05-14-2022, 05:47 PM
To renew or not to renew...
05-14-2022, 11:16 PM
Agreed… no way that a decision that involves a contract in the tens of millions doesn’t happen without the but in of at least Muir’s boss (Provost Drell) and probably her boss, not to mention sign off from legal, HR, Etc.
BC
BC
Agreed… no way that a decision that involves a contract in the tens of millions doesn’t happen without the but in of at least Muir’s boss (Provost Drell) and probably her boss, not to mention sign off from legal, HR, Etc.
BC
BC
05-15-2022, 04:25 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-15-2022, 04:28 AM by JohnR34231.)
(05-13-2022, 03:52 PM)McKenwood Wrote: Just told my AD minder I will not be renewing. Good guy so I felt bad telling him the news. Got an immediate email from someone on the development side. I told him that I wanted to hear from Shaw and Muir what they were doing to make it better. Those two need to convince me that is worth spending $100s of dollars per seat (when the non-deductible) contributions are factored in. Last year seats were available in my section for $25 per game on Stubhub. I suspect they will be cheaper this season.
Last time I didn't renew was after the 2005 season. Took awhile but the program took off to levels not even I could have imagined including two Rose Bowls wins and the epic AL win over SC in the Coliseum. So I am grateful for all of that but I don't like supporting a program where I feel more invested than some of the people running it.
Yeah, I've said that to myself often when Stanford football is in the doldrums. If the powers that be at Stanford don't care whether the football team is winning or not, why should I? I do have a tough time convincing myself though.
05-15-2022, 04:25 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-15-2022, 04:28 AM by JohnR34231.)
(05-13-2022, 03:52 PM)McKenwood Wrote: Just told my AD minder I will not be renewing. Good guy so I felt bad telling him the news. Got an immediate email from someone on the development side. I told him that I wanted to hear from Shaw and Muir what they were doing to make it better. Those two need to convince me that is worth spending $100s of dollars per seat (when the non-deductible) contributions are factored in. Last year seats were available in my section for $25 per game on Stubhub. I suspect they will be cheaper this season.
Last time I didn't renew was after the 2005 season. Took awhile but the program took off to levels not even I could have imagined including two Rose Bowls wins and the epic AL win over SC in the Coliseum. So I am grateful for all of that but I don't like supporting a program where I feel more invested than some of the people running it.
Yeah, I've said that to myself often when Stanford football is in the doldrums. If the powers that be at Stanford don't care whether the football team is winning or not, why should I? I do have a tough time convincing myself though.
05-15-2022, 05:45 PM
The calculus is pretty simple; if watching Stanford in person is worth the cost of the tickets, then renew; if watching Stanford has less value than the alternative, then don’t. In fact, for some of you, seeing the games in person may have negative value (they couldn’t pay me enough to watch the games). You are deluding yourself, though, if you think your actions will have second order effects in terms of the coaching staff. Probably the only person who could force a change is dead now.
BC
BC
The calculus is pretty simple; if watching Stanford in person is worth the cost of the tickets, then renew; if watching Stanford has less value than the alternative, then don’t. In fact, for some of you, seeing the games in person may have negative value (they couldn’t pay me enough to watch the games). You are deluding yourself, though, if you think your actions will have second order effects in terms of the coaching staff. Probably the only person who could force a change is dead now.
BC
BC
(05-14-2022, 11:16 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Agreed… no way that a decision that involves a contract in the tens of millions doesn’t happen without the but in of at least Muir’s boss (Provost Drell) and probably her boss, not to mention sign off from legal, HR, Etc.
BC
I never said it was his decision alone, but I believe the decision will begin with him. If the decision is pushed down on him, then he's in as much trouble as Shaw.
(05-14-2022, 11:16 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Agreed… no way that a decision that involves a contract in the tens of millions doesn’t happen without the but in of at least Muir’s boss (Provost Drell) and probably her boss, not to mention sign off from legal, HR, Etc.
BC
I never said it was his decision alone, but I believe the decision will begin with him. If the decision is pushed down on him, then he's in as much trouble as Shaw.
05-15-2022, 08:17 PM
Then the appropriate person to have noted that to was QWERTY, when he wrote:
You seemed to take issue with that statement, so you can understand why my interpretation was that you thought it was his decision.
BC
Quote: And in what universe would Muir be the sole decision-maker anyway?
You seemed to take issue with that statement, so you can understand why my interpretation was that you thought it was his decision.
BC
Then the appropriate person to have noted that to was QWERTY, when he wrote:
You seemed to take issue with that statement, so you can understand why my interpretation was that you thought it was his decision.
BC
Quote: And in what universe would Muir be the sole decision-maker anyway?
You seemed to take issue with that statement, so you can understand why my interpretation was that you thought it was his decision.
BC
05-16-2022, 09:34 AM
(05-14-2022, 05:47 PM)winflop Wrote:(05-13-2022, 03:25 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: And in what universe would Muir be the sole decision-maker anyway?
In the universe where Muir is Shaw's boss (which he is)
I mean, is he (at least in a meaningful sense)? I don't know exact salary levels but I'd imagine Shaw makes three to four times as much as Muir. Maybe more than that. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Shaw has contributed more to the university and has historically been seen as more indispensable than Muir by powers-that-be. I seriously doubt the arrangement is such that Muir feels comfortable giving Shaw orders, and I think that even if Muir decided he wanted Shaw to change something he wouldn’t feel emboldened to say so without university leadership agreeing. I get that there is an athletic department oversight function that the athletic director performs, including contemplating hiring and firing decisions, but in practice I would be surprised if this is a typical employer/employee kind of relationship. More like a senior department employee and a senior administrator. Too much of a power/prestige/salary asymmetry to think of Shaw as Muir's subordinate.
That's not to say situations couldn't occur in which Muir has to contemplate tough conversations with Shaw or even broach adverse personnel decisions, but it's a high bar, it's unclear whether Muir would initiate or follow signals from others, and Muir's sense of his own freedom of action may be related in various ways to his own job security (will he come at the king if university powers-that-be aren't happy with him)?
There are many here who know DAPER dynamics better than I do so I'd welcome any push-back/complexity to my narrative. But to me Muir being Shaw's "boss" has sounded very simplistic. Big-time college football coaches are much bigger deals for universities than athletic directors.
(05-14-2022, 05:47 PM)winflop Wrote:(05-13-2022, 03:25 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: And in what universe would Muir be the sole decision-maker anyway?
In the universe where Muir is Shaw's boss (which he is)
I mean, is he (at least in a meaningful sense)? I don't know exact salary levels but I'd imagine Shaw makes three to four times as much as Muir. Maybe more than that. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Shaw has contributed more to the university and has historically been seen as more indispensable than Muir by powers-that-be. I seriously doubt the arrangement is such that Muir feels comfortable giving Shaw orders, and I think that even if Muir decided he wanted Shaw to change something he wouldn’t feel emboldened to say so without university leadership agreeing. I get that there is an athletic department oversight function that the athletic director performs, including contemplating hiring and firing decisions, but in practice I would be surprised if this is a typical employer/employee kind of relationship. More like a senior department employee and a senior administrator. Too much of a power/prestige/salary asymmetry to think of Shaw as Muir's subordinate.
That's not to say situations couldn't occur in which Muir has to contemplate tough conversations with Shaw or even broach adverse personnel decisions, but it's a high bar, it's unclear whether Muir would initiate or follow signals from others, and Muir's sense of his own freedom of action may be related in various ways to his own job security (will he come at the king if university powers-that-be aren't happy with him)?
There are many here who know DAPER dynamics better than I do so I'd welcome any push-back/complexity to my narrative. But to me Muir being Shaw's "boss" has sounded very simplistic. Big-time college football coaches are much bigger deals for universities than athletic directors.
05-16-2022, 09:51 AM
(05-16-2022, 09:34 AM)msqueri Wrote: Big-time college football coaches are much bigger deals for universities than athletic directors.I think this is almost universally true. The AD probably has more power and influence behind the scenes than the public is aware of, but even so the football coach usually has a much stronger hand to play if push comes to shove. OTOH, whenever the AD has more "power", it indicates the coach has really failed and is on the way out anyway.
(05-16-2022, 09:34 AM)msqueri Wrote: Big-time college football coaches are much bigger deals for universities than athletic directors.I think this is almost universally true. The AD probably has more power and influence behind the scenes than the public is aware of, but even so the football coach usually has a much stronger hand to play if push comes to shove. OTOH, whenever the AD has more "power", it indicates the coach has really failed and is on the way out anyway.
05-16-2022, 10:56 AM
(05-15-2022, 05:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The calculus is pretty simple; if watching Stanford in person is worth the cost of the tickets, then renew; if watching Stanford has less value than the alternative, then don’t. In fact, for some of you, seeing the games in person may have negative value (they couldn’t pay me enough to watch the games). You are deluding yourself, though, if you think your actions will have second order effects in terms of the coaching staff. Probably the only person who could force a change is dead now.
BC
2019 was my final season as an STH after 49 years of ups and downs. Mostly downs but the HarbShaw era, 2009-2015, made it worthwhile. I realized during the Pandemic year, however, that the exasperating decline of The Program + the burden of co-hosting a tailgate where my connections to an ever-growing number of mooches attendees had grown steadily tenuous that it was no longer worth the aggravation. I turned out the chandelier lights after the '19 Big Game and I've never looked back. It was a good run but the party's over.
Life is too short to waste on crap football.
(05-15-2022, 05:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The calculus is pretty simple; if watching Stanford in person is worth the cost of the tickets, then renew; if watching Stanford has less value than the alternative, then don’t. In fact, for some of you, seeing the games in person may have negative value (they couldn’t pay me enough to watch the games). You are deluding yourself, though, if you think your actions will have second order effects in terms of the coaching staff. Probably the only person who could force a change is dead now.
BC
2019 was my final season as an STH after 49 years of ups and downs. Mostly downs but the HarbShaw era, 2009-2015, made it worthwhile. I realized during the Pandemic year, however, that the exasperating decline of The Program + the burden of co-hosting a tailgate where my connections to an ever-growing number of mooches attendees had grown steadily tenuous that it was no longer worth the aggravation. I turned out the chandelier lights after the '19 Big Game and I've never looked back. It was a good run but the party's over.
Life is too short to waste on crap football.
05-16-2022, 06:31 PM
(05-16-2022, 10:56 AM)gailtate Wrote:(05-15-2022, 05:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The calculus is pretty simple; if watching Stanford in person is worth the cost of the tickets, then renew; if watching Stanford has less value than the alternative, then don’t. In fact, for some of you, seeing the games in person may have negative value (they couldn’t pay me enough to watch the games). You are deluding yourself, though, if you think your actions will have second order effects in terms of the coaching staff. Probably the only person who could force a change is dead now.
BC
2019 was my final season as an STH after 49 years of ups and downs. Mostly downs but the HarbShaw era, 2009-2015, made it worthwhile. I realized during the Pandemic year, however, that the exasperating decline of The Program + the burden of co-hosting a tailgate where my connections to an ever-growing number of mooches attendees had grown steadily tenuous that it was no longer worth the aggravation. I turned out the chandelier lights after the '19 Big Game and I've never looked back. It was a good run but the party's over.
I'm sorry that I never had the opportunity to mooch off you. Right now, I feel like the Stanford Athletic Dept. is mooching off me, but I hope to be repaid with good football soon.
(05-16-2022, 10:56 AM)gailtate Wrote:(05-15-2022, 05:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The calculus is pretty simple; if watching Stanford in person is worth the cost of the tickets, then renew; if watching Stanford has less value than the alternative, then don’t. In fact, for some of you, seeing the games in person may have negative value (they couldn’t pay me enough to watch the games). You are deluding yourself, though, if you think your actions will have second order effects in terms of the coaching staff. Probably the only person who could force a change is dead now.
BC
2019 was my final season as an STH after 49 years of ups and downs. Mostly downs but the HarbShaw era, 2009-2015, made it worthwhile. I realized during the Pandemic year, however, that the exasperating decline of The Program + the burden of co-hosting a tailgate where my connections to an ever-growing number of mooches attendees had grown steadily tenuous that it was no longer worth the aggravation. I turned out the chandelier lights after the '19 Big Game and I've never looked back. It was a good run but the party's over.
I'm sorry that I never had the opportunity to mooch off you. Right now, I feel like the Stanford Athletic Dept. is mooching off me, but I hope to be repaid with good football soon.
05-16-2022, 08:09 PM
(05-16-2022, 09:34 AM)msqueri Wrote: That's not to say situations couldn't occur in which Muir has to contemplate tough conversations with Shaw or even broach adverse personnel decisions, but it's a high bar
A high bar? like a third full season in a row with 4 or fewer wins, and less than 15,000 season ticket holders?
(05-16-2022, 09:34 AM)msqueri Wrote: That's not to say situations couldn't occur in which Muir has to contemplate tough conversations with Shaw or even broach adverse personnel decisions, but it's a high bar
A high bar? like a third full season in a row with 4 or fewer wins, and less than 15,000 season ticket holders?
05-17-2022, 07:07 AM
(05-16-2022, 09:34 AM)msqueri Wrote:(05-14-2022, 05:47 PM)winflop Wrote:(05-13-2022, 03:25 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: And in what universe would Muir be the sole decision-maker anyway?
In the universe where Muir is Shaw's boss (which he is)
I mean, is he (at least in a meaningful sense)? I don't know exact salary levels but I'd imagine Shaw makes three to four times as much as Muir. Maybe more than that. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Shaw has contributed more to the university and has historically been seen as more indispensable than Muir by powers-that-be. I seriously doubt the arrangement is such that Muir feels comfortable giving Shaw orders, and I think that even if Muir decided he wanted Shaw to change something he wouldn’t feel emboldened to say so without university leadership agreeing. I get that there is an athletic department oversight function that the athletic director performs, including contemplating hiring and firing decisions, but in practice I would be surprised if this is a typical employer/employee kind of relationship. More like a senior department employee and a senior administrator. Too much of a power/prestige/salary asymmetry to think of Shaw as Muir's subordinate.
That's not to say situations couldn't occur in which Muir has to contemplate tough conversations with Shaw or even broach adverse personnel decisions, but it's a high bar, it's unclear whether Muir would initiate or follow signals from others, and Muir's sense of his own freedom of action may be related in various ways to his own job security (will he come at the king if university powers-that-be aren't happy with him)?
There are many here who know DAPER dynamics better than I do so I'd welcome any push-back/complexity to my narrative. But to me Muir being Shaw's "boss" has sounded very simplistic. Big-time college football coaches are much bigger deals for universities than athletic directors.
To me, the most intriguing thing about football and MBB at this moment is the looming fate of Muir and Shaw. Both are clearly past their expiration dates. As time passes and the losses pile up and fandom wanes, they're like a couple of mastodons in the Arrillaga living room. Somethin's gotta give. Can't wait to see which poobah at the university (Athletic Board level or Administration) will make the first move and who will wield the cattle prod.
Life is too short to waste on crap football.
(05-16-2022, 09:34 AM)msqueri Wrote:(05-14-2022, 05:47 PM)winflop Wrote:(05-13-2022, 03:25 PM)qwerty49 Wrote: And in what universe would Muir be the sole decision-maker anyway?
In the universe where Muir is Shaw's boss (which he is)
I mean, is he (at least in a meaningful sense)? I don't know exact salary levels but I'd imagine Shaw makes three to four times as much as Muir. Maybe more than that. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Shaw has contributed more to the university and has historically been seen as more indispensable than Muir by powers-that-be. I seriously doubt the arrangement is such that Muir feels comfortable giving Shaw orders, and I think that even if Muir decided he wanted Shaw to change something he wouldn’t feel emboldened to say so without university leadership agreeing. I get that there is an athletic department oversight function that the athletic director performs, including contemplating hiring and firing decisions, but in practice I would be surprised if this is a typical employer/employee kind of relationship. More like a senior department employee and a senior administrator. Too much of a power/prestige/salary asymmetry to think of Shaw as Muir's subordinate.
That's not to say situations couldn't occur in which Muir has to contemplate tough conversations with Shaw or even broach adverse personnel decisions, but it's a high bar, it's unclear whether Muir would initiate or follow signals from others, and Muir's sense of his own freedom of action may be related in various ways to his own job security (will he come at the king if university powers-that-be aren't happy with him)?
There are many here who know DAPER dynamics better than I do so I'd welcome any push-back/complexity to my narrative. But to me Muir being Shaw's "boss" has sounded very simplistic. Big-time college football coaches are much bigger deals for universities than athletic directors.
To me, the most intriguing thing about football and MBB at this moment is the looming fate of Muir and Shaw. Both are clearly past their expiration dates. As time passes and the losses pile up and fandom wanes, they're like a couple of mastodons in the Arrillaga living room. Somethin's gotta give. Can't wait to see which poobah at the university (Athletic Board level or Administration) will make the first move and who will wield the cattle prod.
Life is too short to waste on crap football.
(05-16-2022, 08:09 PM)winflop Wrote:(05-16-2022, 09:34 AM)msqueri Wrote: That's not to say situations couldn't occur in which Muir has to contemplate tough conversations with Shaw or even broach adverse personnel decisions, but it's a high bar
A high bar? like a third full season in a row with 4 or fewer wins, and less than 15,000 season ticket holders?
A high bar in the sense that things have to be really bad for Muir to come at the winningest coach in Stanford history and a coaching icon who Muir probably has a lot of respect for. That things have been so dire (multiple full seasons with four or fewer wins, dwindling season ticket numbers, very low excitement) without changes being made (not only that but the coaching staff returning intact and there being no evidence anybody is telling Shaw to change anything) reinforces my point: Muir won't take lightly the prospect of removing or disciplining Shaw. That Muir himself arguably has had an even worse track record and job security make it all the more complicated for him to consider that prospect. In practice, Muir may be a follower rather than a leader when it comes to accountability for Shaw. My sense, but again I could be wrong, is that Shaw being a legend and Muir not and Shaw being one of the highest paid figures in college sports history and Muir not raise psychological, power dynamic, and other barriers to the accountability people call on Muir to exercise.
Not to say I wouldn't like to see it. But I'm resigned to Shaw having at least a modicum of job security. Thinking realistically, I'd like to see Muir replaced ASAP and then the Shaw management decisions for the next AD could be made clearer by continuing irrelevance for the football program. A new person may feel more or less constrained to make a bold move, I don't know, but it's also possible the move could be less bold over time based on the results on the field. Also possible, of course, that Shaw moves on or slides into a different role of his own volition. There's been some speculation that he'd want to coach his son, which we're only a year and change away from. I'd pencil in December 2023 as the earliest we might have a changing of the guard, but I say that with low confidence.
(05-16-2022, 08:09 PM)winflop Wrote:(05-16-2022, 09:34 AM)msqueri Wrote: That's not to say situations couldn't occur in which Muir has to contemplate tough conversations with Shaw or even broach adverse personnel decisions, but it's a high bar
A high bar? like a third full season in a row with 4 or fewer wins, and less than 15,000 season ticket holders?
A high bar in the sense that things have to be really bad for Muir to come at the winningest coach in Stanford history and a coaching icon who Muir probably has a lot of respect for. That things have been so dire (multiple full seasons with four or fewer wins, dwindling season ticket numbers, very low excitement) without changes being made (not only that but the coaching staff returning intact and there being no evidence anybody is telling Shaw to change anything) reinforces my point: Muir won't take lightly the prospect of removing or disciplining Shaw. That Muir himself arguably has had an even worse track record and job security make it all the more complicated for him to consider that prospect. In practice, Muir may be a follower rather than a leader when it comes to accountability for Shaw. My sense, but again I could be wrong, is that Shaw being a legend and Muir not and Shaw being one of the highest paid figures in college sports history and Muir not raise psychological, power dynamic, and other barriers to the accountability people call on Muir to exercise.
Not to say I wouldn't like to see it. But I'm resigned to Shaw having at least a modicum of job security. Thinking realistically, I'd like to see Muir replaced ASAP and then the Shaw management decisions for the next AD could be made clearer by continuing irrelevance for the football program. A new person may feel more or less constrained to make a bold move, I don't know, but it's also possible the move could be less bold over time based on the results on the field. Also possible, of course, that Shaw moves on or slides into a different role of his own volition. There's been some speculation that he'd want to coach his son, which we're only a year and change away from. I'd pencil in December 2023 as the earliest we might have a changing of the guard, but I say that with low confidence.
05-17-2022, 08:36 AM
I agree with Matt. I find it hard to see a situation where Muir is going to fire Shaw. He lacks the political capital to do it, and things get so bad that he has no choice, his own job will be on the chopping block. Muir’s successor might.
BC
BC
I agree with Matt. I find it hard to see a situation where Muir is going to fire Shaw. He lacks the political capital to do it, and things get so bad that he has no choice, his own job will be on the chopping block. Muir’s successor might.
BC
BC
05-17-2022, 08:43 AM
(05-17-2022, 08:36 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I agree with Matt. I find it hard to see a situation where Muir is going to fire Shaw. He lacks the political capital to do it, and things get so bad that he has no choice, his own job will be on the chopping block. Muir’s successor might.
BC
I would be curious to know what constitutes "so bad he has no choice". 3-9, 4-8 type seasons in 2022 and 2023? Or would that even do it?
(05-17-2022, 08:36 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I agree with Matt. I find it hard to see a situation where Muir is going to fire Shaw. He lacks the political capital to do it, and things get so bad that he has no choice, his own job will be on the chopping block. Muir’s successor might.
BC
I would be curious to know what constitutes "so bad he has no choice". 3-9, 4-8 type seasons in 2022 and 2023? Or would that even do it?
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