[Mauser]

[quote author=Mauser link=topic=15489.msg169377#msg169377 date=1472820467]
So 3 things

He wasn't hurt on the play. He finished the game and jogged off the field after the play.

Second it didn't effect the outcome of the game. Had he received the call and scored KSU would have still won the game by 3. Instead they won by 10.

Third it was 18 giving a very    special    hug years ago. Some times in life you should move on. This is one of those times

That he wasn't hurt on the play is nothing but blind luck.  Even K-State fans have to admit that the penalty should have been called.  Yet you insist it's the best no call ever.

It likely would not have affected the outcome of the game, but neither of us know that.  It would have extended Nebraska's drive and may have affected the outcome.  Neither of us will ever know.

Finally, it may have been 18 years ago, but we've heard stories all week of K-State stopping    Trophy candidates and upsetting more highly ranked teams.  Those games were all played when many of the players taking the field tomorrow weren't even born yet.  So it's interesting that I should let this go, when you and other K-State fans cling to the past in an effort to justify your chances to stay in the game this evening.

Anyway, as we like to say on The Cardboard, here's to a hard fought injury free game tonight.
[/quote]


No we don't have to admit anything. You need to get over your fake outrage over a game you never watched from 18 years ago.

[Mauser]

[quote author=Mauser link=topic=15489.msg169377#msg169377 date=1472820467]
So 3 things

He wasn't hurt on the play. He finished the game and jogged off the field after the play.

Second it didn't effect the outcome of the game. Had he received the call and scored KSU would have still won the game by 3. Instead they won by 10.

Third it was 18 giving a very    special    hug years ago. Some times in life you should move on. This is one of those times

That he wasn't hurt on the play is nothing but blind luck.  Even K-State fans have to admit that the penalty should have been called.  Yet you insist it's the best no call ever.

It likely would not have affected the outcome of the game, but neither of us know that.  It would have extended Nebraska's drive and may have affected the outcome.  Neither of us will ever know.

Finally, it may have been 18 years ago, but we've heard stories all week of K-State stopping    Trophy candidates and upsetting more highly ranked teams.  Those games were all played when many of the players taking the field tomorrow weren't even born yet.  So it's interesting that I should let this go, when you and other K-State fans cling to the past in an effort to justify your chances to stay in the game this evening.

Anyway, as we like to say on The Cardboard, here's to a hard fought injury free game tonight.
[/quote]


No we don't have to admit anything. You need to get over your fake outrage over a game you never watched from 18 years ago.

[Leftcoast]

Stanford 31 Bleeding Kansas 16! 

Of course the bleeding has nothing to do with the events of the 1850s and only comes from superficial easily healed injuries! Hopefully KSU is back and ready to knock the stuffing out of the Big 12 pretenders starting with Oklahoma in mid October and continuing through their end of season game with TCU.

[Leftcoast]

Stanford 31 Bleeding Kansas 16! 

Of course the bleeding has nothing to do with the events of the 1850s and only comes from superficial easily healed injuries! Hopefully KSU is back and ready to knock the stuffing out of the Big 12 pretenders starting with Oklahoma in mid October and continuing through their end of season game with TCU.

[Papa John]

You bring up Bleeding Kansas, even in jest, you risk the wrath of Kathy.

[Papa John]

You bring up Bleeding Kansas, even in jest, you risk the wrath of Kathy.

[Hank 91]

Stanford 34, Kansas State 16

[Hank 91]

Stanford 34, Kansas State 16

[CTcard]

Guess it's time to pony up.

Home of the world's largest linear accelerator = 20
Home of the world's largest ball of twine = 10


We find out we do have a defense again, though this test may not be definitive.
We find out we have an offense that again struggles without an experienced QB and OL.

And two weeks later everything is different.

[CTcard]

Guess it's time to pony up.

Home of the world's largest linear accelerator = 20
Home of the world's largest ball of twine = 10


We find out we do have a defense again, though this test may not be definitive.
We find out we have an offense that again struggles without an experienced QB and OL.

And two weeks later everything is different.

[CTcard]

We almost always beat the spread in football

I also went back to the 2009, which for Stanford fans is relevant because it was the start of our current run of strength. It looks like overall we both have a good record ATS since that time:
Stanford 60-33-1 64.5% (#2)
Kansas St 53-35-1 60.2% (#4)

Looks like we both have something in common when it comes to being underestimated by bettors.

From another source, this time an ESPN article on best bets.

• Best ATS records over last 5 years:

1. Georgia Southern 20-8
2. Stanford 44-24
3. Houston 42-23-1
4. Baylor 40-23-1
5. Arkansas State 40-24-1

• Top 5 teams ATS after a straight-up loss in last five seasons:

1. Louisville 12-4
2. Stanford 12-3
3. Missouri 16-6
4. Kansas State 12-5
5. Michigan 14-6

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/174...ll-playoff

[CTcard]

We almost always beat the spread in football

I also went back to the 2009, which for Stanford fans is relevant because it was the start of our current run of strength. It looks like overall we both have a good record ATS since that time:
Stanford 60-33-1 64.5% (#2)
Kansas St 53-35-1 60.2% (#4)

Looks like we both have something in common when it comes to being underestimated by bettors.

From another source, this time an ESPN article on best bets.

• Best ATS records over last 5 years:

1. Georgia Southern 20-8
2. Stanford 44-24
3. Houston 42-23-1
4. Baylor 40-23-1
5. Arkansas State 40-24-1

• Top 5 teams ATS after a straight-up loss in last five seasons:

1. Louisville 12-4
2. Stanford 12-3
3. Missouri 16-6
4. Kansas State 12-5
5. Michigan 14-6

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/174...ll-playoff

[HisKneeWasDown]

* This is a bit new this year, and means that someone who picks the correct team, but totally messes up the score (for example, guessing 52-30 when the score ends up being 7-3) still ranks higher than someone who picks the wrong team but is close on the score (for example, guessing 7-10).  To figure out how off someone is from the true score, I calculate the difference between the predicted and actual score spreads (so, the aforementioned 52-30 results in a predicted differential of 22 versus an actual differential of 4, for a difference of 18).  To that, I add the difference between the predicted and actual mean score (so 52-30 results in a mean score of 41 versus an actual mean of 5, for a difference of 36).  That results in a difference in spread plus difference in means of 54.

I don't get it. But I trust you :-)

Stanford 17-10

[HisKneeWasDown]

* This is a bit new this year, and means that someone who picks the correct team, but totally messes up the score (for example, guessing 52-30 when the score ends up being 7-3) still ranks higher than someone who picks the wrong team but is close on the score (for example, guessing 7-10).  To figure out how off someone is from the true score, I calculate the difference between the predicted and actual score spreads (so, the aforementioned 52-30 results in a predicted differential of 22 versus an actual differential of 4, for a difference of 18).  To that, I add the difference between the predicted and actual mean score (so 52-30 results in a mean score of 41 versus an actual mean of 5, for a difference of 36).  That results in a difference in spread plus difference in means of 54.

I don't get it. But I trust you :-)

Stanford 17-10

[washingtonismoney]

Interesting tidbit from the link CTCard noted: Found it interesting that (apparently) the line has shifted from (IIRC) pick-'em to favoring Stanford by 3 against N.D. Not sure if the UW line has shifted, but being favored by 4 is nice.

[washingtonismoney]

Interesting tidbit from the link CTCard noted: Found it interesting that (apparently) the line has shifted from (IIRC) pick-'em to favoring Stanford by 3 against N.D. Not sure if the UW line has shifted, but being favored by 4 is nice.

[BigEasyCard]

Here's hoping that I don't personally experience regression to the mean this season.

Stanford Cardinal 34
Kansas State Wildcats 17

Defense scores a touchdown.  Jay Tyler shows why some of us have been touting him.  Keller Chryst makes the most of his limited time on the field.

And now it's off to The Blind Pelican for happy hour with some pregame oysters and Abita Amber beer.

Geaux Cardinal!

[BigEasyCard]

Here's hoping that I don't personally experience regression to the mean this season.

Stanford Cardinal 34
Kansas State Wildcats 17

Defense scores a touchdown.  Jay Tyler shows why some of us have been touting him.  Keller Chryst makes the most of his limited time on the field.

And now it's off to The Blind Pelican for happy hour with some pregame oysters and Abita Amber beer.

Geaux Cardinal!

[DC 86]

Stanford 30
Kansas State 17

[DC 86]

Stanford 30
Kansas State 17

[BostonCard]

Member	Stanford	Kansas State	Difference	Absolute Error	Spread + Mean error	Correct winner	Points	Bonus	Final tally
MSmith23	27	14	13	2	1	TRUE	80	0	80
thunder_chik	27	13	14	1	1.5	TRUE	79	0	79
standfan	27	13	14	1	1.5	TRUE	79	0	79
Mauser	28	14	14	3	2.5	TRUE	77	0	77
Brannerite	28	14	14	3	2.5	TRUE	77	0	77
CPSteeple	24	13	11	2	3	TRUE	75	0	75
Feldman	24	13	11	2	3	TRUE	75	0	75
ExtraPoint	24	13	11	2	3	TRUE	75	0	75
eric	24	10	14	5	3.5	TRUE	72	0	72
81alum	24	14	10	3	3.5	TRUE	72	0	72
washingtonismoney	30	17	13	8	4	TRUE	70	0	70
DC 86	30	17	13	8	4	TRUE	70	0	70
fullmetal	23	9	14	7	4.5	TRUE	68	0	68
SamAtoms1980	23	13	10	3	4.5	TRUE	68	0	68
TreesAndBirds	27	10	17	4	5	TRUE	66	0	66
Boston Card	28	10	18	5	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
SeattleTree	31	17	14	9	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
JJJ	31	17	14	9	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
See Loon	27	17	10	5	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
JPri	27	17	10	5	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
cardfan77	31	17	14	9	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
Row80Critic	31	17	14	9	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
needle	27	17	10	5	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
martyup	31	17	14	9	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
leftcoast	31	16	15	8	6	TRUE	56	0	56
Publius	32	18	14	11	6.5	TRUE	55	0	55
paloalto	24	17	7	6	7	TRUE	54	0	54
donkey687	24	17	7	6	7	TRUE	54	0	54
Vegas Line	32	17	15	10	7	TRUE	54	0	54
RobinsonsHeave	32	17	15	10	7	TRUE	54	0	54
CompSci87	30	10	20	7	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
Stymie	31	13	18	5	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
Rennaissance Man	31	13	18	5	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
hulburt88	31	13	18	5	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
vataha	31	13	18	5	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
CTcard	20	10	10	9	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
FarmBoy	31	20	11	12	8	TRUE	44	0	44
shinesengumi	31	20	11	12	8	TRUE	44	0	44

[BostonCard]

Member	Stanford	Kansas State	Difference	Absolute Error	Spread + Mean error	Correct winner	Points	Bonus	Final tally
MSmith23	27	14	13	2	1	TRUE	80	0	80
thunder_chik	27	13	14	1	1.5	TRUE	79	0	79
standfan	27	13	14	1	1.5	TRUE	79	0	79
Mauser	28	14	14	3	2.5	TRUE	77	0	77
Brannerite	28	14	14	3	2.5	TRUE	77	0	77
CPSteeple	24	13	11	2	3	TRUE	75	0	75
Feldman	24	13	11	2	3	TRUE	75	0	75
ExtraPoint	24	13	11	2	3	TRUE	75	0	75
eric	24	10	14	5	3.5	TRUE	72	0	72
81alum	24	14	10	3	3.5	TRUE	72	0	72
washingtonismoney	30	17	13	8	4	TRUE	70	0	70
DC 86	30	17	13	8	4	TRUE	70	0	70
fullmetal	23	9	14	7	4.5	TRUE	68	0	68
SamAtoms1980	23	13	10	3	4.5	TRUE	68	0	68
TreesAndBirds	27	10	17	4	5	TRUE	66	0	66
Boston Card	28	10	18	5	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
SeattleTree	31	17	14	9	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
JJJ	31	17	14	9	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
See Loon	27	17	10	5	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
JPri	27	17	10	5	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
cardfan77	31	17	14	9	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
Row80Critic	31	17	14	9	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
needle	27	17	10	5	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
martyup	31	17	14	9	5.5	TRUE	65	0	65
leftcoast	31	16	15	8	6	TRUE	56	0	56
Publius	32	18	14	11	6.5	TRUE	55	0	55
paloalto	24	17	7	6	7	TRUE	54	0	54
donkey687	24	17	7	6	7	TRUE	54	0	54
Vegas Line	32	17	15	10	7	TRUE	54	0	54
RobinsonsHeave	32	17	15	10	7	TRUE	54	0	54
CompSci87	30	10	20	7	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
Stymie	31	13	18	5	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
Rennaissance Man	31	13	18	5	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
hulburt88	31	13	18	5	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
vataha	31	13	18	5	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
CTcard	20	10	10	9	7.5	TRUE	50	0	50
FarmBoy	31	20	11	12	8	TRUE	44	0	44
shinesengumi	31	20	11	12	8	TRUE	44	0	44

[BostonCard]

[table][tr][td]Member	Stanford	Kansas State	Difference	Absolute Error	Spread + Mean error	Correct winner	Points	Bonus	Final tally
Griifin78	23	6	17	10	9	TRUE	42	0	42
CornFed	31	10	21	8	9	TRUE	42	0	42
Kyle Bonagura	35	21	14	17	9.5	TRUE	40	0	40
Chantel Jennings	35	21	14	17	9.5	TRUE	40	0	40
Durty Nelly	34	17	17	12	10	TRUE	38	0	38
CrazedZooChimp	34	17	17	12	10	TRUE	38	0	38
Ted Miller	27	20	7	8	10	TRUE	38	0	38
pefloresjr	27	20	7	8	10	TRUE	38	0	38
BigEasyCard	34	17	17	12	10	TRUE	38	0	38
PalmTree	34	17	17	12	10	TRUE	38	0	38
Hank 91	34	16	18	11	10.5	TRUE	32	0	32
Mitch Sherman	35	17	18	13	11.5	TRUE	31	0	31
Sherman	35	17	18	13	11.5	TRUE	31	0	31
SUBuddha	36	20	16	17	11.5	TRUE	31	0	31
el arbol	23	20	3	10	12	TRUE	28	0	28
HisKneeWasDown	17	10	7	12	12	TRUE	28	0	28
Sonof80sCard	34	13	21	8	12	TRUE	28	0	28
2 for 2028	34	13	21	8	12	TRUE	28	0	28
winflop	34	24	10	19	12.5	TRUE	24	0	24
Red State	31	6	25	12	13	TRUE	23	0	23
Hulk01	34	10	24	11	13.5	TRUE	22	0	22
Card Fan in OR	34	10	24	11	13.5	TRUE	22	0	22
Kevin Gemmell	38	21	17	20	14	TRUE	20	0	20
PrinceLightfoot	35	10	25	12	15	TRUE	19	0	19
ColoradoTree	37	16	21	14	15	TRUE	19	0	19
FrankO	35	10	25	12	15	TRUE	19	0	19
Big Brother	40	24	16	25	15.5	TRUE	16	0	16
Robber Baron 83	38	17	21	16	16	TRUE	15	0	15
David Lombardi	41	24	17	26	17	TRUE	14	0	14
Mick	38	14	24	13	17.5	TRUE	13	0	13
Jake Trotter	33	27	6	21	17.5	TRUE	13	0	13
Treebound	38	13	25	12	18	TRUE	11	0	11
Papa John	31	27	4	19	18.5	TRUE	10	0	10
Max Olson	31	27	4	19	18.5	TRUE	10	0	10
Phogge	38	11	27	14	19	TRUE	8	0	8
Trevmiesterj	38	10	28	15	19.5	TRUE	7	0	7
murky	42	13	29	16	24	TRUE	6	0	6
GoodGrief	42	10	32	19	25.5	TRUE	5	0	5
amartinsu13	45	10	35	22	30	TRUE	4	0	4
hardball01	45	10	35	22	30	TRUE	4	0	4
teejers1	17	19	-2	15	16.5	FALSE	2	0	2
DC Cat	27	30	-3	18	25	FALSE	1	0	1
Median	31	16	17	8	6
Average	31.1	15.5	16.1	7.6	6.4	CORRECT	INCORRECT
Actual Scores	26	13	13			78	2

[/td][/tr][/table]

[BostonCard]

[table][tr][td]Member	Stanford	Kansas State	Difference	Absolute Error	Spread + Mean error	Correct winner	Points	Bonus	Final tally
Griifin78	23	6	17	10	9	TRUE	42	0	42
CornFed	31	10	21	8	9	TRUE	42	0	42
Kyle Bonagura	35	21	14	17	9.5	TRUE	40	0	40
Chantel Jennings	35	21	14	17	9.5	TRUE	40	0	40
Durty Nelly	34	17	17	12	10	TRUE	38	0	38
CrazedZooChimp	34	17	17	12	10	TRUE	38	0	38
Ted Miller	27	20	7	8	10	TRUE	38	0	38
pefloresjr	27	20	7	8	10	TRUE	38	0	38
BigEasyCard	34	17	17	12	10	TRUE	38	0	38
PalmTree	34	17	17	12	10	TRUE	38	0	38
Hank 91	34	16	18	11	10.5	TRUE	32	0	32
Mitch Sherman	35	17	18	13	11.5	TRUE	31	0	31
Sherman	35	17	18	13	11.5	TRUE	31	0	31
SUBuddha	36	20	16	17	11.5	TRUE	31	0	31
el arbol	23	20	3	10	12	TRUE	28	0	28
HisKneeWasDown	17	10	7	12	12	TRUE	28	0	28
Sonof80sCard	34	13	21	8	12	TRUE	28	0	28
2 for 2028	34	13	21	8	12	TRUE	28	0	28
winflop	34	24	10	19	12.5	TRUE	24	0	24
Red State	31	6	25	12	13	TRUE	23	0	23
Hulk01	34	10	24	11	13.5	TRUE	22	0	22
Card Fan in OR	34	10	24	11	13.5	TRUE	22	0	22
Kevin Gemmell	38	21	17	20	14	TRUE	20	0	20
PrinceLightfoot	35	10	25	12	15	TRUE	19	0	19
ColoradoTree	37	16	21	14	15	TRUE	19	0	19
FrankO	35	10	25	12	15	TRUE	19	0	19
Big Brother	40	24	16	25	15.5	TRUE	16	0	16
Robber Baron 83	38	17	21	16	16	TRUE	15	0	15
David Lombardi	41	24	17	26	17	TRUE	14	0	14
Mick	38	14	24	13	17.5	TRUE	13	0	13
Jake Trotter	33	27	6	21	17.5	TRUE	13	0	13
Treebound	38	13	25	12	18	TRUE	11	0	11
Papa John	31	27	4	19	18.5	TRUE	10	0	10
Max Olson	31	27	4	19	18.5	TRUE	10	0	10
Phogge	38	11	27	14	19	TRUE	8	0	8
Trevmiesterj	38	10	28	15	19.5	TRUE	7	0	7
murky	42	13	29	16	24	TRUE	6	0	6
GoodGrief	42	10	32	19	25.5	TRUE	5	0	5
amartinsu13	45	10	35	22	30	TRUE	4	0	4
hardball01	45	10	35	22	30	TRUE	4	0	4
teejers1	17	19	-2	15	16.5	FALSE	2	0	2
DC Cat	27	30	-3	18	25	FALSE	1	0	1
Median	31	16	17	8	6
Average	31.1	15.5	16.1	7.6	6.4	CORRECT	INCORRECT
Actual Scores	26	13	13			78	2

[/td][/tr][/table]

[BostonCard]

Congratulations thunder_chik and standfan!  You almost nailed the score; if only we would have replaced the safety with a field goal.

Our median guess was 31 - 16.5, which was not that far off.  It was a bit of a lower scoring guess than we expected, and I guess scoring 5 points fewer than our collective guess is a cause for concern.

BC

[BostonCard]

Congratulations thunder_chik and standfan!  You almost nailed the score; if only we would have replaced the safety with a field goal.

Our median guess was 31 - 16.5, which was not that far off.  It was a bit of a lower scoring guess than we expected, and I guess scoring 5 points fewer than our collective guess is a cause for concern.

BC

[martyup]

BC, thank you for taking on this task.  My prediction was 31 - 17, not 35 - 17.  Can you please correct the results?

[martyup]

BC, thank you for taking on this task.  My prediction was 31 - 17, not 35 - 17.  Can you please correct the results?

[amartinsu13]

Wow, I literally had one of the worst predictions of the game. 

[amartinsu13]

Wow, I literally had one of the worst predictions of the game. 

[MSmith23]

Cardinal - 27
Wildcats - 14

Thank you BC for doing the prediction thread! I think you might have missed my prediction of 27-14 Cardinal.

[MSmith23]

Cardinal - 27
Wildcats - 14

Thank you BC for doing the prediction thread! I think you might have missed my prediction of 27-14 Cardinal.

[martyup]

Wow, I literally had one of the worst predictions of the game.

It's okay.  At least you were wrong in the right direction.  We'll get there this season.

[martyup]

Wow, I literally had one of the worst predictions of the game.

It's okay.  At least you were wrong in the right direction.  We'll get there this season.

[BostonCard]

[quote author=MSmith23 link=topic=15489.msg168464#msg168464 date=1472154515]
Cardinal - 27
Wildcats - 14

Thank you BC for doing the prediction thread! I think you might have missed my prediction of 27-14 Cardinal.
[/quote]

That makes you the winner!  Congratulations.  You nailed the spread of 13, and your mean score was only 1 off the true mean.

BC

[BostonCard]

[quote author=MSmith23 link=topic=15489.msg168464#msg168464 date=1472154515]
Cardinal - 27
Wildcats - 14

Thank you BC for doing the prediction thread! I think you might have missed my prediction of 27-14 Cardinal.
[/quote]

That makes you the winner!  Congratulations.  You nailed the spread of 13, and your mean score was only 1 off the true mean.

BC

[Row80Critic]

I understand the logic of the scoring, but it creates fairly counterintuitive rankings in this case.

Actual score was Stanford 26,  Kansas State 13.

The top two in these rankings both guessed Stanford would score 27, so they are even on that side of the score.

One guy then guessed Kansas State's score exactly right at 13, while the other guy was off by a point. 

Yet, the guy who was off by a point wins over the guy(s) who was exactly right?

Algorithms aside, seems like the 27-13 guy out-guessed the 27-14 guy...

It's all in fun, but this is nerd nation, so couldn't resist.  Also, how does the bonus column work?

[Row80Critic]

I understand the logic of the scoring, but it creates fairly counterintuitive rankings in this case.

Actual score was Stanford 26,  Kansas State 13.

The top two in these rankings both guessed Stanford would score 27, so they are even on that side of the score.

One guy then guessed Kansas State's score exactly right at 13, while the other guy was off by a point. 

Yet, the guy who was off by a point wins over the guy(s) who was exactly right?

Algorithms aside, seems like the 27-13 guy out-guessed the 27-14 guy...

It's all in fun, but this is nerd nation, so couldn't resist.  Also, how does the bonus column work?

[martyup]

I could see a bonus for nailing one or both scores.  This might correct that problem.

[martyup]

I could see a bonus for nailing one or both scores.  This might correct that problem.