11-05-2021, 03:35 AM
(11-04-2021, 05:43 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:(11-04-2021, 02:11 PM)george Wrote:(11-04-2021, 02:48 AM)Austroturf Wrote: On another note, as I write this post, there are fully 7 out of 16 Cardboard members predicting a Cardinal victory tomorrow. Is this pure homerism, or do the 7 of you know something the rest of us are ignorant of?
(11-04-2021, 08:24 AM)Papa John Wrote:
Some of us vote with our hearts, not our brains.
Definitely put me in the "vote with our hearts camp". Interestingly, an early version of the rules proposed that participants should be penalized -10 points for picking against Stanford. But actually, if we care about declaring the person who makes the most accurate predictions the winner, we may need to build in a bulwark against our proclivity for picking the Cardinal even in the face of strong data suggesting they don't have a chance.
Don't want to change the rules mid-season, but next year, we should probably place a larger premium on getting the winning team right. It won't prevent me from picking our beloved squad to win, but I don't think that I should be in 7th place having picked the wrong winner in 5 out of 8 games.
I'm voting with my heart, too. And I expect to fall way down the list this week, because Utah is good at everything we're not.
At the same time, the current spread on this board (Utah -10) is even more pessimistic than the Vegas spread (Utah -7.5). If you take out the blatant homers like Papa John, george, and me, the CARDboard spread would probably be something like -17 points.
I ask - is it possible we're predicting irrationally and emotionally not just for our team, but against our team?
I'm -17 in my mind, but I'm +1 in my heart.
Stanford 28, Utah 27.
I sure hope you are right. Nothing I would like to see more. But our current line play makes me a total pessimist regarding our offense (can we even get to 28 points without at least three or more take-aways with the attendant short fields and potentially a pick six?). And while the defense has had a few bright moments, the line is also porous, and our backfield is often burned. Still, holding Utah to 27 points is more reasonable than Stanford scoring 28. Since I can still want Stanford to win "in my heart", but don't see the cold, hard data supporting such an outcome, I pick with my reason, then "root" the other way.


