04-29-2022, 12:34 PM
There is no doubt Stanford's OL play the last five years has massively deteriorated compared to the OL play from the previous five years (the previous nearly ten years actually). Definitely a really, really big part of the story of Stanford's decline in recent years. I wouldn't argue if one said it was the biggest. It's probably that and the deterioration of the defense generally.
But when I say Stanford's OL was good to slightly sub-par in run blocking three of the last five years, I am trying to be empirical. I pointed out the line yards stat earlier and my reference was to how we ranked in run blocking in three of the last five years. For those not familiar, this is a Football Outsiders advanced metric for run blocking. Offensive line is notoriously difficult for fans to evaluate, as the untrained eye will usually focus on the ball and have difficulty disaggregating the individual performances to assess who played well or poorly on a given play. That is why I appreciate having more objective metrics provided by Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus.
In my judgment, the metrics by those outfits pretty clearly reinforce the narrative we've built based on our naked eyes that Stanford's OL play has deteriorated over the last five years compared to prior. Here are the Line Yards rankings (again, a run blocking metric) for every Pac-12 team each year Gould has been on staff (numbers correspond to years working backward, so 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017):
Arizona - 72, 70, 37, 26, 30
Arizona State - 3, 2, 86, 63, 66
Cal - 6, 69, 76, 29, 115
Colorado - 106, 101, 25, 116, 70
Oregon - 2, 37, 52, 64, 20
Oregon State - 1, 7, 36, 119, 120
Stanford - 126, 23, 58, 114, 74
UCLA - 10, 39, 65, 56, 105
USC - 38, 109, 100, 100, 38
Utah - 21, 79, 31, 47, 92
Washington - 92, 63, 41, 66, 33
Washington State - 95, 52, 30, 94, 28
This allows a rough run blocking ranking across the Pac-12 for this span (I provide both average and median by rank based on median):
1. Oregon - 35 average, 37 median
2. Arizona - 47 average, 37 median
3. Oregon State - 56.6 average, 36 median
4. Utah - 54 average, 47 median
5. Arizona State - 44 average, 63 median
6. UCLA - 55 average, 56 median
7. Washington State - 59.8 average, 52 median
8. Washington - 59 average, 63 median
9. Cal - 59 average, 69 median
10. Stanford - 79 average, 74 median
11. USC - 77 average, 100 median
12. Colorado - 83.6 average, 101 median
10th best in run blocking is, of course, really not good. Interestingly, this Football Outsiders judgment of our run blocking aligns very closely with our run game's statistical output - 10th or 11th in yards per career each of the last four years.
To complete this picture of how much blame to assign to OL versus running back, let's look at Pac-12 ranks in yards per carry the last five years. Using the same methodology as above, here are the 2017-2021 Pac-12 run game rankings:
Arizona - 100, 71, 50, 30, 1
Arizona State - 25, 2, 119, 41, 85
Cal - 33, 105, 113, 78, 108
Colorado - 107, 47, 80, 103, 102
Oregon - 13, 33, 38, 63, 19
Oregon State - 12, 16, 54, 97, 86
Stanford - 117, 77, 108, 112, 6
UCLA - 32, 25, 107, 83, 105
USC - 61, 114, 91, 87, 40
Utah - 2, 24, 43, 57, 81
Washington - 120, 56, 78, 65, 25
Washington State - 88, 44, 76, 117, 129
That renders the following rough run game rankings for this span:
1. Oregon - 33.2 average, 33 median
2. Utah - 41.4 average, 43 median
3. Arizona State - 54.4 average, 41 median
4. Arizona - 50.4 average, 50 median
5. Oregon State - 53 average, 54 average
6. Washington - 68.8 average, 65 median
7. UCLA - 70.4 average, 83 median
8. USC - 78.6 average, 87 median
9. Washington State - 90.8 average, 88 median
10. Colorado - 87.8 average, 102 median
11. Stanford - 84 average, 108 median
12. Cal - 87.4 average, 105 median
My attempts at ranking here try to account for both average and median for a full picture, but that's arbitrary. If I ranked by median, Stanford would be dead last.
Ultimately, I think the bottom line is that Stanford's run blocking has been bad (10th in the conference) and the overall run game has been, if anything, a bit worse, arguably the worst in the conference. This suggests failure by the offensive line and even worse failure by the running backs. Note how markedly better the Colorado and USC run games have been despite Football Outsiders judging their run blocking to be even worse than Stanford's.
Outside of the context of an idle message board debate, the real bottom line is what a Pac-12 assistant said in The Athletic article: Stanford can't run the ball worth a s!&@.
But when I say Stanford's OL was good to slightly sub-par in run blocking three of the last five years, I am trying to be empirical. I pointed out the line yards stat earlier and my reference was to how we ranked in run blocking in three of the last five years. For those not familiar, this is a Football Outsiders advanced metric for run blocking. Offensive line is notoriously difficult for fans to evaluate, as the untrained eye will usually focus on the ball and have difficulty disaggregating the individual performances to assess who played well or poorly on a given play. That is why I appreciate having more objective metrics provided by Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus.
In my judgment, the metrics by those outfits pretty clearly reinforce the narrative we've built based on our naked eyes that Stanford's OL play has deteriorated over the last five years compared to prior. Here are the Line Yards rankings (again, a run blocking metric) for every Pac-12 team each year Gould has been on staff (numbers correspond to years working backward, so 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017):
Arizona - 72, 70, 37, 26, 30
Arizona State - 3, 2, 86, 63, 66
Cal - 6, 69, 76, 29, 115
Colorado - 106, 101, 25, 116, 70
Oregon - 2, 37, 52, 64, 20
Oregon State - 1, 7, 36, 119, 120
Stanford - 126, 23, 58, 114, 74
UCLA - 10, 39, 65, 56, 105
USC - 38, 109, 100, 100, 38
Utah - 21, 79, 31, 47, 92
Washington - 92, 63, 41, 66, 33
Washington State - 95, 52, 30, 94, 28
This allows a rough run blocking ranking across the Pac-12 for this span (I provide both average and median by rank based on median):
1. Oregon - 35 average, 37 median
2. Arizona - 47 average, 37 median
3. Oregon State - 56.6 average, 36 median
4. Utah - 54 average, 47 median
5. Arizona State - 44 average, 63 median
6. UCLA - 55 average, 56 median
7. Washington State - 59.8 average, 52 median
8. Washington - 59 average, 63 median
9. Cal - 59 average, 69 median
10. Stanford - 79 average, 74 median
11. USC - 77 average, 100 median
12. Colorado - 83.6 average, 101 median
10th best in run blocking is, of course, really not good. Interestingly, this Football Outsiders judgment of our run blocking aligns very closely with our run game's statistical output - 10th or 11th in yards per career each of the last four years.
To complete this picture of how much blame to assign to OL versus running back, let's look at Pac-12 ranks in yards per carry the last five years. Using the same methodology as above, here are the 2017-2021 Pac-12 run game rankings:
Arizona - 100, 71, 50, 30, 1
Arizona State - 25, 2, 119, 41, 85
Cal - 33, 105, 113, 78, 108
Colorado - 107, 47, 80, 103, 102
Oregon - 13, 33, 38, 63, 19
Oregon State - 12, 16, 54, 97, 86
Stanford - 117, 77, 108, 112, 6
UCLA - 32, 25, 107, 83, 105
USC - 61, 114, 91, 87, 40
Utah - 2, 24, 43, 57, 81
Washington - 120, 56, 78, 65, 25
Washington State - 88, 44, 76, 117, 129
That renders the following rough run game rankings for this span:
1. Oregon - 33.2 average, 33 median
2. Utah - 41.4 average, 43 median
3. Arizona State - 54.4 average, 41 median
4. Arizona - 50.4 average, 50 median
5. Oregon State - 53 average, 54 average
6. Washington - 68.8 average, 65 median
7. UCLA - 70.4 average, 83 median
8. USC - 78.6 average, 87 median
9. Washington State - 90.8 average, 88 median
10. Colorado - 87.8 average, 102 median
11. Stanford - 84 average, 108 median
12. Cal - 87.4 average, 105 median
My attempts at ranking here try to account for both average and median for a full picture, but that's arbitrary. If I ranked by median, Stanford would be dead last.
Ultimately, I think the bottom line is that Stanford's run blocking has been bad (10th in the conference) and the overall run game has been, if anything, a bit worse, arguably the worst in the conference. This suggests failure by the offensive line and even worse failure by the running backs. Note how markedly better the Colorado and USC run games have been despite Football Outsiders judging their run blocking to be even worse than Stanford's.
Outside of the context of an idle message board debate, the real bottom line is what a Pac-12 assistant said in The Athletic article: Stanford can't run the ball worth a s!&@.

