07-28-2022, 10:52 AM
I didn't catch the humor but I bow to you. Went over my head I guess.
(07-28-2022, 10:21 AM)Jamesy Wrote: 1-11 seems harsh but not sure I see where another win would come from. We match up terribly vs WSU and Cal will be favored against us and those are our two "easiest" games based on Vegas win over/unders. The next two "easiest", OSU and ASU, crushed us last year.
(07-28-2022, 10:21 AM)Jamesy Wrote: 1-11 seems harsh but not sure I see where another win would come from. We match up terribly vs WSU and Cal will be favored against us and those are our two "easiest" games based on Vegas win over/unders. The next two "easiest", OSU and ASU, crushed us last year.
(07-28-2022, 10:55 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:(07-28-2022, 10:21 AM)Jamesy Wrote: 1-11 seems harsh but not sure I see where another win would come from. We match up terribly vs WSU and Cal will be favored against us and those are our two "easiest" games based on Vegas win over/unders. The next two "easiest", OSU and ASU, crushed us last year.
ASU is predicted by a bunch of pundits to finish dead last in the Pac-12 South. Yes, below Arizona and Colorado. Why were they good last year? They were old. Something like half their starters were 5th and 6th year seniors.
They lose 9 offensive starters and 8 defensive starters, including:
- Offense: their starting QB, top 4 of 5 WRs, top TE, top 2 RBs, and 3 of 5 starting OL.
- Defense: 3 of 4 starting DL (not including the stud who was SUPPOSED to start but got hurt and left anyway), their frosh All-American LB transferred to USC (ugh), and their entire starting secondary.
Of course, there is a major dip into the transfer portal for replacements (the new QB starter, Emory Jones from Florida, wasn't that good a passer but can run, and they are bringing in some P5 OL grad transfers), but this level of turnover is simply horrid. Anyone who has actually looked at their offseason would see they are a vulnerable team this year.
(07-28-2022, 10:55 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:(07-28-2022, 10:21 AM)Jamesy Wrote: 1-11 seems harsh but not sure I see where another win would come from. We match up terribly vs WSU and Cal will be favored against us and those are our two "easiest" games based on Vegas win over/unders. The next two "easiest", OSU and ASU, crushed us last year.
ASU is predicted by a bunch of pundits to finish dead last in the Pac-12 South. Yes, below Arizona and Colorado. Why were they good last year? They were old. Something like half their starters were 5th and 6th year seniors.
They lose 9 offensive starters and 8 defensive starters, including:
- Offense: their starting QB, top 4 of 5 WRs, top TE, top 2 RBs, and 3 of 5 starting OL.
- Defense: 3 of 4 starting DL (not including the stud who was SUPPOSED to start but got hurt and left anyway), their frosh All-American LB transferred to USC (ugh), and their entire starting secondary.
Of course, there is a major dip into the transfer portal for replacements (the new QB starter, Emory Jones from Florida, wasn't that good a passer but can run, and they are bringing in some P5 OL grad transfers), but this level of turnover is simply horrid. Anyone who has actually looked at their offseason would see they are a vulnerable team this year.
(07-28-2022, 11:22 AM)msqueri Wrote: Stanford, Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington State, and Cal all look like very mediocre teams, squarely bottom half of Power Five conference teams. At that level games are really tossups. When somebody says these teams will be "favored" over Stanford, we're probably talking about them being favored by 1-4 points. This is the mediocre morass.
A related point: part of the reason I like things like Sagarin is to have a more insightful picture on team quality than the information captured in a simple win-loss record. The truth is that there is not much difference between 3/4/5 win teams.
And for those who don't like the Poindexter-esque hairsplitting of things like Sagarin I think the basic insight of what I'm saying is that evaluating our season is actually pretty simple: getting to a sixth win is a simple binary test of whether the season is acceptable or not. I really can't imagine a losing season that would be encouraging (ok, maybe if there are multiple competitive losses AND McKee and the offensive line come back.....yeah right). Given the questions around the program, a bowl could be something to build on. It's about whether we can beat the mediocre teams and take one or two wins that look like long shots right now. And we shouldn't exaggerate how long the shots are as some of the games this thread isn't even talking about as winnable (Washington, UCLA) are also pretty mediocre teams (7-9-ish point spreads only because we're on the road).
(07-28-2022, 11:22 AM)msqueri Wrote: Stanford, Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington State, and Cal all look like very mediocre teams, squarely bottom half of Power Five conference teams. At that level games are really tossups. When somebody says these teams will be "favored" over Stanford, we're probably talking about them being favored by 1-4 points. This is the mediocre morass.
A related point: part of the reason I like things like Sagarin is to have a more insightful picture on team quality than the information captured in a simple win-loss record. The truth is that there is not much difference between 3/4/5 win teams.
And for those who don't like the Poindexter-esque hairsplitting of things like Sagarin I think the basic insight of what I'm saying is that evaluating our season is actually pretty simple: getting to a sixth win is a simple binary test of whether the season is acceptable or not. I really can't imagine a losing season that would be encouraging (ok, maybe if there are multiple competitive losses AND McKee and the offensive line come back.....yeah right). Given the questions around the program, a bowl could be something to build on. It's about whether we can beat the mediocre teams and take one or two wins that look like long shots right now. And we shouldn't exaggerate how long the shots are as some of the games this thread isn't even talking about as winnable (Washington, UCLA) are also pretty mediocre teams (7-9-ish point spreads only because we're on the road).
(07-28-2022, 02:40 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: Most of you seem like nattering nabobs of negativity. This is a fan site. I'm taking the over and feel good about it.
(07-28-2022, 02:40 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: Most of you seem like nattering nabobs of negativity. This is a fan site. I'm taking the over and feel good about it.
(07-28-2022, 03:09 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:(07-28-2022, 02:40 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: Most of you seem like nattering nabobs of negativity. This is a fan site. I'm taking the over and feel good about it.
I hear you. I am usually with you on this. The fact that we're all still here after the last few years proves that our fanaticism is unimpeachable.
But I have to ask - did you attend the Utah game last year? Or try to watch it? I forced myself to remember that visceral feeling of watching our team be utterly dominated when avoiding the "over" pick for this season. We did not even deserve to be on the same field with Utah last year. They did to us what we would do to Rice or Sacramento State.
So my motto for this season is, "Don't expect too much - you might be disappointed." I would love to be pleasantly surprised, though.
(07-28-2022, 03:09 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:(07-28-2022, 02:40 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: Most of you seem like nattering nabobs of negativity. This is a fan site. I'm taking the over and feel good about it.
I hear you. I am usually with you on this. The fact that we're all still here after the last few years proves that our fanaticism is unimpeachable.
But I have to ask - did you attend the Utah game last year? Or try to watch it? I forced myself to remember that visceral feeling of watching our team be utterly dominated when avoiding the "over" pick for this season. We did not even deserve to be on the same field with Utah last year. They did to us what we would do to Rice or Sacramento State.
So my motto for this season is, "Don't expect too much - you might be disappointed." I would love to be pleasantly surprised, though.
(07-28-2022, 10:13 AM)chrisk Wrote: Friday is PAC-12 media day. Shaw is on at 11:15am.
(07-28-2022, 04:51 PM)BostonCard Wrote: weird stuff does happen, like the wins against Oregon and USC last year.
BC
(07-28-2022, 10:13 AM)chrisk Wrote: Friday is PAC-12 media day. Shaw is on at 11:15am.
(07-28-2022, 04:51 PM)BostonCard Wrote: weird stuff does happen, like the wins against Oregon and USC last year.
BC
(07-29-2022, 05:23 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Stanford sure picked a terrible time to suck in Football. When you need your team to be relevant, putting butts in seats, and getting eyeballs on TV to enhance your media rights value for the next contract, you are the worst you have been in 15 years.
I have so little confidence in David Shaw to coach his team to anything other than irrelevant mediocrity that I can't even bring myself to care who the players are this year. He could change my mind if he outperforms my meager expectations, but my confidence that he will is zero.
(07-29-2022, 05:23 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Stanford sure picked a terrible time to suck in Football. When you need your team to be relevant, putting butts in seats, and getting eyeballs on TV to enhance your media rights value for the next contract, you are the worst you have been in 15 years.
I have so little confidence in David Shaw to coach his team to anything other than irrelevant mediocrity that I can't even bring myself to care who the players are this year. He could change my mind if he outperforms my meager expectations, but my confidence that he will is zero.
(07-29-2022, 05:00 AM)winflop Wrote: And weird stuff like losing your last seven games by a combined total of 255-100 also happens.
(07-29-2022, 05:23 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I have so little confidence in David Shaw to coach his team to anything other than irrelevant mediocrity that I can't even bring myself to care who the players are this year. He could change my mind if he outperforms my meager expectations, but my confidence that he will is zero.
(07-29-2022, 05:00 AM)winflop Wrote: And weird stuff like losing your last seven games by a combined total of 255-100 also happens.
(07-29-2022, 05:23 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: I have so little confidence in David Shaw to coach his team to anything other than irrelevant mediocrity that I can't even bring myself to care who the players are this year. He could change my mind if he outperforms my meager expectations, but my confidence that he will is zero.