like Christian McCaffrey or Demetris Robertson were playing soccer, would they develop into guys with amazing touch and ball skills like permeate Argentina?  If Germany can field an elite international team, there is no way the United States shouldn't be able to field one with the athletes the U.S. produces.

Given all the health concerns over football in the U.S. and the insane money the top players make, when might we see more of the elite 6-4 and under athletes that choose football over soccer start deciding to play soccer over football?  Jordan Morris may be a great soccer player, but is he a better athlete than CMac?

[stupac2]

Given all the health concerns over football in the U.S. and the insane money the top players make, when might we see more of the elite 6-4 and under athletes that choose football over soccer start deciding to play soccer over football?  Jordan Morris may be a great soccer player, but is he a better athlete than CMac?

That's been the hypothesis for a while now, probably decades but I haven't been paying attention. I'll believe it when I see it. After all, you can make a lot of money in baseball too, and it's not as hard on the body, but the best athletes are almost invariably football players. The game has a hold on the American psyche that will be hard to overcome.

[stupac2]

Given all the health concerns over football in the U.S. and the insane money the top players make, when might we see more of the elite 6-4 and under athletes that choose football over soccer start deciding to play soccer over football?  Jordan Morris may be a great soccer player, but is he a better athlete than CMac?

That's been the hypothesis for a while now, probably decades but I haven't been paying attention. I'll believe it when I see it. After all, you can make a lot of money in baseball too, and it's not as hard on the body, but the best athletes are almost invariably football players. The game has a hold on the American psyche that will be hard to overcome.

[washingtonismoney]

"Best athletes" is a bit of a cliche by this point -- and unfortunately not useful for the U.S., who are already regarded as extremely good athletes on the world stage.* While I suppose there's additional benefit to getting even more athletic, it's probably not the most obvious place to improve. Instead, the U.S. should be focusing on improving the skill and soccer IQ of players rather than getting better run-jump-strength guys.** That is, it should be finding and building players like Steph Curry (who thrive because of skill and creativity) rather than the best decathletes ever.

Anyway the discussions are a bit inappropriate. Long-time followers of the U.S. know that the talent has never been better. I repeat this a lot but I feel I have to! It's just true. I was chatting with a friend who's also a close follower of the team, and we both were expressing wonderment that the team has, like, fifty viable left back options -- while in 2009-13 they had to scrounge around some real trash. The team looks bad because a very dim coach put together a bad roster and selected the worst possible options of an already-bad roster.

So the U.S. development system could stand to get better, but if current trends hold things will work out. Maybe very slowly, but they will.

* (the typical European coach comment about a U.S. player is that he tries extremely hard, runs extremely far, is athletic, a good team player ... but is not a game-breaker.)

** (the other problem is that most of the "best athletes" in other sports aren't great fits for soccer. LeBron James would make a bad soccer player, but is, of course, a fantastic athlete. The guys who should be playing soccer but aren't look like Nate Robinson or Isaiah Thomas -- the Celtics guard, not the retired Pistons great -- not Demetris Robertson.)

[washingtonismoney]

"Best athletes" is a bit of a cliche by this point -- and unfortunately not useful for the U.S., who are already regarded as extremely good athletes on the world stage.* While I suppose there's additional benefit to getting even more athletic, it's probably not the most obvious place to improve. Instead, the U.S. should be focusing on improving the skill and soccer IQ of players rather than getting better run-jump-strength guys.** That is, it should be finding and building players like Steph Curry (who thrive because of skill and creativity) rather than the best decathletes ever.

Anyway the discussions are a bit inappropriate. Long-time followers of the U.S. know that the talent has never been better. I repeat this a lot but I feel I have to! It's just true. I was chatting with a friend who's also a close follower of the team, and we both were expressing wonderment that the team has, like, fifty viable left back options -- while in 2009-13 they had to scrounge around some real trash. The team looks bad because a very dim coach put together a bad roster and selected the worst possible options of an already-bad roster.

So the U.S. development system could stand to get better, but if current trends hold things will work out. Maybe very slowly, but they will.

* (the typical European coach comment about a U.S. player is that he tries extremely hard, runs extremely far, is athletic, a good team player ... but is not a game-breaker.)

** (the other problem is that most of the "best athletes" in other sports aren't great fits for soccer. LeBron James would make a bad soccer player, but is, of course, a fantastic athlete. The guys who should be playing soccer but aren't look like Nate Robinson or Isaiah Thomas -- the Celtics guard, not the retired Pistons great -- not Demetris Robertson.)

[slide]

** (the other problem is that most of the "best athletes" in other sports aren't great fits for soccer. LeBron James would make a bad soccer player, but is, of course, a fantastic athlete.

on the other hand, as a goalie, LeBron may have prevented the Messi goal.  he is 4" taller than Guzan, probably has an 8" reach advantage and a vert that is close to 20" better.  I suspect his reaction time is a bit better too.

agree overall on skill versus q&a.  first touches are telling.  in MLS, first touches often are uncontrolled ricochets; Premier League is the other end of the spectrum.

[slide]

** (the other problem is that most of the "best athletes" in other sports aren't great fits for soccer. LeBron James would make a bad soccer player, but is, of course, a fantastic athlete.

on the other hand, as a goalie, LeBron may have prevented the Messi goal.  he is 4" taller than Guzan, probably has an 8" reach advantage and a vert that is close to 20" better.  I suspect his reaction time is a bit better too.

agree overall on skill versus q&a.  first touches are telling.  in MLS, first touches often are uncontrolled ricochets; Premier League is the other end of the spectrum.

[washingtonismoney]

agree overall on skill versus q&a.  first touches are telling.  in MLS, first touches often are uncontrolled ricochets; Premier League is the other end of the spectrum.

Yeah. To be fair, I wonder whether American coaches are too influenced by national archetypes of what makes a good athlete -- a lot of "good athlete" American players don't necessarily have soccer-specific athleticism. (e.g. a player like Zardes is fast, but because he's a long-strider, it takes him too long to get up to speed. Messi, on the other hand, is quicker than fast -- and that's most important in soccer. Coaches, I think, could stand to focus more on change of direction, acceleration, and balance rather than outright top speed or height.)

[washingtonismoney]

agree overall on skill versus q&a.  first touches are telling.  in MLS, first touches often are uncontrolled ricochets; Premier League is the other end of the spectrum.

Yeah. To be fair, I wonder whether American coaches are too influenced by national archetypes of what makes a good athlete -- a lot of "good athlete" American players don't necessarily have soccer-specific athleticism. (e.g. a player like Zardes is fast, but because he's a long-strider, it takes him too long to get up to speed. Messi, on the other hand, is quicker than fast -- and that's most important in soccer. Coaches, I think, could stand to focus more on change of direction, acceleration, and balance rather than outright top speed or height.)

[stupac2]

Yeah. To be fair, I wonder whether American coaches are too influenced by national archetypes of what makes a good athlete -- a lot of "good athlete" American players don't necessarily have soccer-specific athleticism. (e.g. a player like Zardes is fast, but because he's a long-strider, it takes him too long to get up to speed. Messi, on the other hand, is quicker than fast -- and that's most important in soccer. Coaches, I think, could stand to focus more on change of direction, acceleration, and balance rather than outright top speed or height.)

Isn't this true in other sports as well? The story in baseball is extremely well known, and it seems to be quite true in football (I don't know enough about basketball or hockey to know if there are similar myopias there too). Or are you saying that coaches in the US are particularly bad about this compared to their peers abroad? That seems to open a large arbitrage advantage to me.

Also, didn't Klingsman win a world cup in Germany? Has he gone crazy with old age or something? At some point he was effective, right?

[stupac2]

Yeah. To be fair, I wonder whether American coaches are too influenced by national archetypes of what makes a good athlete -- a lot of "good athlete" American players don't necessarily have soccer-specific athleticism. (e.g. a player like Zardes is fast, but because he's a long-strider, it takes him too long to get up to speed. Messi, on the other hand, is quicker than fast -- and that's most important in soccer. Coaches, I think, could stand to focus more on change of direction, acceleration, and balance rather than outright top speed or height.)

Isn't this true in other sports as well? The story in baseball is extremely well known, and it seems to be quite true in football (I don't know enough about basketball or hockey to know if there are similar myopias there too). Or are you saying that coaches in the US are particularly bad about this compared to their peers abroad? That seems to open a large arbitrage advantage to me.

Also, didn't Klingsman win a world cup in Germany? Has he gone crazy with old age or something? At some point he was effective, right?

[dabigv13]

He coached them to a semifinal loss to Italy in 2006, and won as a player in 1990. But different sorts of teams require different sorts of coaches.

I think the idea that other non-soccer sports steals the best athletes is pretty rubbish as well, though the cultural primacy of football and basketball may hurt in a sense.

If you go to a lot of countries the sport people play at the beach, at school recess, after work is soccer. The sport people talk about at work, at the bars, over dinner, is soccer. When you grow up in that environment, I think you have a higher chance of getting youngsters with ball skills and vision.

Andrea Pirlo is not a world class athlete, but the USMNT has never had a player who makes the passes he'd make. Ditto for any number of passes Argentina made last night.

[dabigv13]

He coached them to a semifinal loss to Italy in 2006, and won as a player in 1990. But different sorts of teams require different sorts of coaches.

I think the idea that other non-soccer sports steals the best athletes is pretty rubbish as well, though the cultural primacy of football and basketball may hurt in a sense.

If you go to a lot of countries the sport people play at the beach, at school recess, after work is soccer. The sport people talk about at work, at the bars, over dinner, is soccer. When you grow up in that environment, I think you have a higher chance of getting youngsters with ball skills and vision.

Andrea Pirlo is not a world class athlete, but the USMNT has never had a player who makes the passes he'd make. Ditto for any number of passes Argentina made last night.

[fullmetal]

How much time does ARG's team spend training together?  Their chemistry was amazing.  I don't know if the USA players have that kind of familiarity with each other.  It's almost a basketball-level of fluidity.

[fullmetal]

How much time does ARG's team spend training together?  Their chemistry was amazing.  I don't know if the USA players have that kind of familiarity with each other.  It's almost a basketball-level of fluidity.

[washingtonismoney]

Isn't this true in other sports as well? The story in baseball is extremely well known, and it seems to be quite true in football (I don't know enough about basketball or hockey to know if there are similar myopias there too). Or are you saying that coaches in the US are particularly bad about this compared to their peers abroad? That seems to open a large arbitrage advantage to me.

Also, didn't Klingsman win a world cup in Germany? Has he gone crazy with old age or something? At some point he was effective, right?

Not sure what you mean. I suspect that American coaches are too prone to taking players who fit other sports' athletic archetypes rather than soccer's; I attribute that (speculatively) to a culture that's mostly saturated by other sports. The notion that Messi is actually a pretty good athlete requires some reprogramming, which I suspect will...mostly take time. Soccer isn't a perfect market so arbitrage will take some time to reorient.

As dabigv says Klinsmann reached the seminfinals in 2006 -- however, the team was playing in Germany, and it had significant home-field advantage. And, critically, he had the help of the current German coach, Joachim Low, as an assistant. The consensus is that Low did most of the nitty-gritty work and planning; Klinsmann did the motivation and vision stuff. Since then Klinsmann's never had a similarly well-regarded assistant -- and he failed as coach of Bayern Munich,* and then failed as the president of MLS team Toronto FC.**

* (failing at Bayern Munich is pretty impressive -- they've won half of all possible Bundesliga titles. He also discarded German national team starter Mats Hummels, who was coming up through the team's academy. Just this summer, it cost Munich 35 million euro to get them back. He tried to discard national team starter Thomas Mueller as well. Phillip Lahm, the Bayern captain, is incredibly scathing re: Klinsmann.)

** (failing as Toronto president is also seriously impressive. The team has invested oodles and oodles of cash -- perhaps the second-highest spenders in all of MLS. He hired a coach named Aron Winter; a Financial Times journalist who's close to Ajax FC, the team where Winter served as youth coach, reported that everyone was confused why Winter would interest a team as head coach.

Basically there's no evidence Klinsmann has done anything terribly effectively in his various sojourns as executive or coach.)

[washingtonismoney]

Isn't this true in other sports as well? The story in baseball is extremely well known, and it seems to be quite true in football (I don't know enough about basketball or hockey to know if there are similar myopias there too). Or are you saying that coaches in the US are particularly bad about this compared to their peers abroad? That seems to open a large arbitrage advantage to me.

Also, didn't Klingsman win a world cup in Germany? Has he gone crazy with old age or something? At some point he was effective, right?

Not sure what you mean. I suspect that American coaches are too prone to taking players who fit other sports' athletic archetypes rather than soccer's; I attribute that (speculatively) to a culture that's mostly saturated by other sports. The notion that Messi is actually a pretty good athlete requires some reprogramming, which I suspect will...mostly take time. Soccer isn't a perfect market so arbitrage will take some time to reorient.

As dabigv says Klinsmann reached the seminfinals in 2006 -- however, the team was playing in Germany, and it had significant home-field advantage. And, critically, he had the help of the current German coach, Joachim Low, as an assistant. The consensus is that Low did most of the nitty-gritty work and planning; Klinsmann did the motivation and vision stuff. Since then Klinsmann's never had a similarly well-regarded assistant -- and he failed as coach of Bayern Munich,* and then failed as the president of MLS team Toronto FC.**

* (failing at Bayern Munich is pretty impressive -- they've won half of all possible Bundesliga titles. He also discarded German national team starter Mats Hummels, who was coming up through the team's academy. Just this summer, it cost Munich 35 million euro to get them back. He tried to discard national team starter Thomas Mueller as well. Phillip Lahm, the Bayern captain, is incredibly scathing re: Klinsmann.)

** (failing as Toronto president is also seriously impressive. The team has invested oodles and oodles of cash -- perhaps the second-highest spenders in all of MLS. He hired a coach named Aron Winter; a Financial Times journalist who's close to Ajax FC, the team where Winter served as youth coach, reported that everyone was confused why Winter would interest a team as head coach.

Basically there's no evidence Klinsmann has done anything terribly effectively in his various sojourns as executive or coach.)