09-13-2023, 11:21 AM
(09-13-2023, 11:02 AM)Mick Wrote: Taylor's not really the EUTM type. And this is a team that needs someone who coaches like his hair is on fire. This is an urgent / emergent situation. And it's too bad we started against USC, but we can right the ship against Sacramento State.
The big game will actually be Arizona. That will tell whether this team is irreparably broken or not. Arizona and Stanford are #88 and #89 in RPI rankings. BTW, half of the conference is ranked in the top 17 in this (more or less) objective ranking and eight are in the Top 31. And my guess is that #31 will keep climbing. The remaining four -- Arizona, Stanford, Cal and Arizona State -- are #88, #89, #94 and #100, respectively. Arizona and Cal are on the schedule. Who knows? Maybe 4-8 is possible.
RealTimeRPI.com College Football
I personally think Sagarin has a better empirical track record than RPI. For what's it worth (not much for another several weeks when the data is better), here's how Sagarin handicaps our schedule:
@ Hawaii - WIN
@ USC - LOSS
Sacramento State - 63 percent
Arizona - 34 percent
Oregon - 4 percent
@ Colorado - 22 percent
UCLA - 17 percent
Washington - 4 percent
@ Washington State - 8 percent
@ Oregon State - 0 percent
Cal - 25 percent
Notre Dame - 0 percent
Projected win total: 2.77
This expectation of three wins with two being more likely than four compares unfavorably to what this exercise produced when handicapping our schedule against a baseline assumption that teams would be the same as they were last year (obviously false but for the purposes of off-season handicapping a useful assumption). The reason for that is that Arizona, Colorado, and Washington State, Cal, and Notre Dame all look very significantly improved. Washington looks a bit worse but very marginally compared to the significant improvements elsewhere. This schedule is brutal in a way we couldn't have expected. These improved teams all had cases to be made by their partisans that they were poised for improvement, but one could have just as easily been skeptical. As it's happened, they've all delivered so far. After Saturday every single game we play is against a team currently in the top 63. That's rough for a team currently barely in the top 100.
Going into the year 3-5 wins looked like the best bet but right now you'd have to say 2-4.
Arizona definitely a big game. Too early to say "irreparably" regardless of what happens.


