[81alum]

We would certainly all like it if we did host the first two rounds of the NCAAs--it would give McPhee and Johnson a couple more games in Maples before they graduate.

The NCAA WBB committee publishes three "reveals" of their top 16 teams over the course of the season so that we can get an idea of trends.  It will be interesting to see how we do in the February 19 top 16 reveal by the NCAA committee.  The Feb 1 reveal occurred right before our Oregon trip and we obviously were not within their top 16.  We can keep a close eye on the schools on the "top 16 bubble" to see who might clear out to make room for us.
 
1  UConn
2  Mississippi State
3  Louisville
4  Votre Dame
5  Oregon
6  Baylor
7  South Carolina
8  Florida State
9  Texas
10  UCLA
11  Tennessee
12  Georgia
13  Maryland
14  Missouri
15  Michigan
16  Texas A&M

In reverse order, this is how they are doing:

A&M lost on Feb 1 to similarly ranked Tennessee and beat Auburn in conference games.  They are 18-6 with an RPI of 15.  They have a tough game with LSU coming up and then they play Mississippi State the day before the next reveal.  They could easily have 7 losses by that point.  If they drop 2 games we definitely would pass them.  If just one, then maybe/maybe not.

Michigan is 19-6 and just dropped two games to Purdue and Rutgers since the last reveal.  They have games against Northwestern, Michigan State, and Minnesota coming up.  Their RPI just dropped to 34.  They won't be getting in our way if we keep winning.  There is a slot potentially open.

Missouri is 18-5 and lost to Mississippi State on the day of the last reveal, but I don't think that will hurt them--they were quite competitive. Their RPI is 16.  They also beat Florida last night.  They have Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee coming up before the next reveal.  How they do will depend on how they play. It might take more than a loss to Tennessee to knock them out.

Maryland is 20-3 with an RPI of 18.  They have been winning lately and don't have any particularly tough games before the next reveal.  Hard to imagine that a team like us with 8 losses would pass them unless they drop a couple unexpectedly.

Georgia is 20-3 with an RPI of 20.  Since the last reveal they lost to surging LSU which may endanger their placement.  They also have games with South Carolina and Tennessee, among others, before the next reveal.  If they drop those two then I think it quite plausible that we could pass them, given that our RPI is already better than theirs.

Tennessee is 19-4 with an RPI of 11, and of course they beat us, and they beat TAMU since the last reveal.  They play Georgia and Missouri before the next reveal.  I don't think we pass them, even if they drop one or two, but they could help us by saddling Georgia and Missouri with losses.  In fact, let's hope they do. If Georgia and Missouri get wins they will probably stay in front of us without causing Tennessee to fall behind us.  Go Vols!

I don't think it likely we will pass up any of the top 10 without some meltdowns occurring that are hard to predict.  But there are 2 quite plausible pathways into the top 16 that will probably be open, maybe more.  But it all hinges on us continuing to win.  We drop a single game outside the Pac 12 tourny and we are out, in my opinion.  The number 9 would just loom way too large.  We might not even make it if we win out--there could be certain committee members who just can't stomach letting an 8 loss team host over 2 loss Green Bay, for example.

Charlie Creme thinks that in the long run, when Missouri and A&M close their season by playing each other, that Stanford will probably pass whichever of the two loses to make it into the 16.  Again, assuming we win out the regular season.  But we might not need to with Michigan dropping like a rock.

Another question is whether there are other teams on the 16 bubble competing with us to get in, or are we now the first team out?  These are the teams with a top 20 RPI today that were not in the 16 of the last reveal:

Stanford 12
Green Bay 13
Rutgers 14
NC State 17
Duke 19

Green Bay has little chance to move up given their schedule.  Rutgers is way, way outside the top 25 in the AP and 6-5 in conference.  Hard to imagine them moving in.  North Carolina State also is unranked.  Duke is ranked just below us at 19 and were just crushed by Votre Dame after the last reveal, which they didn't make anyway.  They play Florida State on the day of the next reveal, probably too late to matter.  They probably are the biggest threat to take one of the 16 other than ourselves.

These "reveals" are not promises by the committee.  But as I see it, any team on the last reveal is "in" if they win-out after that point, which is why I would dearly love to see us make that list.  It will come right after our two C al games.  Better win the next four.

Of course, keep in mind what it would mean to host in the 15th or 16th slot.  It would likely mean if we win our two games at home we would get to go play UConn or Mississippi State in the sweet sixteen.  So we might want to be careful what we wish for.

[81alum]

We would certainly all like it if we did host the first two rounds of the NCAAs--it would give McPhee and Johnson a couple more games in Maples before they graduate.

The NCAA WBB committee publishes three "reveals" of their top 16 teams over the course of the season so that we can get an idea of trends.  It will be interesting to see how we do in the February 19 top 16 reveal by the NCAA committee.  The Feb 1 reveal occurred right before our Oregon trip and we obviously were not within their top 16.  We can keep a close eye on the schools on the "top 16 bubble" to see who might clear out to make room for us.
 
1  UConn
2  Mississippi State
3  Louisville
4  Votre Dame
5  Oregon
6  Baylor
7  South Carolina
8  Florida State
9  Texas
10  UCLA
11  Tennessee
12  Georgia
13  Maryland
14  Missouri
15  Michigan
16  Texas A&M

In reverse order, this is how they are doing:

A&M lost on Feb 1 to similarly ranked Tennessee and beat Auburn in conference games.  They are 18-6 with an RPI of 15.  They have a tough game with LSU coming up and then they play Mississippi State the day before the next reveal.  They could easily have 7 losses by that point.  If they drop 2 games we definitely would pass them.  If just one, then maybe/maybe not.

Michigan is 19-6 and just dropped two games to Purdue and Rutgers since the last reveal.  They have games against Northwestern, Michigan State, and Minnesota coming up.  Their RPI just dropped to 34.  They won't be getting in our way if we keep winning.  There is a slot potentially open.

Missouri is 18-5 and lost to Mississippi State on the day of the last reveal, but I don't think that will hurt them--they were quite competitive. Their RPI is 16.  They also beat Florida last night.  They have Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee coming up before the next reveal.  How they do will depend on how they play. It might take more than a loss to Tennessee to knock them out.

Maryland is 20-3 with an RPI of 18.  They have been winning lately and don't have any particularly tough games before the next reveal.  Hard to imagine that a team like us with 8 losses would pass them unless they drop a couple unexpectedly.

Georgia is 20-3 with an RPI of 20.  Since the last reveal they lost to surging LSU which may endanger their placement.  They also have games with South Carolina and Tennessee, among others, before the next reveal.  If they drop those two then I think it quite plausible that we could pass them, given that our RPI is already better than theirs.

Tennessee is 19-4 with an RPI of 11, and of course they beat us, and they beat TAMU since the last reveal.  They play Georgia and Missouri before the next reveal.  I don't think we pass them, even if they drop one or two, but they could help us by saddling Georgia and Missouri with losses.  In fact, let's hope they do. If Georgia and Missouri get wins they will probably stay in front of us without causing Tennessee to fall behind us.  Go Vols!

I don't think it likely we will pass up any of the top 10 without some meltdowns occurring that are hard to predict.  But there are 2 quite plausible pathways into the top 16 that will probably be open, maybe more.  But it all hinges on us continuing to win.  We drop a single game outside the Pac 12 tourny and we are out, in my opinion.  The number 9 would just loom way too large.  We might not even make it if we win out--there could be certain committee members who just can't stomach letting an 8 loss team host over 2 loss Green Bay, for example.

Charlie Creme thinks that in the long run, when Missouri and A&M close their season by playing each other, that Stanford will probably pass whichever of the two loses to make it into the 16.  Again, assuming we win out the regular season.  But we might not need to with Michigan dropping like a rock.

Another question is whether there are other teams on the 16 bubble competing with us to get in, or are we now the first team out?  These are the teams with a top 20 RPI today that were not in the 16 of the last reveal:

Stanford 12
Green Bay 13
Rutgers 14
NC State 17
Duke 19

Green Bay has little chance to move up given their schedule.  Rutgers is way, way outside the top 25 in the AP and 6-5 in conference.  Hard to imagine them moving in.  North Carolina State also is unranked.  Duke is ranked just below us at 19 and were just crushed by Votre Dame after the last reveal, which they didn't make anyway.  They play Florida State on the day of the next reveal, probably too late to matter.  They probably are the biggest threat to take one of the 16 other than ourselves.

These "reveals" are not promises by the committee.  But as I see it, any team on the last reveal is "in" if they win-out after that point, which is why I would dearly love to see us make that list.  It will come right after our two C al games.  Better win the next four.

Of course, keep in mind what it would mean to host in the 15th or 16th slot.  It would likely mean if we win our two games at home we would get to go play UConn or Mississippi State in the sweet sixteen.  So we might want to be careful what we wish for.

[81alum]

We would certainly all like it if we did host the first two rounds of the NCAAs--it would give McPhee and Johnson a couple more games in Maples before they graduate.

The NCAA WBB committee publishes three "reveals" of their top 16 teams over the course of the season so that we can get an idea of trends.  It will be interesting to see how we do in the February 19 top 16 reveal by the NCAA committee.  The Feb 1 reveal occurred right before our Oregon trip and we obviously were not within their top 16.  We can keep a close eye on the schools on the "top 16 bubble" to see who might clear out to make room for us.
 
1  UConn
2  Mississippi State
3  Louisville
4  Votre Dame
5  Oregon
6  Baylor
7  South Carolina
8  Florida State
9  Texas
10  UCLA
11  Tennessee
12  Georgia
13  Maryland
14  Missouri
15  Michigan
16  Texas A&M

In reverse order, this is how they are doing:

A&M lost on Feb 1 to similarly ranked Tennessee and beat Auburn in conference games.  They are 18-6 with an RPI of 15.  They have a tough game with LSU coming up and then they play Mississippi State the day before the next reveal.  They could easily have 7 losses by that point.  If they drop 2 games we definitely would pass them.  If just one, then maybe/maybe not.

Michigan is 19-6 and just dropped two games to Purdue and Rutgers since the last reveal.  They have games against Northwestern, Michigan State, and Minnesota coming up.  Their RPI just dropped to 34.  They won't be getting in our way if we keep winning.  There is a slot potentially open.

Missouri is 18-5 and lost to Mississippi State on the day of the last reveal, but I don't think that will hurt them--they were quite competitive. Their RPI is 16.  They also beat Florida last night.  They have Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee coming up before the next reveal.  How they do will depend on how they play. It might take more than a loss to Tennessee to knock them out.

Maryland is 20-3 with an RPI of 18.  They have been winning lately and don't have any particularly tough games before the next reveal.  Hard to imagine that a team like us with 8 losses would pass them unless they drop a couple unexpectedly.

Georgia is 20-3 with an RPI of 20.  Since the last reveal they lost to surging LSU which may endanger their placement.  They also have games with South Carolina and Tennessee, among others, before the next reveal.  If they drop those two then I think it quite plausible that we could pass them, given that our RPI is already better than theirs.

Tennessee is 19-4 with an RPI of 11, and of course they beat us, and they beat TAMU since the last reveal.  They play Georgia and Missouri before the next reveal.  I don't think we pass them, even if they drop one or two, but they could help us by saddling Georgia and Missouri with losses.  In fact, let's hope they do. If Georgia and Missouri get wins they will probably stay in front of us without causing Tennessee to fall behind us.  Go Vols!

I don't think it likely we will pass up any of the top 10 without some meltdowns occurring that are hard to predict.  But there are 2 quite plausible pathways into the top 16 that will probably be open, maybe more.  But it all hinges on us continuing to win.  We drop a single game outside the Pac 12 tourny and we are out, in my opinion.  The number 9 would just loom way too large.  We might not even make it if we win out--there could be certain committee members who just can't stomach letting an 8 loss team host over 2 loss Green Bay, for example.

Charlie Creme thinks that in the long run, when Missouri and A&M close their season by playing each other, that Stanford will probably pass whichever of the two loses to make it into the 16.  Again, assuming we win out the regular season.  But we might not need to with Michigan dropping like a rock.

Another question is whether there are other teams on the 16 bubble competing with us to get in, or are we now the first team out?  These are the teams with a top 20 RPI today that were not in the 16 of the last reveal:

Stanford 12
Green Bay 13
Rutgers 14
NC State 17
Duke 19

Green Bay has little chance to move up given their schedule.  Rutgers is way, way outside the top 25 in the AP and 6-5 in conference.  Hard to imagine them moving in.  North Carolina State also is unranked.  Duke is ranked just below us at 19 and were just crushed by Votre Dame after the last reveal, which they didn't make anyway.  They play Florida State on the day of the next reveal, probably too late to matter.  They probably are the biggest threat to take one of the 16 other than ourselves.

These "reveals" are not promises by the committee.  But as I see it, any team on the last reveal is "in" if they win-out after that point, which is why I would dearly love to see us make that list.  It will come right after our two C al games.  Better win the next four.

Of course, keep in mind what it would mean to host in the 15th or 16th slot.  It would likely mean if we win our two games at home we would get to go play UConn or Mississippi State in the sweet sixteen.  So we might want to be careful what we wish for.

[81alum]

We would certainly all like it if we did host the first two rounds of the NCAAs--it would give McPhee and Johnson a couple more games in Maples before they graduate.

The NCAA WBB committee publishes three "reveals" of their top 16 teams over the course of the season so that we can get an idea of trends.  It will be interesting to see how we do in the February 19 top 16 reveal by the NCAA committee.  The Feb 1 reveal occurred right before our Oregon trip and we obviously were not within their top 16.  We can keep a close eye on the schools on the "top 16 bubble" to see who might clear out to make room for us.
 
1  UConn
2  Mississippi State
3  Louisville
4  Votre Dame
5  Oregon
6  Baylor
7  South Carolina
8  Florida State
9  Texas
10  UCLA
11  Tennessee
12  Georgia
13  Maryland
14  Missouri
15  Michigan
16  Texas A&M

In reverse order, this is how they are doing:

A&M lost on Feb 1 to similarly ranked Tennessee and beat Auburn in conference games.  They are 18-6 with an RPI of 15.  They have a tough game with LSU coming up and then they play Mississippi State the day before the next reveal.  They could easily have 7 losses by that point.  If they drop 2 games we definitely would pass them.  If just one, then maybe/maybe not.

Michigan is 19-6 and just dropped two games to Purdue and Rutgers since the last reveal.  They have games against Northwestern, Michigan State, and Minnesota coming up.  Their RPI just dropped to 34.  They won't be getting in our way if we keep winning.  There is a slot potentially open.

Missouri is 18-5 and lost to Mississippi State on the day of the last reveal, but I don't think that will hurt them--they were quite competitive. Their RPI is 16.  They also beat Florida last night.  They have Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee coming up before the next reveal.  How they do will depend on how they play. It might take more than a loss to Tennessee to knock them out.

Maryland is 20-3 with an RPI of 18.  They have been winning lately and don't have any particularly tough games before the next reveal.  Hard to imagine that a team like us with 8 losses would pass them unless they drop a couple unexpectedly.

Georgia is 20-3 with an RPI of 20.  Since the last reveal they lost to surging LSU which may endanger their placement.  They also have games with South Carolina and Tennessee, among others, before the next reveal.  If they drop those two then I think it quite plausible that we could pass them, given that our RPI is already better than theirs.

Tennessee is 19-4 with an RPI of 11, and of course they beat us, and they beat TAMU since the last reveal.  They play Georgia and Missouri before the next reveal.  I don't think we pass them, even if they drop one or two, but they could help us by saddling Georgia and Missouri with losses.  In fact, let's hope they do. If Georgia and Missouri get wins they will probably stay in front of us without causing Tennessee to fall behind us.  Go Vols!

I don't think it likely we will pass up any of the top 10 without some meltdowns occurring that are hard to predict.  But there are 2 quite plausible pathways into the top 16 that will probably be open, maybe more.  But it all hinges on us continuing to win.  We drop a single game outside the Pac 12 tourny and we are out, in my opinion.  The number 9 would just loom way too large.  We might not even make it if we win out--there could be certain committee members who just can't stomach letting an 8 loss team host over 2 loss Green Bay, for example.

Charlie Creme thinks that in the long run, when Missouri and A&M close their season by playing each other, that Stanford will probably pass whichever of the two loses to make it into the 16.  Again, assuming we win out the regular season.  But we might not need to with Michigan dropping like a rock.

Another question is whether there are other teams on the 16 bubble competing with us to get in, or are we now the first team out?  These are the teams with a top 20 RPI today that were not in the 16 of the last reveal:

Stanford 12
Green Bay 13
Rutgers 14
NC State 17
Duke 19

Green Bay has little chance to move up given their schedule.  Rutgers is way, way outside the top 25 in the AP and 6-5 in conference.  Hard to imagine them moving in.  North Carolina State also is unranked.  Duke is ranked just below us at 19 and were just crushed by Votre Dame after the last reveal, which they didn't make anyway.  They play Florida State on the day of the next reveal, probably too late to matter.  They probably are the biggest threat to take one of the 16 other than ourselves.

These "reveals" are not promises by the committee.  But as I see it, any team on the last reveal is "in" if they win-out after that point, which is why I would dearly love to see us make that list.  It will come right after our two C al games.  Better win the next four.

Of course, keep in mind what it would mean to host in the 15th or 16th slot.  It would likely mean if we win our two games at home we would get to go play UConn or Mississippi State in the sweet sixteen.  So we might want to be careful what we wish for.

[Viking_Guy]

Worth keeping in mind that bracketing does not necessarily follow the S-curve. Regionalization, avoiding rematches, etc., will all figure into the final bracket.  So being the #15 or #16 team doesn't mean you'll be slotted against the #1 or #2 overall.

What will be interesting is where we end up in comparison to Oregon and UCLA as the only other likely western seeds.  Because then it becomes who is the top seed in the west and gets bracketed to Spokane as a 2-4 seed with a top-seed team that has to travel west and maybe has to play late in their biological day

And of course, I could definitely see the committee sending us to play the Little Miss Muffets again. Because they do things like that.

VG

[Viking_Guy]

Worth keeping in mind that bracketing does not necessarily follow the S-curve. Regionalization, avoiding rematches, etc., will all figure into the final bracket.  So being the #15 or #16 team doesn't mean you'll be slotted against the #1 or #2 overall.

What will be interesting is where we end up in comparison to Oregon and UCLA as the only other likely western seeds.  Because then it becomes who is the top seed in the west and gets bracketed to Spokane as a 2-4 seed with a top-seed team that has to travel west and maybe has to play late in their biological day

And of course, I could definitely see the committee sending us to play the Little Miss Muffets again. Because they do things like that.

VG

[Viking_Guy]

Worth keeping in mind that bracketing does not necessarily follow the S-curve. Regionalization, avoiding rematches, etc., will all figure into the final bracket.  So being the #15 or #16 team doesn't mean you'll be slotted against the #1 or #2 overall.

What will be interesting is where we end up in comparison to Oregon and UCLA as the only other likely western seeds.  Because then it becomes who is the top seed in the west and gets bracketed to Spokane as a 2-4 seed with a top-seed team that has to travel west and maybe has to play late in their biological day

And of course, I could definitely see the committee sending us to play the Little Miss Muffets again. Because they do things like that.

VG

[Viking_Guy]

Worth keeping in mind that bracketing does not necessarily follow the S-curve. Regionalization, avoiding rematches, etc., will all figure into the final bracket.  So being the #15 or #16 team doesn't mean you'll be slotted against the #1 or #2 overall.

What will be interesting is where we end up in comparison to Oregon and UCLA as the only other likely western seeds.  Because then it becomes who is the top seed in the west and gets bracketed to Spokane as a 2-4 seed with a top-seed team that has to travel west and maybe has to play late in their biological day

And of course, I could definitely see the committee sending us to play the Little Miss Muffets again. Because they do things like that.

VG

[BobK]

Super analysis thanks

I think we have a good chance to host.    Or NCAA gymnastics ?  Like last year which probably helped us

[BobK]

Super analysis thanks

I think we have a good chance to host.    Or NCAA gymnastics ?  Like last year which probably helped us

[BobK]

Super analysis thanks

I think we have a good chance to host.    Or NCAA gymnastics ?  Like last year which probably helped us

[BobK]

Super analysis thanks

I think we have a good chance to host.    Or NCAA gymnastics ?  Like last year which probably helped us

[81alum]

As I looked over the lists, it dawned on my that Ohio State is not listed.  It was not part of the last reveal although it has an RPI of 5 and is ranked 13.  Why was it not in the reveal or the conversation?  Something I don't know about them?  My guess is that they will move in and replace Michigan, meaning our best shot is the Missouri or A&M slot.

[81alum]

As I looked over the lists, it dawned on my that Ohio State is not listed.  It was not part of the last reveal although it has an RPI of 5 and is ranked 13.  Why was it not in the reveal or the conversation?  Something I don't know about them?  My guess is that they will move in and replace Michigan, meaning our best shot is the Missouri or A&M slot.

[81alum]

As I looked over the lists, it dawned on my that Ohio State is not listed.  It was not part of the last reveal although it has an RPI of 5 and is ranked 13.  Why was it not in the reveal or the conversation?  Something I don't know about them?  My guess is that they will move in and replace Michigan, meaning our best shot is the Missouri or A&M slot.

[81alum]

As I looked over the lists, it dawned on my that Ohio State is not listed.  It was not part of the last reveal although it has an RPI of 5 and is ranked 13.  Why was it not in the reveal or the conversation?  Something I don't know about them?  My guess is that they will move in and replace Michigan, meaning our best shot is the Missouri or A&M slot.

[M T]

I don't think it likely we will pass up any of the top 10 without some meltdowns occurring that are hard to predict.  But there are 2 quite plausible pathways into the top 16 that will probably be open, maybe more.  But it all hinges on us continuing to win.  We drop a single game outside the Pac 12 tourny and we are out, in my opinion.  The number 9 would just loom way too large.  We might not even make it if we win out--there could be certain committee members who just can't stomach letting an 8 loss team host over 2 loss Green Bay, for example.

Boy, do you and I have different viewpoints! 

I see two top-10 teams we have a strong chance to pass -- UCLA & Oregon -- and that's all up to us.
First, they play each other in the regular season.  One will lose.  They also play ASU (and UCLA plays OSU) - again risks to them, but if they win it strengthens their RPI.


The Stanford team we've seen recently should win the rest of the regular season games.  Yes, this is the PAC-12 and there are few easy wins -- upsets are possible.  (Anyone know how RealTimeRPI.com can predict the higher RPI Stanford will lose two games to Cal??)  The team will have to be as focused as they've been and continue to play at the level of the last 2 weekends.

If so, I believe we get the #1 PAC-12 seed.  In the conference tourney,  UCLA & Oregon will likely play the #2 vs #3 match.  One will lose.  Stanford will have the slightly less challenging game against OSU or ASU.

If we can win the #1 vs #2/3 championship game, and I think Stanford has a real chance, it would be hard to continue ranking them ahead of Stanford.  The talk will be of how Stanford has peaked at the right time, and how the early season losses were due to injuries.

Either we will be 2-0 vs Oregon (who is 3-0 or 2-1 vs UCLA) and 1-1 vs UCLA, 
      or 2-1 vs UCLA (who is 2-1 or 1-2 vs Oregon) and 1-0 vs Oregon  (who is 1-2 or 2-1 vs UCLA)
as well as either 2-0 vs OSU & 1-1 vs ASU,    or 2-1 vs ASU and 1-0 vs OSU
and 2-0 over Cal.


If Stanford continues to play as it has in the last 4 games, we should make it to the championship game.  If we can win that, I think we've got a shot and a claim at being a top-8 team.  The politics of whether a top-8 team getting a #2 seed is something I don't know.   

I will again predict that the seeding committee will have us in the UConn bracket.  We have a history of beating them, and I think everyone but UConn/ESPN would want that.  (UConn is a juggernaut and it would take a miracle for us to beat them.  Miracles can happen, but I wouldn't bet on them.) 

-------
Should it be the case that we lose another game in the regular season, the perfect storm isn't so perfect.  We may yet have the #1 seed in the conference if either UCLA and Oregon both lose a game, (one loses to the other, while the other loses to ASU or OSU or USC).  If we win the tourney, I think we are top-16.  Definitely if we beat both UCLA & Oregon  in doing so.

If we win out the regular season, but lose the conference championship game, we may be a top-16 team (on the basis of beating OSU/ASU).

If we win out the regular season, but lose the conference semis, I don't think we are a top-16, but possibly.

[M T]

I don't think it likely we will pass up any of the top 10 without some meltdowns occurring that are hard to predict.  But there are 2 quite plausible pathways into the top 16 that will probably be open, maybe more.  But it all hinges on us continuing to win.  We drop a single game outside the Pac 12 tourny and we are out, in my opinion.  The number 9 would just loom way too large.  We might not even make it if we win out--there could be certain committee members who just can't stomach letting an 8 loss team host over 2 loss Green Bay, for example.

Boy, do you and I have different viewpoints! 

I see two top-10 teams we have a strong chance to pass -- UCLA & Oregon -- and that's all up to us.
First, they play each other in the regular season.  One will lose.  They also play ASU (and UCLA plays OSU) - again risks to them, but if they win it strengthens their RPI.


The Stanford team we've seen recently should win the rest of the regular season games.  Yes, this is the PAC-12 and there are few easy wins -- upsets are possible.  (Anyone know how RealTimeRPI.com can predict the higher RPI Stanford will lose two games to Cal??)  The team will have to be as focused as they've been and continue to play at the level of the last 2 weekends.

If so, I believe we get the #1 PAC-12 seed.  In the conference tourney,  UCLA & Oregon will likely play the #2 vs #3 match.  One will lose.  Stanford will have the slightly less challenging game against OSU or ASU.

If we can win the #1 vs #2/3 championship game, and I think Stanford has a real chance, it would be hard to continue ranking them ahead of Stanford.  The talk will be of how Stanford has peaked at the right time, and how the early season losses were due to injuries.

Either we will be 2-0 vs Oregon (who is 3-0 or 2-1 vs UCLA) and 1-1 vs UCLA, 
      or 2-1 vs UCLA (who is 2-1 or 1-2 vs Oregon) and 1-0 vs Oregon  (who is 1-2 or 2-1 vs UCLA)
as well as either 2-0 vs OSU & 1-1 vs ASU,    or 2-1 vs ASU and 1-0 vs OSU
and 2-0 over Cal.


If Stanford continues to play as it has in the last 4 games, we should make it to the championship game.  If we can win that, I think we've got a shot and a claim at being a top-8 team.  The politics of whether a top-8 team getting a #2 seed is something I don't know.   

I will again predict that the seeding committee will have us in the UConn bracket.  We have a history of beating them, and I think everyone but UConn/ESPN would want that.  (UConn is a juggernaut and it would take a miracle for us to beat them.  Miracles can happen, but I wouldn't bet on them.) 

-------
Should it be the case that we lose another game in the regular season, the perfect storm isn't so perfect.  We may yet have the #1 seed in the conference if either UCLA and Oregon both lose a game, (one loses to the other, while the other loses to ASU or OSU or USC).  If we win the tourney, I think we are top-16.  Definitely if we beat both UCLA & Oregon  in doing so.

If we win out the regular season, but lose the conference championship game, we may be a top-16 team (on the basis of beating OSU/ASU).

If we win out the regular season, but lose the conference semis, I don't think we are a top-16, but possibly.

[M T]

I don't think it likely we will pass up any of the top 10 without some meltdowns occurring that are hard to predict.  But there are 2 quite plausible pathways into the top 16 that will probably be open, maybe more.  But it all hinges on us continuing to win.  We drop a single game outside the Pac 12 tourny and we are out, in my opinion.  The number 9 would just loom way too large.  We might not even make it if we win out--there could be certain committee members who just can't stomach letting an 8 loss team host over 2 loss Green Bay, for example.

Boy, do you and I have different viewpoints! 

I see two top-10 teams we have a strong chance to pass -- UCLA & Oregon -- and that's all up to us.
First, they play each other in the regular season.  One will lose.  They also play ASU (and UCLA plays OSU) - again risks to them, but if they win it strengthens their RPI.


The Stanford team we've seen recently should win the rest of the regular season games.  Yes, this is the PAC-12 and there are few easy wins -- upsets are possible.  (Anyone know how RealTimeRPI.com can predict the higher RPI Stanford will lose two games to Cal??)  The team will have to be as focused as they've been and continue to play at the level of the last 2 weekends.

If so, I believe we get the #1 PAC-12 seed.  In the conference tourney,  UCLA & Oregon will likely play the #2 vs #3 match.  One will lose.  Stanford will have the slightly less challenging game against OSU or ASU.

If we can win the #1 vs #2/3 championship game, and I think Stanford has a real chance, it would be hard to continue ranking them ahead of Stanford.  The talk will be of how Stanford has peaked at the right time, and how the early season losses were due to injuries.

Either we will be 2-0 vs Oregon (who is 3-0 or 2-1 vs UCLA) and 1-1 vs UCLA, 
      or 2-1 vs UCLA (who is 2-1 or 1-2 vs Oregon) and 1-0 vs Oregon  (who is 1-2 or 2-1 vs UCLA)
as well as either 2-0 vs OSU & 1-1 vs ASU,    or 2-1 vs ASU and 1-0 vs OSU
and 2-0 over Cal.


If Stanford continues to play as it has in the last 4 games, we should make it to the championship game.  If we can win that, I think we've got a shot and a claim at being a top-8 team.  The politics of whether a top-8 team getting a #2 seed is something I don't know.   

I will again predict that the seeding committee will have us in the UConn bracket.  We have a history of beating them, and I think everyone but UConn/ESPN would want that.  (UConn is a juggernaut and it would take a miracle for us to beat them.  Miracles can happen, but I wouldn't bet on them.) 

-------
Should it be the case that we lose another game in the regular season, the perfect storm isn't so perfect.  We may yet have the #1 seed in the conference if either UCLA and Oregon both lose a game, (one loses to the other, while the other loses to ASU or OSU or USC).  If we win the tourney, I think we are top-16.  Definitely if we beat both UCLA & Oregon  in doing so.

If we win out the regular season, but lose the conference championship game, we may be a top-16 team (on the basis of beating OSU/ASU).

If we win out the regular season, but lose the conference semis, I don't think we are a top-16, but possibly.

[M T]

I don't think it likely we will pass up any of the top 10 without some meltdowns occurring that are hard to predict.  But there are 2 quite plausible pathways into the top 16 that will probably be open, maybe more.  But it all hinges on us continuing to win.  We drop a single game outside the Pac 12 tourny and we are out, in my opinion.  The number 9 would just loom way too large.  We might not even make it if we win out--there could be certain committee members who just can't stomach letting an 8 loss team host over 2 loss Green Bay, for example.

Boy, do you and I have different viewpoints! 

I see two top-10 teams we have a strong chance to pass -- UCLA & Oregon -- and that's all up to us.
First, they play each other in the regular season.  One will lose.  They also play ASU (and UCLA plays OSU) - again risks to them, but if they win it strengthens their RPI.


The Stanford team we've seen recently should win the rest of the regular season games.  Yes, this is the PAC-12 and there are few easy wins -- upsets are possible.  (Anyone know how RealTimeRPI.com can predict the higher RPI Stanford will lose two games to Cal??)  The team will have to be as focused as they've been and continue to play at the level of the last 2 weekends.

If so, I believe we get the #1 PAC-12 seed.  In the conference tourney,  UCLA & Oregon will likely play the #2 vs #3 match.  One will lose.  Stanford will have the slightly less challenging game against OSU or ASU.

If we can win the #1 vs #2/3 championship game, and I think Stanford has a real chance, it would be hard to continue ranking them ahead of Stanford.  The talk will be of how Stanford has peaked at the right time, and how the early season losses were due to injuries.

Either we will be 2-0 vs Oregon (who is 3-0 or 2-1 vs UCLA) and 1-1 vs UCLA, 
      or 2-1 vs UCLA (who is 2-1 or 1-2 vs Oregon) and 1-0 vs Oregon  (who is 1-2 or 2-1 vs UCLA)
as well as either 2-0 vs OSU & 1-1 vs ASU,    or 2-1 vs ASU and 1-0 vs OSU
and 2-0 over Cal.


If Stanford continues to play as it has in the last 4 games, we should make it to the championship game.  If we can win that, I think we've got a shot and a claim at being a top-8 team.  The politics of whether a top-8 team getting a #2 seed is something I don't know.   

I will again predict that the seeding committee will have us in the UConn bracket.  We have a history of beating them, and I think everyone but UConn/ESPN would want that.  (UConn is a juggernaut and it would take a miracle for us to beat them.  Miracles can happen, but I wouldn't bet on them.) 

-------
Should it be the case that we lose another game in the regular season, the perfect storm isn't so perfect.  We may yet have the #1 seed in the conference if either UCLA and Oregon both lose a game, (one loses to the other, while the other loses to ASU or OSU or USC).  If we win the tourney, I think we are top-16.  Definitely if we beat both UCLA & Oregon  in doing so.

If we win out the regular season, but lose the conference championship game, we may be a top-16 team (on the basis of beating OSU/ASU).

If we win out the regular season, but lose the conference semis, I don't think we are a top-16, but possibly.

[81alum]

You could be right, MT, and I don't think we are as far apart as you suggest.  Keep in mind that I was trying to predict whether we would make the next top-16 reveal on February 19.  Maybe I didn't make that clear.  I don't see how we could supplant UCLA or Oregon by then, since we can't play them again by that time.

When it comes to where we are actually seeded there will be more games plus conference tournaments to help, and this is where your analysis was focused. 

I'm also conscious of how foolish we will all feel if after making all of these predictions, we lose to Utah or Colorado or C al or a Washington school.  If we have one more gross under-performance like we did last fall then all predictions are off.

[81alum]

You could be right, MT, and I don't think we are as far apart as you suggest.  Keep in mind that I was trying to predict whether we would make the next top-16 reveal on February 19.  Maybe I didn't make that clear.  I don't see how we could supplant UCLA or Oregon by then, since we can't play them again by that time.

When it comes to where we are actually seeded there will be more games plus conference tournaments to help, and this is where your analysis was focused. 

I'm also conscious of how foolish we will all feel if after making all of these predictions, we lose to Utah or Colorado or C al or a Washington school.  If we have one more gross under-performance like we did last fall then all predictions are off.

[81alum]

You could be right, MT, and I don't think we are as far apart as you suggest.  Keep in mind that I was trying to predict whether we would make the next top-16 reveal on February 19.  Maybe I didn't make that clear.  I don't see how we could supplant UCLA or Oregon by then, since we can't play them again by that time.

When it comes to where we are actually seeded there will be more games plus conference tournaments to help, and this is where your analysis was focused. 

I'm also conscious of how foolish we will all feel if after making all of these predictions, we lose to Utah or Colorado or C al or a Washington school.  If we have one more gross under-performance like we did last fall then all predictions are off.

[81alum]

You could be right, MT, and I don't think we are as far apart as you suggest.  Keep in mind that I was trying to predict whether we would make the next top-16 reveal on February 19.  Maybe I didn't make that clear.  I don't see how we could supplant UCLA or Oregon by then, since we can't play them again by that time.

When it comes to where we are actually seeded there will be more games plus conference tournaments to help, and this is where your analysis was focused. 

I'm also conscious of how foolish we will all feel if after making all of these predictions, we lose to Utah or Colorado or C al or a Washington school.  If we have one more gross under-performance like we did last fall then all predictions are off.

[2006alum]

Some great points. If I were Vegas, I'd put our over/under for the next 6 games at around 5.25 wins. I share 81's view that the Washington road trip comes at a dangerous time when we're looking ahead to post-season play against a solid team that has to be hungry for their first win (WSU), and a team that is extremely physical and has a zone that can give us a hard time and potentially get our post players into foul trouble (Washington). Washington is also one of the hardest away venues to play at. A lazy, unfocused two quarters could be enough to sink us, and I think this team has a higher beta than most Tara teams, so I'd give at least a 25% of losing one of those games. As for MT's question about the RealTimeRPI predictor, that thing is not regularly updated. If you actually click on both of those games, it now predicts we will win at home by 10 and lose at C.al by 6. So I'd say there's at least a 50% chance we lose one of those two games. Add that up, and the odds of getting 6 wins is less than settling for 5.

My hope is that because we can win the Pac-12 regular season for the first time since Chiney graduated if we win out, we will be hungry. And McPhee and Johnson are starting to play like they're realizing they don't have many games left in their college careers, so that should give them some focus and motivation too.

Either way, this is a fun team to root for, and between our men's team's substantially more exciting play and our women's teams noticeable growth this season, I'm more excited about Stanford basketball than I've been in a long time. Go Card!

[2006alum]

Some great points. If I were Vegas, I'd put our over/under for the next 6 games at around 5.25 wins. I share 81's view that the Washington road trip comes at a dangerous time when we're looking ahead to post-season play against a solid team that has to be hungry for their first win (WSU), and a team that is extremely physical and has a zone that can give us a hard time and potentially get our post players into foul trouble (Washington). Washington is also one of the hardest away venues to play at. A lazy, unfocused two quarters could be enough to sink us, and I think this team has a higher beta than most Tara teams, so I'd give at least a 25% of losing one of those games. As for MT's question about the RealTimeRPI predictor, that thing is not regularly updated. If you actually click on both of those games, it now predicts we will win at home by 10 and lose at C.al by 6. So I'd say there's at least a 50% chance we lose one of those two games. Add that up, and the odds of getting 6 wins is less than settling for 5.

My hope is that because we can win the Pac-12 regular season for the first time since Chiney graduated if we win out, we will be hungry. And McPhee and Johnson are starting to play like they're realizing they don't have many games left in their college careers, so that should give them some focus and motivation too.

Either way, this is a fun team to root for, and between our men's team's substantially more exciting play and our women's teams noticeable growth this season, I'm more excited about Stanford basketball than I've been in a long time. Go Card!

[2006alum]

Some great points. If I were Vegas, I'd put our over/under for the next 6 games at around 5.25 wins. I share 81's view that the Washington road trip comes at a dangerous time when we're looking ahead to post-season play against a solid team that has to be hungry for their first win (WSU), and a team that is extremely physical and has a zone that can give us a hard time and potentially get our post players into foul trouble (Washington). Washington is also one of the hardest away venues to play at. A lazy, unfocused two quarters could be enough to sink us, and I think this team has a higher beta than most Tara teams, so I'd give at least a 25% of losing one of those games. As for MT's question about the RealTimeRPI predictor, that thing is not regularly updated. If you actually click on both of those games, it now predicts we will win at home by 10 and lose at C.al by 6. So I'd say there's at least a 50% chance we lose one of those two games. Add that up, and the odds of getting 6 wins is less than settling for 5.

My hope is that because we can win the Pac-12 regular season for the first time since Chiney graduated if we win out, we will be hungry. And McPhee and Johnson are starting to play like they're realizing they don't have many games left in their college careers, so that should give them some focus and motivation too.

Either way, this is a fun team to root for, and between our men's team's substantially more exciting play and our women's teams noticeable growth this season, I'm more excited about Stanford basketball than I've been in a long time. Go Card!

[2006alum]

Some great points. If I were Vegas, I'd put our over/under for the next 6 games at around 5.25 wins. I share 81's view that the Washington road trip comes at a dangerous time when we're looking ahead to post-season play against a solid team that has to be hungry for their first win (WSU), and a team that is extremely physical and has a zone that can give us a hard time and potentially get our post players into foul trouble (Washington). Washington is also one of the hardest away venues to play at. A lazy, unfocused two quarters could be enough to sink us, and I think this team has a higher beta than most Tara teams, so I'd give at least a 25% of losing one of those games. As for MT's question about the RealTimeRPI predictor, that thing is not regularly updated. If you actually click on both of those games, it now predicts we will win at home by 10 and lose at C.al by 6. So I'd say there's at least a 50% chance we lose one of those two games. Add that up, and the odds of getting 6 wins is less than settling for 5.

My hope is that because we can win the Pac-12 regular season for the first time since Chiney graduated if we win out, we will be hungry. And McPhee and Johnson are starting to play like they're realizing they don't have many games left in their college careers, so that should give them some focus and motivation too.

Either way, this is a fun team to root for, and between our men's team's substantially more exciting play and our women's teams noticeable growth this season, I'm more excited about Stanford basketball than I've been in a long time. Go Card!

[TheFarm07]

I agree with 2006alum that hunger to win the Pac-12 regular season title again amidst the longest drought we've had in literally decades and a sense of urgency for seniors Brit and Kaylee will definitely help.

Also I think, might help, is not to look at the remaining 6 games as ones we have to get through to win the regular season title and get to the postseason, but as opportunities to continue to improve.

We showed in the Arizona game that we can still keep our intensity against an overmatched opponent and not make those silly mistakes. We will have to focus and continue to strip away bad habits and continue to learn and improve.

We've shown a lot of improvement and grit and toughness sweeping the Oregon schools on the road, but we have to replicate that again and again and even on a higher scale, if we want to win the regular season crown, the conference tournament and make a deep run in the NCAAs.

Even if we win out, the best we can probably do is a 3 seed, I would guess. My point is, we will have to probably play a #2 AND a #1 seed to get back to the Final Four. I'm not saying we will get back to Columbus, but if we have any chance of doing that, we will have to continue to improve.

We can't be satisfied with what we did last weekend. Yes, we made great strides, but there's still improvements, such as FT shooting. Right now, Kiana seems like our second most reliable scoring option behind McPhee, because of Alanna's tendency to get in foul trouble. Can she cut down on those foul issues but still remain aggressive on the defensive end?

Because McPhee and Carrington play similar positions AND styles, DiJonai is blocked playing significant minutes and that's taking away our other explosive scorer. She only got a lot of time late in the Oregon game because Kiana was recovering from her collision.

It looks like in crunch time, Tara has settled on a lineup of Marta, Kiana, Britt, Alanna and Kaylee. Now Marta and Kaylee have not historically been scoring threats and against a better defensive team that can bottle up Britt and put their best perimeter defender on Kiana, I think a brobdingnagian lift could come from Marta continuing to be aggressive as she's shown and manufacture some of her own shots, that might open up room for the others.

[TheFarm07]

I agree with 2006alum that hunger to win the Pac-12 regular season title again amidst the longest drought we've had in literally decades and a sense of urgency for seniors Brit and Kaylee will definitely help.

Also I think, might help, is not to look at the remaining 6 games as ones we have to get through to win the regular season title and get to the postseason, but as opportunities to continue to improve.

We showed in the Arizona game that we can still keep our intensity against an overmatched opponent and not make those silly mistakes. We will have to focus and continue to strip away bad habits and continue to learn and improve.

We've shown a lot of improvement and grit and toughness sweeping the Oregon schools on the road, but we have to replicate that again and again and even on a higher scale, if we want to win the regular season crown, the conference tournament and make a deep run in the NCAAs.

Even if we win out, the best we can probably do is a 3 seed, I would guess. My point is, we will have to probably play a #2 AND a #1 seed to get back to the Final Four. I'm not saying we will get back to Columbus, but if we have any chance of doing that, we will have to continue to improve.

We can't be satisfied with what we did last weekend. Yes, we made great strides, but there's still improvements, such as FT shooting. Right now, Kiana seems like our second most reliable scoring option behind McPhee, because of Alanna's tendency to get in foul trouble. Can she cut down on those foul issues but still remain aggressive on the defensive end?

Because McPhee and Carrington play similar positions AND styles, DiJonai is blocked playing significant minutes and that's taking away our other explosive scorer. She only got a lot of time late in the Oregon game because Kiana was recovering from her collision.

It looks like in crunch time, Tara has settled on a lineup of Marta, Kiana, Britt, Alanna and Kaylee. Now Marta and Kaylee have not historically been scoring threats and against a better defensive team that can bottle up Britt and put their best perimeter defender on Kiana, I think a brobdingnagian lift could come from Marta continuing to be aggressive as she's shown and manufacture some of her own shots, that might open up room for the others.

[TheFarm07]

I agree with 2006alum that hunger to win the Pac-12 regular season title again amidst the longest drought we've had in literally decades and a sense of urgency for seniors Brit and Kaylee will definitely help.

Also I think, might help, is not to look at the remaining 6 games as ones we have to get through to win the regular season title and get to the postseason, but as opportunities to continue to improve.

We showed in the Arizona game that we can still keep our intensity against an overmatched opponent and not make those silly mistakes. We will have to focus and continue to strip away bad habits and continue to learn and improve.

We've shown a lot of improvement and grit and toughness sweeping the Oregon schools on the road, but we have to replicate that again and again and even on a higher scale, if we want to win the regular season crown, the conference tournament and make a deep run in the NCAAs.

Even if we win out, the best we can probably do is a 3 seed, I would guess. My point is, we will have to probably play a #2 AND a #1 seed to get back to the Final Four. I'm not saying we will get back to Columbus, but if we have any chance of doing that, we will have to continue to improve.

We can't be satisfied with what we did last weekend. Yes, we made great strides, but there's still improvements, such as FT shooting. Right now, Kiana seems like our second most reliable scoring option behind McPhee, because of Alanna's tendency to get in foul trouble. Can she cut down on those foul issues but still remain aggressive on the defensive end?

Because McPhee and Carrington play similar positions AND styles, DiJonai is blocked playing significant minutes and that's taking away our other explosive scorer. She only got a lot of time late in the Oregon game because Kiana was recovering from her collision.

It looks like in crunch time, Tara has settled on a lineup of Marta, Kiana, Britt, Alanna and Kaylee. Now Marta and Kaylee have not historically been scoring threats and against a better defensive team that can bottle up Britt and put their best perimeter defender on Kiana, I think a brobdingnagian lift could come from Marta continuing to be aggressive as she's shown and manufacture some of her own shots, that might open up room for the others.

[TheFarm07]

I agree with 2006alum that hunger to win the Pac-12 regular season title again amidst the longest drought we've had in literally decades and a sense of urgency for seniors Brit and Kaylee will definitely help.

Also I think, might help, is not to look at the remaining 6 games as ones we have to get through to win the regular season title and get to the postseason, but as opportunities to continue to improve.

We showed in the Arizona game that we can still keep our intensity against an overmatched opponent and not make those silly mistakes. We will have to focus and continue to strip away bad habits and continue to learn and improve.

We've shown a lot of improvement and grit and toughness sweeping the Oregon schools on the road, but we have to replicate that again and again and even on a higher scale, if we want to win the regular season crown, the conference tournament and make a deep run in the NCAAs.

Even if we win out, the best we can probably do is a 3 seed, I would guess. My point is, we will have to probably play a #2 AND a #1 seed to get back to the Final Four. I'm not saying we will get back to Columbus, but if we have any chance of doing that, we will have to continue to improve.

We can't be satisfied with what we did last weekend. Yes, we made great strides, but there's still improvements, such as FT shooting. Right now, Kiana seems like our second most reliable scoring option behind McPhee, because of Alanna's tendency to get in foul trouble. Can she cut down on those foul issues but still remain aggressive on the defensive end?

Because McPhee and Carrington play similar positions AND styles, DiJonai is blocked playing significant minutes and that's taking away our other explosive scorer. She only got a lot of time late in the Oregon game because Kiana was recovering from her collision.

It looks like in crunch time, Tara has settled on a lineup of Marta, Kiana, Britt, Alanna and Kaylee. Now Marta and Kaylee have not historically been scoring threats and against a better defensive team that can bottle up Britt and put their best perimeter defender on Kiana, I think a brobdingnagian lift could come from Marta continuing to be aggressive as she's shown and manufacture some of her own shots, that might open up room for the others.