[pcgoode]

Line opened with the Cardinal favoured by 33.5 points.

[pcgoode]

Line opened with the Cardinal favoured by 33.5 points.

[needle]

I would take Rice in a heartbeat. Last year Stanford beat Rice by 24 points, and Rice finished the year 3-9.

[needle]

I would take Rice in a heartbeat. Last year Stanford beat Rice by 24 points, and Rice finished the year 3-9.

[French Rage]

I would take Rice in a heartbeat. Last year Stanford beat Rice by 24 points, and Rice finished the year 3-9.

Even if we have the pure talent to beat Rice by that much (not saying we don't, just saying it's crazy to assume anything before a single game is played in a season), no way in hell Shaw is showing enough to win by 34 in the first game, with USC coming up next.  He'll get up 15 and hold.  But I suppose Vegas is going for the people not paying attention; or those so itching to place money they're betting on Stanford/Rice a week before anyone else (if this is you, you have a problem).

[French Rage]

I would take Rice in a heartbeat. Last year Stanford beat Rice by 24 points, and Rice finished the year 3-9.

Even if we have the pure talent to beat Rice by that much (not saying we don't, just saying it's crazy to assume anything before a single game is played in a season), no way in hell Shaw is showing enough to win by 34 in the first game, with USC coming up next.  He'll get up 15 and hold.  But I suppose Vegas is going for the people not paying attention; or those so itching to place money they're betting on Stanford/Rice a week before anyone else (if this is you, you have a problem).

[JohnR34231]

Yep, I would assume one of the primary goals of this game is to keep the starters healthy for U$C and the rest of the season, as well as to give the backups some experience. So I wouldn't expect to see key players any longer than Shaw feels necessary to win the game. In addition, it is our first game, played thousands of miles away in a foreign country, so I would hardly expect us to demonstrate mid season form.
Also it's possible that Rice is significantly improved over last year. Doubtful, but you never know. Look at Northwestern in 2015.
To me, all that does not add up to a nearly five touchdown victory.

[JohnR34231]

Yep, I would assume one of the primary goals of this game is to keep the starters healthy for U$C and the rest of the season, as well as to give the backups some experience. So I wouldn't expect to see key players any longer than Shaw feels necessary to win the game. In addition, it is our first game, played thousands of miles away in a foreign country, so I would hardly expect us to demonstrate mid season form.
Also it's possible that Rice is significantly improved over last year. Doubtful, but you never know. Look at Northwestern in 2015.
To me, all that does not add up to a nearly five touchdown victory.

[SF_Cardinal_Fan]

When I hear the name Rice University I think of this guy :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b6CGBgt2Rk

[SF_Cardinal_Fan]

When I hear the name Rice University I think of this guy :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b6CGBgt2Rk

[OutsiderFan]

Very good teams destroy opponents like Rice.  If Stanford's lines and overall roster are as good as the consensus seems to assume, Rice won't score much and they won't be able to stop Stanford.  A 41-7 score would validate a team with a #13 ranking against unranked and historically irrelevant Rice.

If Stanford doesn't smash Rice by at least 4 TDs it's hard to imagine it will be USC much longer.  Let's not pretend Rice is Northwestern.  It would be a canary in a coal mine if Rice can compete with Stanford in the trenches.

[OutsiderFan]

Very good teams destroy opponents like Rice.  If Stanford's lines and overall roster are as good as the consensus seems to assume, Rice won't score much and they won't be able to stop Stanford.  A 41-7 score would validate a team with a #13 ranking against unranked and historically irrelevant Rice.

If Stanford doesn't smash Rice by at least 4 TDs it's hard to imagine it will be USC much longer.  Let's not pretend Rice is Northwestern.  It would be a canary in a coal mine if Rice can compete with Stanford in the trenches.

[JohnR34231]

Very good teams destroy opponents like Rice.  If Stanford's lines and overall roster are as good as the consensus seems to assume, Rice won't score much and they won't be able to stop Stanford.  A 41-7 score would validate a team with a #13 ranking against unranked and historically irrelevant Rice.

If Stanford doesn't smash Rice by at least 4 TDs it's hard to imagine it will be Under Stanford Control (again) much longer.  Let's not pretend Rice is Northwestern.  It would be a canary in a coal mine if Rice can compete with Stanford in the trenches.

Hey. hope you're right. Hope we do run Rice out of the stadium (even with our second string, which I think will be in there as soon as Shaw feels we have a comfortable lead).
If we don't though, I don't think it necessarily means we are doomed against U$C.

[JohnR34231]

Very good teams destroy opponents like Rice.  If Stanford's lines and overall roster are as good as the consensus seems to assume, Rice won't score much and they won't be able to stop Stanford.  A 41-7 score would validate a team with a #13 ranking against unranked and historically irrelevant Rice.

If Stanford doesn't smash Rice by at least 4 TDs it's hard to imagine it will be Under Stanford Control (again) much longer.  Let's not pretend Rice is Northwestern.  It would be a canary in a coal mine if Rice can compete with Stanford in the trenches.

Hey. hope you're right. Hope we do run Rice out of the stadium (even with our second string, which I think will be in there as soon as Shaw feels we have a comfortable lead).
If we don't though, I don't think it necessarily means we are doomed against U$C.

[Goose]

If Stanford doesn't smash Rice by at least 4 TDs it's hard to imagine it will be Under Stanford Control (again) much longer.

I really don't agree here. There are lots of things that affect the final score. What if Stanford does all kinds of experiments with all three QBs, lets the freshmen tackles play, etc. There are plenty of ways that the score could be kept in line that would mean nothing about the next game. Also, I am sure Shaw will not want to make Rice look bad. If we get ahead by a lot, the pedal will be off the metal in a big way.

Let's not pretend Rice is Northwestern.

Well, we didn't pretend that Northwestern was Northwestern, and that didn't end too well! I don't expect much from Rice, but I sure hope the team doesn't think like that. Furthermore, Rice has a history of being pretty good every so often. Are we REAL sure that this isn't one of those years? I don't want to test that assumption.

  It would be a canary in a coal mine if Rice can compete with Stanford in the trenches.

I completely agree here. If we can't run at will on these guys, it is not a good sign. Last year, we pretty much could as the game wore on. This year, it should be from the first play if we have improved as much as advertised. Ditto on defense, although the linebackers may be more the weapon than the DL.

[Goose]

If Stanford doesn't smash Rice by at least 4 TDs it's hard to imagine it will be Under Stanford Control (again) much longer.

I really don't agree here. There are lots of things that affect the final score. What if Stanford does all kinds of experiments with all three QBs, lets the freshmen tackles play, etc. There are plenty of ways that the score could be kept in line that would mean nothing about the next game. Also, I am sure Shaw will not want to make Rice look bad. If we get ahead by a lot, the pedal will be off the metal in a big way.

Let's not pretend Rice is Northwestern.

Well, we didn't pretend that Northwestern was Northwestern, and that didn't end too well! I don't expect much from Rice, but I sure hope the team doesn't think like that. Furthermore, Rice has a history of being pretty good every so often. Are we REAL sure that this isn't one of those years? I don't want to test that assumption.

  It would be a canary in a coal mine if Rice can compete with Stanford in the trenches.

I completely agree here. If we can't run at will on these guys, it is not a good sign. Last year, we pretty much could as the game wore on. This year, it should be from the first play if we have improved as much as advertised. Ditto on defense, although the linebackers may be more the weapon than the DL.

[OutsiderFan]

Northwestern is a middle of the pack Big Ten team.  Rice is a bottom dwelling Conference USA team.  Gigantic difference.

[OutsiderFan]

Northwestern is a middle of the pack Big Ten team.  Rice is a bottom dwelling Conference USA team.  Gigantic difference.

[BigEasyCard]

When I hear the name Rice University I think of this guy :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b6CGBgt2Rk

Nice story.  Thanks for posting.

I think of this guy:

https://www.si.com/vault/1965/09/27/6065...-too-smart

I also look forward to the years when Stanford baseball travels to Rice as it's an easy trip from New Orleans.  I've actually watched more Stanford baseball at Reckling Park than at Klein Field at Sunken Diamond.  Matthew Reckling of Rice and Jack Klein of Stanford each played baseball on the fields named for their respective grandfathers.

And now, to reverse my thread drift, only TWELVE days until kickoff!

Geaux Cardinal!

[BigEasyCard]

When I hear the name Rice University I think of this guy :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8b6CGBgt2Rk

Nice story.  Thanks for posting.

I think of this guy:

https://www.si.com/vault/1965/09/27/6065...-too-smart

I also look forward to the years when Stanford baseball travels to Rice as it's an easy trip from New Orleans.  I've actually watched more Stanford baseball at Reckling Park than at Klein Field at Sunken Diamond.  Matthew Reckling of Rice and Jack Klein of Stanford each played baseball on the fields named for their respective grandfathers.

And now, to reverse my thread drift, only TWELVE days until kickoff!

Geaux Cardinal!

[Phogge]

Rice was a Fifties power in the SWC. They had one of the few two QB systems that worked with Ryan and King Hill. In '57 Rice beat a good Chuck Taylor team 34-7.

[Phogge]

Rice was a Fifties power in the SWC. They had one of the few two QB systems that worked with Ryan and King Hill. In '57 Rice beat a good Chuck Taylor team 34-7.

[CTcard]

Northwestern is a middle of the pack Big Ten team.  Rice is a bottom dwelling Conference USA team.  Gigantic difference.

Well, there is also a gigantic difference between losing by 10 and covering a 33.5 point spread. A 44 point difference to be exact.

Generally, if I were to bet I would take the points in games where Stanford is a big favourite. Shaw tends to go to extremes to run clock, shut down the offense, and clear the bench when Stanford has a comfortable lead. That tends to lead to smaller margins of victory than expected from simple evaluations of team quality.

[CTcard]

Northwestern is a middle of the pack Big Ten team.  Rice is a bottom dwelling Conference USA team.  Gigantic difference.

Well, there is also a gigantic difference between losing by 10 and covering a 33.5 point spread. A 44 point difference to be exact.

Generally, if I were to bet I would take the points in games where Stanford is a big favourite. Shaw tends to go to extremes to run clock, shut down the offense, and clear the bench when Stanford has a comfortable lead. That tends to lead to smaller margins of victory than expected from simple evaluations of team quality.

[JohnR34231]

Northwestern is a middle of the pack Big Ten team.  Rice is a bottom dwelling Conference USA team.  Gigantic difference.

Of course there is. I merely mentioned Northwestern to show that teams can improve significantly from one year to the next. Northwestern was coming off two losing seasons in a row before they beat us and went on to a 10-3 season in 2015.

[JohnR34231]

Northwestern is a middle of the pack Big Ten team.  Rice is a bottom dwelling Conference USA team.  Gigantic difference.

Of course there is. I merely mentioned Northwestern to show that teams can improve significantly from one year to the next. Northwestern was coming off two losing seasons in a row before they beat us and went on to a 10-3 season in 2015.

[Chupacabra]

You know Shaw is going to pound the ball all day long and play time of possession. The only way Stanford beats the spread is if they break a few long TDs. We've seen enough Shawfense to know that they're not going to open up until (often after) they really need to do so.

[Chupacabra]

You know Shaw is going to pound the ball all day long and play time of possession. The only way Stanford beats the spread is if they break a few long TDs. We've seen enough Shawfense to know that they're not going to open up until (often after) they really need to do so.

[JohnR34231]

You know Shaw is going to pound the ball all day long and play time of possession. The only way Stanford beats the spread is if they break a few long TDs. We've seen enough Shawfense to know that they're not going to open up until (often after) they really need to do so.

Yep, and the fact that Chryst is coming off an injury makes them even more likely to play that way.

[JohnR34231]

You know Shaw is going to pound the ball all day long and play time of possession. The only way Stanford beats the spread is if they break a few long TDs. We've seen enough Shawfense to know that they're not going to open up until (often after) they really need to do so.

Yep, and the fact that Chryst is coming off an injury makes them even more likely to play that way.

[Goose]

[quote author=Chupacabra link=topic=17161.msg197159#msg197159 date=1502736591]
You know Shaw is going to pound the ball all day long and play time of possession. The only way Stanford beats the spread is if they break a few long TDs. We've seen enough Shawfense to know that they're not going to open up until (often after) they really need to do so.

Yep, and the fact that Chryst is coming off an injury makes them even more likely to play that way.
[/quote]

Yes, and additionally, if they get ahead, it is a great time to see what they have in backup OL, receivers, RBs, and QB. Costello probably will get a chance to show what he can do in a real game.

[Goose]

[quote author=Chupacabra link=topic=17161.msg197159#msg197159 date=1502736591]
You know Shaw is going to pound the ball all day long and play time of possession. The only way Stanford beats the spread is if they break a few long TDs. We've seen enough Shawfense to know that they're not going to open up until (often after) they really need to do so.

Yep, and the fact that Chryst is coming off an injury makes them even more likely to play that way.
[/quote]

Yes, and additionally, if they get ahead, it is a great time to see what they have in backup OL, receivers, RBs, and QB. Costello probably will get a chance to show what he can do in a real game.

[DC 86]

Generally, if I were to bet I would take the points in games where Stanford is a big favourite. Shaw tends to go to extremes to run clock, shut down the offense, and clear the bench when Stanford has a comfortable lead. That tends to lead to smaller margins of victory than expected from simple evaluations of team quality.

The logic is intuitive and sound, but results have been the exact opposite. The following are those games where Stanford has been favored by 17+ points during the David Shaw (as head coach) era, 2011-2016:

[Season/Opponent/Point Spread/Score/win or loss vs spread; source: Oddshark.com database]

2014 vs UC Davis, -43.5, 45-0 (win)
2016 vs Rice, -34, 41-17 (loss)
2013 vs Cal, -31.5, 63-13 (win)
2013 vs Army, -30.5, 34-20 (loss)
2011 vs San Jose State, -30, 57-3 (win)
2014 vs Army, -29.5, 35-0 (win)
2011 vs Colorado, -29, 48-7 (win)
2012 vs Colorado, -27.5, 48-0 (win)
2012 vs San Jose State, -26.5, 20-17 (loss)
2012 vs WSU, -25.5, 24-17 (loss)
2013 vs San Jose State, -24.5, 34-13 (loss)
2011 vs UCLA, -23, 45-19 (win)
2011 vs Duke -20.5, 44-14 (win)
2011 vs Oregon State, -20.5, 38-13 (win)
2015 vs Central Florida, -20.5, 31-7 (win)
2011 vs WSU, -20, 44-14 (win)
2011 vs Washington, -18, 65-21 (win)
2011 vs Cal, -17.5, 31-28 (loss)
2014 vs WSU, -17, 34-17 (-)

Favored by 40+: 1-0 vs spread.
Favored by 30+: 3-2 vs spread.
Favored by 20+: 11-5 vs spread.

In early season games (2011 vs SJS, 2011 vs Duke, 2012 vs SJS, 2012 vs Duke, 2013 vs SJS, 2013 vs Army, 2014 vs UCD, 2014 vs Army, 2015 vs UCF), Stanford is 6-3 vs the spread, so the theory that Stanford will not cover as a result of not opening up the playbook vs early season non-conference opponents also doesn't hold.

[DC 86]

Generally, if I were to bet I would take the points in games where Stanford is a big favourite. Shaw tends to go to extremes to run clock, shut down the offense, and clear the bench when Stanford has a comfortable lead. That tends to lead to smaller margins of victory than expected from simple evaluations of team quality.

The logic is intuitive and sound, but results have been the exact opposite. The following are those games where Stanford has been favored by 17+ points during the David Shaw (as head coach) era, 2011-2016:

[Season/Opponent/Point Spread/Score/win or loss vs spread; source: Oddshark.com database]

2014 vs UC Davis, -43.5, 45-0 (win)
2016 vs Rice, -34, 41-17 (loss)
2013 vs Cal, -31.5, 63-13 (win)
2013 vs Army, -30.5, 34-20 (loss)
2011 vs San Jose State, -30, 57-3 (win)
2014 vs Army, -29.5, 35-0 (win)
2011 vs Colorado, -29, 48-7 (win)
2012 vs Colorado, -27.5, 48-0 (win)
2012 vs San Jose State, -26.5, 20-17 (loss)
2012 vs WSU, -25.5, 24-17 (loss)
2013 vs San Jose State, -24.5, 34-13 (loss)
2011 vs UCLA, -23, 45-19 (win)
2011 vs Duke -20.5, 44-14 (win)
2011 vs Oregon State, -20.5, 38-13 (win)
2015 vs Central Florida, -20.5, 31-7 (win)
2011 vs WSU, -20, 44-14 (win)
2011 vs Washington, -18, 65-21 (win)
2011 vs Cal, -17.5, 31-28 (loss)
2014 vs WSU, -17, 34-17 (-)

Favored by 40+: 1-0 vs spread.
Favored by 30+: 3-2 vs spread.
Favored by 20+: 11-5 vs spread.

In early season games (2011 vs SJS, 2011 vs Duke, 2012 vs SJS, 2012 vs Duke, 2013 vs SJS, 2013 vs Army, 2014 vs UCD, 2014 vs Army, 2015 vs UCF), Stanford is 6-3 vs the spread, so the theory that Stanford will not cover as a result of not opening up the playbook vs early season non-conference opponents also doesn't hold.

[Mick]

While David Shaw was coaching, first game of the season, solely against D1A competition, Stanford has surpassed the 33 point margin just once, in Shaw's first year against San Jose State.  Here are Shaw's last six opening games:

2011  SJSU, 57-3
2012  SJSU, 20-17
2013  SJSU, 34-13
2014  Davis, 45-0
2015  Northwestern, 6-16
2016  Kansas State, 26-13

[Mick]

While David Shaw was coaching, first game of the season, solely against D1A competition, Stanford has surpassed the 33 point margin just once, in Shaw's first year against San Jose State.  Here are Shaw's last six opening games:

2011  SJSU, 57-3
2012  SJSU, 20-17
2013  SJSU, 34-13
2014  Davis, 45-0
2015  Northwestern, 6-16
2016  Kansas State, 26-13

[DC 86]

While David Shaw was coaching, first game of the season, solely against D1A competition, Stanford has surpassed the 33 point margin just once, in Shaw's first year against San Jose State.  Here are Shaw's last six opening games:

2011  SJSU, 57-3
2012  SJSU, 20-17
2013  SJSU, 34-13
2014  Davis, 45-0
2015  Northwestern, 6-16
2016  Kansas State, 26-13

Well, the only one of those openers in which Stanford was favored by 33 points or more was the UC Davis game which they won by 45. Last year Stanford was favored by 12.5 points against a solid Kansas State team, and the prior year they were only 10 point favorites against Northwestern on the road. Both a far cry from Rice.

[DC 86]

While David Shaw was coaching, first game of the season, solely against D1A competition, Stanford has surpassed the 33 point margin just once, in Shaw's first year against San Jose State.  Here are Shaw's last six opening games:

2011  SJSU, 57-3
2012  SJSU, 20-17
2013  SJSU, 34-13
2014  Davis, 45-0
2015  Northwestern, 6-16
2016  Kansas State, 26-13

Well, the only one of those openers in which Stanford was favored by 33 points or more was the UC Davis game which they won by 45. Last year Stanford was favored by 12.5 points against a solid Kansas State team, and the prior year they were only 10 point favorites against Northwestern on the road. Both a far cry from Rice.

[82lsju]

assuming there is a pick the score contest this year, in about 10 days we should have a pretty good idea of who here thinks we'll beat the spread.....

[82lsju]

assuming there is a pick the score contest this year, in about 10 days we should have a pretty good idea of who here thinks we'll beat the spread.....