[chrisk]

Apple has now re-closed a total of 77 stores

Nordstrom has laid off another 10-20k workers (about 25% of total)

SF apartment rents in June were down 11.8% from a year ago

Expect a big fiscal package later this month
(How will it balance the interests of landlords and tenants?)

[chrisk]

Apple has now re-closed a total of 77 stores

Nordstrom has laid off another 10-20k workers (about 25% of total)

SF apartment rents in June were down 11.8% from a year ago

Expect a big fiscal package later this month
(How will it balance the interests of landlords and tenants?)

[BostonCard]

Will be interesting to see the June unemployment tomorrow.

BC

[BostonCard]

Will be interesting to see the June unemployment tomorrow.

BC

[chrisk]

Will be interesting to see the June unemployment tomorrow.

BC

With 4.8 million new jobs added, the unemployment rate dropped to 11.1%.

However, the situation has likely deteriorated since mid-June and certainly will in early July, with the rollback of reopenings.

[chrisk]

Will be interesting to see the June unemployment tomorrow.

BC

With 4.8 million new jobs added, the unemployment rate dropped to 11.1%.

However, the situation has likely deteriorated since mid-June and certainly will in early July, with the rollback of reopenings.

[Farm93]

Will be interesting to see the June unemployment tomorrow.

BC

With 4.8 million new jobs added, the unemployment rate dropped to 11.1%.

However, the situation has likely deteriorated since mid-June and certainly will in early a July, with the rollback of reopenings.

The June unemployment number would have been great news if it was built on a better foundation.    The USA was quick to rehire, but did not have the plans to keep COVID down.

I am just stunned when I read some of the stories in the media this week.
People testing positive for COVID in late June suspect their exposure may have happened when they went to a bar, or a graduation party, or a gym with hundreds of people at the indoor events, obviously without masks.   

How could people think those activities would be a good idea?
These new COVID patients often say things like they thought it was over, or they didn't think things would open up if it wasn't safe.
Yikes -

These few got sick, but they were in places with hundreds of people so they were not the only ones thinking COVID was over.
If that surge in activity was common in the USA then economic hiring news released today seems logical.   However, it seems unsustainable with COVID still in our communities.  Q3 could be miserable for economic data and COVID cases.

[Farm93]

Will be interesting to see the June unemployment tomorrow.

BC

With 4.8 million new jobs added, the unemployment rate dropped to 11.1%.

However, the situation has likely deteriorated since mid-June and certainly will in early a July, with the rollback of reopenings.

The June unemployment number would have been great news if it was built on a better foundation.    The USA was quick to rehire, but did not have the plans to keep COVID down.

I am just stunned when I read some of the stories in the media this week.
People testing positive for COVID in late June suspect their exposure may have happened when they went to a bar, or a graduation party, or a gym with hundreds of people at the indoor events, obviously without masks.   

How could people think those activities would be a good idea?
These new COVID patients often say things like they thought it was over, or they didn't think things would open up if it wasn't safe.
Yikes -

These few got sick, but they were in places with hundreds of people so they were not the only ones thinking COVID was over.
If that surge in activity was common in the USA then economic hiring news released today seems logical.   However, it seems unsustainable with COVID still in our communities.  Q3 could be miserable for economic data and COVID cases.

[burger]

I am just stunned when I read some of the stories in the media this week.

People testing positive for COVID in late June suspect their exposure may have happened when they went to a bar, or a graduation party, or a gym with hundreds of people at the indoor events, obviously without masks.   

How could people think those activities would be a good idea?

These new COVID patients often say things like they thought it was over, or they didn't think things would open up if it wasn't safe.

Yikes -

These few got sick, but they were in places with hundreds of people so they were not the only ones thinking COVID was over.

If that surge in activity was common in the USA then economic hiring news released today seems logical.   However, it seems unsustainable with COVID still in our communities.  Q3 could be miserable for economic data and COVID cases.

I'm not surprised at all people thought it was over.  Most people pay little attention to the news or get their news filtered through social media.  When they heard "bars reopening," they got the signal that it was okay to hang out with their friends and families again.  People were not getting clear signals of the need to maintain distancing or wear masks.  If you can drink in a bar, surely it's okay to go to that graduation party, right?

That's why closing the bars and restaurants again was a necessary correction even if there wasn't a ton of transmission happening in those places (though see this https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/us/michig...index.html).  Ditto for closing the beaches this weekend.

People basically stopped being scared of the virus.  I think the only way to change that is to reimpose some of the restrictions that worked the first time around.

[burger]

I am just stunned when I read some of the stories in the media this week.

People testing positive for COVID in late June suspect their exposure may have happened when they went to a bar, or a graduation party, or a gym with hundreds of people at the indoor events, obviously without masks.   

How could people think those activities would be a good idea?

These new COVID patients often say things like they thought it was over, or they didn't think things would open up if it wasn't safe.

Yikes -

These few got sick, but they were in places with hundreds of people so they were not the only ones thinking COVID was over.

If that surge in activity was common in the USA then economic hiring news released today seems logical.   However, it seems unsustainable with COVID still in our communities.  Q3 could be miserable for economic data and COVID cases.

I'm not surprised at all people thought it was over.  Most people pay little attention to the news or get their news filtered through social media.  When they heard "bars reopening," they got the signal that it was okay to hang out with their friends and families again.  People were not getting clear signals of the need to maintain distancing or wear masks.  If you can drink in a bar, surely it's okay to go to that graduation party, right?

That's why closing the bars and restaurants again was a necessary correction even if there wasn't a ton of transmission happening in those places (though see this https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/us/michig...index.html).  Ditto for closing the beaches this weekend.

People basically stopped being scared of the virus.  I think the only way to change that is to reimpose some of the restrictions that worked the first time around.

[Mick]

Today's initial unemployment claims hit 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the prior week.  The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate didn't change at 13.2%.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The number of people considered insured unemployment was 19,290,000, an increase of 59,000 from the prior week.  That's the DoL page 1 number.  the DoL page three number is the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending June 13, which was 31,491,627, an increase of 916,722 from the previous week. There were 1,582,309 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.

Almost 5 million new jobs:
https://apnews.com/cddec060d38eacbb708a47120d34af51

But the U. S. Economic recovery is stumbling:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e...4328K?il=0

Dollar's dominance will fade away:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-forex...00015ab44e

[Mick]

Today's initial unemployment claims hit 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the prior week.  The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate didn't change at 13.2%.

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The number of people considered insured unemployment was 19,290,000, an increase of 59,000 from the prior week.  That's the DoL page 1 number.  the DoL page three number is the total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending June 13, which was 31,491,627, an increase of 916,722 from the previous week. There were 1,582,309 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.

Almost 5 million new jobs:
https://apnews.com/cddec060d38eacbb708a47120d34af51

But the U. S. Economic recovery is stumbling:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e...4328K?il=0

Dollar's dominance will fade away:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-forex...00015ab44e

[Goose]

I'm not surprised at all people thought it was over.  Most people pay little attention to the news or get their news filtered through social media.  When they heard "bars reopening," they got the signal that it was okay to hang out with their friends and families again.  People were not getting clear signals of the need to maintain distancing or wear masks.  If you can drink in a bar, surely it's okay to go to that graduation party, right?

Burger, you may be correct, but if you are the society is doomed anyway. We have way too may people who are not capable of functioning in a society as complex as we have. I don't buy it. Those people knew they were taking a risk. It was an acceptable risk to them, so they did it. The rolled the dice and lost. When asked, they didn't want to look stupid, so they fell back to "I didn't know any better". They still look stupid to you and me, but that was better than the truth. Also, my dog ate the homework and I don't recall.

[Goose]

I'm not surprised at all people thought it was over.  Most people pay little attention to the news or get their news filtered through social media.  When they heard "bars reopening," they got the signal that it was okay to hang out with their friends and families again.  People were not getting clear signals of the need to maintain distancing or wear masks.  If you can drink in a bar, surely it's okay to go to that graduation party, right?

Burger, you may be correct, but if you are the society is doomed anyway. We have way too may people who are not capable of functioning in a society as complex as we have. I don't buy it. Those people knew they were taking a risk. It was an acceptable risk to them, so they did it. The rolled the dice and lost. When asked, they didn't want to look stupid, so they fell back to "I didn't know any better". They still look stupid to you and me, but that was better than the truth. Also, my dog ate the homework and I don't recall.

[BostonCard]

This chart was making the rounds during the Great Recession.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/calculatedrisk/status/1279043049692119040?s=21[/tweet]

Stunning to see how fast the jobs were shed and how quickly they have recovered from the bottom.  The questions is whether the recent spate of infections leads to a double dip, or if the jobs continue to come back, or if some subset of the job losses are made permanent.

I honestly have no idea how long it will take to get back to where we were in February 2020.  The trajectory back is steep now, and I hope it stays that way, though I think it will flatten out considerably, so that getting back from -9% to 0 will take a lot longer than going from -14% to -9%.  I just hope it’s not almost 80 months, like the Great Recession.

BC

[BostonCard]

This chart was making the rounds during the Great Recession.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/calculatedrisk/status/1279043049692119040?s=21[/tweet]

Stunning to see how fast the jobs were shed and how quickly they have recovered from the bottom.  The questions is whether the recent spate of infections leads to a double dip, or if the jobs continue to come back, or if some subset of the job losses are made permanent.

I honestly have no idea how long it will take to get back to where we were in February 2020.  The trajectory back is steep now, and I hope it stays that way, though I think it will flatten out considerably, so that getting back from -9% to 0 will take a lot longer than going from -14% to -9%.  I just hope it’s not almost 80 months, like the Great Recession.

BC

[Mick]

Stunning to see how fast the jobs were shed and how quickly they have recovered from the bottom.  The questions is whether the recent spate of infections leads to a double dip, or if the jobs continue to come back, or if some subset of the job losses are made permanent.

I honestly have no idea how long it will take to get back to where we were in February 2020.  The trajectory back is steep now, and I hope it stays that way, though I think it will flatten out considerably, so that getting back from -9% to 0 will take a lot longer than going from -14% to -9%.  I just hope it’s not almost 80 months, like the Great Recession.

BC

American companies hadn't shed significant numbers of employees since the '07-'10 losses.  In the decade since, few of these companies tested efficiencies at the level to which they've been forced during COVID-19.  For example, we're all working from home now.  Do American companies need as much commercial real estate and all the attendant costs?  Second example, do we need to dine out as much?  I don't know about you all, but Mrs. Mick is a clean/healthy cook and I've lost 25 pounds since SiP.  Third example, we buy online virtually everything we don't ingest.  Can't remember the last time I was in a store.  I used to travel 2-3 days a week, I haven't been on a flight or a train since March 13, and I don't intend to do so.

Retail, offices, transportation, leisure, hospitality, dining.  Any reason to think any of them will return to their former levels.

My firm furloughed about 20% of our staff.  Yes, we survived.  Probably won't thrive, we cut some significant capability and we did it with an axe, not a scalpel.  Our CXOs were recently asked to evaluate my furloughed staff into four categories: must have/should have/nice to have/don't want back.  And incidentally, we have no current plans to bring back anyone, though we're performing financially well, within tolerable guidelines.

I don't consider any of this a good sign for long term employment or economic success.

[Mick]

Stunning to see how fast the jobs were shed and how quickly they have recovered from the bottom.  The questions is whether the recent spate of infections leads to a double dip, or if the jobs continue to come back, or if some subset of the job losses are made permanent.

I honestly have no idea how long it will take to get back to where we were in February 2020.  The trajectory back is steep now, and I hope it stays that way, though I think it will flatten out considerably, so that getting back from -9% to 0 will take a lot longer than going from -14% to -9%.  I just hope it’s not almost 80 months, like the Great Recession.

BC

American companies hadn't shed significant numbers of employees since the '07-'10 losses.  In the decade since, few of these companies tested efficiencies at the level to which they've been forced during COVID-19.  For example, we're all working from home now.  Do American companies need as much commercial real estate and all the attendant costs?  Second example, do we need to dine out as much?  I don't know about you all, but Mrs. Mick is a clean/healthy cook and I've lost 25 pounds since SiP.  Third example, we buy online virtually everything we don't ingest.  Can't remember the last time I was in a store.  I used to travel 2-3 days a week, I haven't been on a flight or a train since March 13, and I don't intend to do so.

Retail, offices, transportation, leisure, hospitality, dining.  Any reason to think any of them will return to their former levels.

My firm furloughed about 20% of our staff.  Yes, we survived.  Probably won't thrive, we cut some significant capability and we did it with an axe, not a scalpel.  Our CXOs were recently asked to evaluate my furloughed staff into four categories: must have/should have/nice to have/don't want back.  And incidentally, we have no current plans to bring back anyone, though we're performing financially well, within tolerable guidelines.

I don't consider any of this a good sign for long term employment or economic success.