The Stanford men continue to tread water as they split their Beaver State road trip last weekend. The Cardinal are 15-10, 8-7 in conference; they are now tied for 7th with Colorado, who at the moment holds the tie-breaker and has gone on a three-game winning streak. But before Stanford plays Colorado on Saturday, they face up with Utah, one of the two conference bottom-feeders that Stanford plays only once during the regular season. The Runnin' Utes are living in a be-careful-what-you-wish-for moment, as they fired long-time head coach Larry Krystkowiak after last season. In 10 seasons, Krystkowiak went 183-139 and took the Utes to 3 NIT and 2 NCAA tournament appearances from 2014-18. But in his final three seasons, Krystkowiak's teams went 17–14 (3rd), 16–15 (T–8th) and 12–13 (8th). So Utah hired Craig Smith, who had just taken Utah State to 3 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances (well, technically 2 since the 2020 tournament was cancelled, but by then USU had already won their conference tournament for the automatic bid). To say that Smith's inaugural season has not gone according to plan for the Utes would be just a bit of an understatement.
Smith's UU team is 9-16 overall and 2-13 in conference yet, somehow, is in 11th place thanks to Oregon State's even worse nightmare of a season. The Utes do have conference wins over Cal and Oregon State, and, to their credit have been competitive in their previous four games: 4-point loss @ UW, 25-point win vs Oregon State, 3-point loss vs Oregon, and a 5-point loss @ Colorado. I'm sure they are looking at the Bay Area trip as a chance for a sweep, given that Stanford is inconsistent and they've already defeated a bad Cal team.
As one would expect from a 2-13 team, Utah doesn't do much well. In terms of team stats in conference play, they are 3rd in 3-pt FG % made and 1st in FT %. However, they are 8th in net rebounding (-1.4 per game), 9th in forcing turnovers (11.1 per game) and 11th in points allowed (75 per game). They are also 0-9 in true road games.
Utah is led by Jr Center Brandon Carlson, who is the only player averaging double figures at 12.4 points per game. Since December 1, Carlson has endured an ankle injury, positive Covid test and appendicitis! But he should be at full strength for Thursday's game--he scored 25 against Colorado last weekend--so Stanford might have a hard time stopping him.
Last week I mentioned that Stanford had a slight chance to finish fourth in the regular season standings and earn a first-round bye in the conference tournament. But that chance was predicated on USC losing at least four games. Alas, the Trojans beat UCLA last weekend, so the chance is now miniscule, but mathematically possible. Here's what would have to happen:
10-4 Oregon would have to go 2-4 or worse in its last six games @ Arizona schools, vs LA schools, @ Washington schools. But I have no idea how the tiebreaker would work, so we might need Oregon to go 1-5 in its last six games. No way this happens to a Dana Altman team.
OR
10-4 USC would have to go 2-4 or worse in its last six games vs Washington schools, @ Oregon schools, vs UA, @ UCLA. Stanford wins the tiebreaker. Highly unlikely, but USC can't be that good since they lost to Stanford twice, right?
OR
9-4 UCLA would have to go 2-5 or worse in its last seven games vs Washington schools, vs ASU, @ Oregon schools, @ UW, vs USC. UCLA wins the tiebreaker. Dream on, Cardinal fans.
AND
8-5 UW would have to go 4-3 or worse @ LA schools, @ WSU, vs WSU, vs UCLA, vs Oregon schools. I think this is likely, but I don't know how the tiebreaker works, so we might need UW to go 3-4 or worse. Not out of the realm of possibility.
AND
7-6 WSU would have to go 5-2 or worse @ LA schools, vs UW, @ UW, @ OSU, vs Oregon schools. This highly likely, but again, I don't know how the tiebreaker works, so we might need WSU to go 4-3 or worse. Still likely.
AND
8-7 Colorado would have to lose to Stanford (obviously)
AND
Stanford needs to go 4-1 (we're not winning at Arizona, no way) with wins vs mountain schools, @ Cal, @ ASU
So, yeah, Stanford's not going to get to fourth place by regular season's end. Realistically, there are no more must-win games, at least not in terms of achieving the twin goals of securing an NCAA tournament bid or even a first-round conference tournament bye via regular season play. Having said that, a home loss to the Utes might just be the worst loss in Haase's tenure. If there's a worse loss, I don't want to know.
But since I want to finish this post with a smile, I note that ESPN's BPI gives Stanford a 79% probability of defeating the Utes and the promotion for Thursday's game is the Light-Up Wand Giveaway. Oh, and this weekend is an opportunity for Harrison Ingram to win yet another Pac-12 Freshman of the Week award.
Smith's UU team is 9-16 overall and 2-13 in conference yet, somehow, is in 11th place thanks to Oregon State's even worse nightmare of a season. The Utes do have conference wins over Cal and Oregon State, and, to their credit have been competitive in their previous four games: 4-point loss @ UW, 25-point win vs Oregon State, 3-point loss vs Oregon, and a 5-point loss @ Colorado. I'm sure they are looking at the Bay Area trip as a chance for a sweep, given that Stanford is inconsistent and they've already defeated a bad Cal team.
As one would expect from a 2-13 team, Utah doesn't do much well. In terms of team stats in conference play, they are 3rd in 3-pt FG % made and 1st in FT %. However, they are 8th in net rebounding (-1.4 per game), 9th in forcing turnovers (11.1 per game) and 11th in points allowed (75 per game). They are also 0-9 in true road games.
Utah is led by Jr Center Brandon Carlson, who is the only player averaging double figures at 12.4 points per game. Since December 1, Carlson has endured an ankle injury, positive Covid test and appendicitis! But he should be at full strength for Thursday's game--he scored 25 against Colorado last weekend--so Stanford might have a hard time stopping him.
Last week I mentioned that Stanford had a slight chance to finish fourth in the regular season standings and earn a first-round bye in the conference tournament. But that chance was predicated on USC losing at least four games. Alas, the Trojans beat UCLA last weekend, so the chance is now miniscule, but mathematically possible. Here's what would have to happen:
10-4 Oregon would have to go 2-4 or worse in its last six games @ Arizona schools, vs LA schools, @ Washington schools. But I have no idea how the tiebreaker would work, so we might need Oregon to go 1-5 in its last six games. No way this happens to a Dana Altman team.
OR
10-4 USC would have to go 2-4 or worse in its last six games vs Washington schools, @ Oregon schools, vs UA, @ UCLA. Stanford wins the tiebreaker. Highly unlikely, but USC can't be that good since they lost to Stanford twice, right?
OR
9-4 UCLA would have to go 2-5 or worse in its last seven games vs Washington schools, vs ASU, @ Oregon schools, @ UW, vs USC. UCLA wins the tiebreaker. Dream on, Cardinal fans.
AND
8-5 UW would have to go 4-3 or worse @ LA schools, @ WSU, vs WSU, vs UCLA, vs Oregon schools. I think this is likely, but I don't know how the tiebreaker works, so we might need UW to go 3-4 or worse. Not out of the realm of possibility.
AND
7-6 WSU would have to go 5-2 or worse @ LA schools, vs UW, @ UW, @ OSU, vs Oregon schools. This highly likely, but again, I don't know how the tiebreaker works, so we might need WSU to go 4-3 or worse. Still likely.
AND
8-7 Colorado would have to lose to Stanford (obviously)
AND
Stanford needs to go 4-1 (we're not winning at Arizona, no way) with wins vs mountain schools, @ Cal, @ ASU
So, yeah, Stanford's not going to get to fourth place by regular season's end. Realistically, there are no more must-win games, at least not in terms of achieving the twin goals of securing an NCAA tournament bid or even a first-round conference tournament bye via regular season play. Having said that, a home loss to the Utes might just be the worst loss in Haase's tenure. If there's a worse loss, I don't want to know.
But since I want to finish this post with a smile, I note that ESPN's BPI gives Stanford a 79% probability of defeating the Utes and the promotion for Thursday's game is the Light-Up Wand Giveaway. Oh, and this weekend is an opportunity for Harrison Ingram to win yet another Pac-12 Freshman of the Week award.
If there's one thing people have learned in Berkeley, it's that you can't put "Cal football" and "Rose Bowl" in the same sentence. The words just don't fit. You'd be better off linking "covered wagons" with "Mars travel." (Bruce Jenkins, Cal '70, SF Chronicle, Nov. 11, 2017)
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