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04-16-2020, 02:16 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-16-2020, 02:21 PM by
Snorlax94.)
I’m actually hopeful that much of the economy can rebound by Q3.
It depends on the sector — some will be fine, others will be devastated.
AMC theatres may go bankrupt. Restaurants that are the most reliant on high turnover of large groups of people may struggle the most (especially if family-style, like Buca di Beppo). I don’t see why manufacturing won’t be back by Fall — it’s not like the virus decreases our stock of Capital, like factories or machinery. Large events like travel, concerts, conferences, and in-person sports attendance events may be closed for at least a year. Sales of items with a long sales cycle, like selling large enterprise software systems, will on average take a hit because of the uncertainty.
But I actually could see some restaurants, small entertainment venues, and domestic travel doing better than expected. Folks on the Cardboard are generally an informed, cautious bunch, but if the cfr for people under 40 ends up below .1%, I think a lot of people will resume going out.
One way I think the US is in a uniquely weak position is that a high percentage of the US workforce work in service industries and/or small businesses, both of which will on average be hit harder. Weirdly, I think China’s economy which is more manufacturing-based will be in a stronger position.
But overall, I think things can be OK by fall, averaged across all sectors, assuming we don’t royally botch things up, which may be the case. I am more optimistic the CA economy will be doing OK on average by fall, and sectors that are doing well (tech, groceries, delivery) should help out the hardest-hit sectors, which may occur via a more generous safety net now and higher taxes later.