Posts: 53
Threads: 3
Joined: Jan 2017
Even if every one of our swimmers is DQ'd tonight, we should win. Right now we have 414 points, cal has 268 points and Texas A&M has 186 points.Â
Per swimswam Cal has 4 swimmers in A finals and 2 swimmers in the B finals (although i only saw 3 swimmers in the A finals when looking at the prelim results). Texas A&M has six swimmers in A finals and 1 swimmer in the B finals (but four of the A finals swimmers are all in the 200 breaststroke). none of A&M, Cal and Stanford has anyone in diving, and each has a team in the 400 free relay. A&M also has 2 swimmers in the 1650 free, but they are far down the list.
By comparison, we have 4 swimmers in A finals (including the top 2 in the 200 fly) and 4 swimmers in B finals plus 3 potential scorers (including Ledecky) in the 1650 and the top prelim time in the 400 free relay.
Back of the envelope, I think the max Cal can get is 138 points (they win four A finals plus the relay for 120 points, plus get two 9th place finishes--but that's wrong since they don't have anyone in the 200 breast or 1650 free and there are only five individual events, so it's probably a max of 118 points), and A&M has too big a deficit. We are probably looking at the second highest margin of victory in an NCAA swim meet, even outperforming the psyche sheet. Pretty amazing team.
So the only possible scenario I see for us losing is a bunch of retroactive disqualifications, which won't happen.
we lose a ton this year (manuel, hu andhowe, among others), but bring in by far the number 1 recruiting class. If ledecky and eastin return, we should be the favorites again.
Thanks.