(11-06-2011, 06:53 PM)iyengar06 link Wrote:The bigger question is whether we would pass an undefeated Oklahoma State, which doesn't play a championship game this year.
No!
Care to bet? I will put $250,000 on that one. Undefeated OK State goes in ahead of undefeated Stanford almost every single time. OK State is #1 in the computers NOW and will only get stronger with a win against Oklahoma. Assume that Stanford ends as a pure #2 in both human polls, and OK State is a pure #3 in both polls. As the votes matter, it will not be enough to just be a few votes ahead of OK State, Stanford would need every single #2 vote (unlikely). This maximum human vote spread would allow Stanford to be 2 slots behind OK State in the computer polls, not more than 2. Even this is a stretch unless OK State starts winning ugly, but let's run it out.
LSU would need to pass OK State in the computers. That could happen as Arkansas and the SEC East would be good for LSU. The problem is 'Bama. If 'Bama has one loss they will probably stay ahead of Stanford, but behind OK State. That alone is enough. This assumes that Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Boise State all go below Stanford. And that might not happen, but all it would take is Bama.
In any event a pure sweep of #2 human votes is really unlikely, so the probable computer deficit (Bama) would leave Stanford behind OK State.
Stanford would need to finish right behind Ok State in the computer polls, while having a big advantage in the human polls. This is possible...IF....LSU is the clear #1 ahead of Ok State. And the others from AQ conferences in between (Bama, Arkansas, Oklahoma) lose, Stanford passes Boise in the computers, AND Stanford looks so good crushing opponents that almost every human voter places Stanford at #2.
It is a big set of hypotheticals. But none of them matter if Stanford does not beat Oregon.Â