10-28-2017, 12:57 PM
(10-28-2017, 11:01 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:It's easy to harp on bad outcomes without considering whether the methods that lead to the outcome were good or bad. It's possible to do things the right way and have it turn out badly. It's possible to do things badly and get lucky (though generally not consistently). At this point Shaw has had enough success that, while you can certainly find areas where he can improve*, he is very, very clearly doing more right than wrong.It is also possible, even likely, that there is no "right" call in a given situation. Football isn't an analytic science. Even if the aggregate percentages across all games indicate that a certain play is the "best choice", that doesn't prove it is the best choice for your team vs. a particular opponent on a given day. You may choose a different play because your team can't execute the best choice very well, or because you know that they know that you know, etc. It is therefore kind of meaningless to say "that was a bad call" in a given situation. It all comes down to "do you win more than other coaching choices", and Shaw certainly does that. So, while contra-factual speculation may be fun, it is really meaningless. It is an opinion that can't be tested. The fans just need to keep that in mind when criticizing the coach.
*My personal biggest problem is his 4th-down decision making. Though I think he's better than average, especially for someone with an NFL pedigree, the analysis that leads to the conclusion that you should almost always go for it on short yardage is incredibly straightforward and accessible. There's really no excuse for getting that wrong.



