11-03-2016, 05:11 PM
Five teams have 3 or fewer losses in conference, if Washington goes to the Playoff and a second team goes to the Rose Bowl, that means we need three teams to lose some more.
Northern teams:
UW (5-0): If they win out, they will hang a losses on USC and Washington State (plus another South team in the P12 Championship).
WSU (5-0): I think in our ideal scenario, WSU suffers only one loss (to UW) and goes to the Rose Bowl. If so, they would hang a loss onto Colorado. Alternatively, if they lose to Cal or Arizona, then a loss to Colorado and UW would leave them with three losses (but having won head-to-head against us, they might have an advantage)
Southern teams:
Colorado (4-1): They have games against UCLA, Arizona, WashU and Utah. If we are sending WSU to the Rose bowl you might pencil in a loss there, but we would want Colorado to lose at least one other game, preferably to UCLA and/or Arizona. Otherwise, we have to hope Utah beats them and loses at least one other game. Colorado does have a head-to-head win against us/
Utah (4-2): They have games against ASU, Oregon, and Colorado. A loss to ASU and/or Oregon would help us, and then they can beat Colorado. Or, if Colorado loses to UCLA or Arizona, then we can have them beat the Utes.
USC (4-2): They have games against Oregon, Washington, and UCLA. We can pencil in a loss to Washington, but we probably want them to lose at least one more time. Although we hold the head-to-head win, there is no requirement for the bowl to pick the head-to-head winner.
To be safe, I think we would want the teams we are competing against to be 5-4 rather than 6-3, as I suspect the Alamo bowl would not pick us because of our "reputation".
So here's your rooting guide:
UW: win out to wind up 9-0
WSU: win out except loss to UW to wind up 8-1
Colorado: lose to Arizona, UCLA, UW, and Utah to wind up 4-5
Utah: Lose to ASU, Oregon, but beat Colorado to wind up 5-4
USC: Lose to Oregon, Washington, and UCLA to wind up 4-5 (too much of a risk that they jump us at 5-4)
BC
Northern teams:
UW (5-0): If they win out, they will hang a losses on USC and Washington State (plus another South team in the P12 Championship).
WSU (5-0): I think in our ideal scenario, WSU suffers only one loss (to UW) and goes to the Rose Bowl. If so, they would hang a loss onto Colorado. Alternatively, if they lose to Cal or Arizona, then a loss to Colorado and UW would leave them with three losses (but having won head-to-head against us, they might have an advantage)
Southern teams:
Colorado (4-1): They have games against UCLA, Arizona, WashU and Utah. If we are sending WSU to the Rose bowl you might pencil in a loss there, but we would want Colorado to lose at least one other game, preferably to UCLA and/or Arizona. Otherwise, we have to hope Utah beats them and loses at least one other game. Colorado does have a head-to-head win against us/
Utah (4-2): They have games against ASU, Oregon, and Colorado. A loss to ASU and/or Oregon would help us, and then they can beat Colorado. Or, if Colorado loses to UCLA or Arizona, then we can have them beat the Utes.
USC (4-2): They have games against Oregon, Washington, and UCLA. We can pencil in a loss to Washington, but we probably want them to lose at least one more time. Although we hold the head-to-head win, there is no requirement for the bowl to pick the head-to-head winner.
To be safe, I think we would want the teams we are competing against to be 5-4 rather than 6-3, as I suspect the Alamo bowl would not pick us because of our "reputation".
So here's your rooting guide:
UW: win out to wind up 9-0
WSU: win out except loss to UW to wind up 8-1
Colorado: lose to Arizona, UCLA, UW, and Utah to wind up 4-5
Utah: Lose to ASU, Oregon, but beat Colorado to wind up 5-4
USC: Lose to Oregon, Washington, and UCLA to wind up 4-5 (too much of a risk that they jump us at 5-4)
BC
